Forvm Debate: Subsidies
Resolved: Government subsidies for private activity are, in general, a bad idea. They become worse ideas to the extent they are indirectly related to the activity one wishes to subsidize and to the extent that they are long-lasting in nature.
Subsidy Tenure Is Bad: The longer the subsidy is in force, or the longer it is expected to be in force, the more market participants are tempted to factor it into their calculations and modify, that is, distort, their behavior. Credibly tell a banker that you will absorb his losses for the next ten years and he will instantaneously get busy writing a 10 year business plan wherein he will loan money to anybody that can make it through his door, with or without a pulse. Credibly tell an unemployed guy with a degree in basket-weaving that you will cover his living expenses for the next five years, and he will probably not feel a great deal of anxiety about either his lack of job or lack of marketable skills. He may decide to go skiing. Etc.
Indirectness is Bad: If you have a bunch of people working in a buggy-whip factory which is under pressure from either A) those new-fangled car contraptions or B) a cheap-labor buggy-whip factory in Lower Ruritania, about the worst way to help them would be to prevent the adoption of cars or prevent the import of Ruritanian buggy-whips, both very indirect methods of subsidizing the buggy-whip makers. In both cases, you are merely postponing the inevitable. The adoption of new products, such as the car, are driven either by consumer desire or by increased productivity available via said adoption. In the case of the overseas factory, I will merely link to the theory of comparative advantage and note that, if Ruritania has a comparative advantage in buggy-whip manufacture (which, by definition, means you have a comparative advantage in something else), you are damaging everybody's outcomes by not allowing it to operate. If you feel bad for the domestic buggy-whip factory workers, train them to do something else or give them a handout. You don't screw up the adoption of new technology or price signals nearly as much as the warmer, fuzzier but ultimately more damaging forms of support found in tariffs and bans.
--
The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
--
The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
- Bernard Guerrero's blog
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screws. Or wooden pegs or glue or dovetail joints or really good balance.
Point being there is nothing per se wrong with subsidies. While I agree they tend to have adverse consequences and should be used sparingly, that's true of unconstrained price controls, traditional customs, haruspication, or just about any other system of distribution. When market signals lead to conditions unfavorable a large enough or influential enough group of people, then government intervention is a perfectly legitimate tool for addressing the problem. Subsidies are no more or less efficient than price signals -- depending of course on what you consider efficient. If buggy whips are an important cultural product, then subsidies are a highly efficient way to preserve them against encroachment from louder, smoggier forms of travel.
The example of protectionist laws for traditional European regions/products/ways of life has been given. Palaces and castles make damn poor living quarters by comparison with structures built out of modern materials, but they embody principles & heritage the local culture feels is worth a few drafty rooms.
It's best to think of governments in economic terms as big purchasers. Wal Mart is a behemoth that makes purchasing decisions based on maximizing its own interests; so do governments at an even larger scale. If what a government wants to "buy" is preservation of parkland or traditional methods of farming (or farming altogether from being exported), so long as the government has an abiding interest (voter support) in doing so, it is a perfectly efficient and rational decision.
So much for the abstract. This entire issue quickly becomes entangled in rentseeking, and these efficiencies go out the window.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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)"postponing inevitabilities" as evidence of why indirect subsidies are bad? Among a population of free willed beings?
Control of monopolies is a necessary function of government because sin exists in the world. Yes subsidies can be bad.
How about a combination of state and federal subsidies to build three new state of the art oil refineries in balanced distribution points throughout the US as a national security issue? And as breaking an English monopoly on American gas.
Matthew 11:15 He that has ears to hear, let him hear.
In the Name of Jesus Christ, Amen
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| parent )Your disbelief in "free will" has apparently never had to take into account NIMBY.
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )on a population wide basis would mean that NIMBY would evaporate.
The unrest and infighting is specifically caused by the lie of free will as each is deceived they contest against each other for dominance, or at least preservation, of their own ..free will.
John 3:9 Nicodemus answered and said to him, How can these things be?
In the Name of Jesus Christ, Amen
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| parent )Manish Ghosh
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)Are subsidies bad? Judging from the threads, the answer would start with the further question, "What are you subsidizing?"
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )Manish Ghosh
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| parent ).
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )Manish Ghosh
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| parent ).
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )...to your "Obama does in better with..." post, actually.
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )Especially at US Dept of Agriculture, I know more about subsidies than are strictly good for anyone.
The problem isn't the subsidy per-se. Others have noted the caveats in their comments below. Subsidies are naked quid pro quo. The Farm Bill of 2002 was a blatant payoff for those who voted for the Iraq War. Only the politically connected get subsidized. When we took the agribusiness complex off their subsidies, they whined to their Congresscritters, arguing they could not compete with other countries who subsidized their farmers. There's a note of truth to that, but it's the outfits like Conagra who benefit most from ag subsidies.
What is the practical difference between a subsidy and a tax loophole? I see none. Those who wax wroth, sputtering about subsidies should view the tax loophole as a subsidy turned inside out.
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)If you elect folks whose philosophy of governance is to sell the government to the highest bidder, it turns out that they sell the government to the highest bidder.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )[Redacted until later.]
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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)The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )it was later the moment I hit "Post."
"You're older than you've ever been and now you're even older.
--And now you're even older.
And now you're even older."
It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )The theory of comparative advantage is excellent on the micro level and terrible on the macro level. Here is why:
1) Time. Comparative advantage is a discussion of a snapshot in time and how specialization can produce tremendous results during that period. However, it does not handle macro effects on an economy of this sort of specialization, such as growth, risk, externalities, morality, and transition costs.
1a) Growth. If one specializes into a low-growth set of industries, then one cannot take advantage of high-growth sets of industries. Furthermore, it may be that a certain mix of industries (financial, service, and manufacturing) is the optimal approach for engendering productivity improvements. We simply don't know.
1b) Risk. If you put all your eggs in one basket, you can often get a great basket, but woe betide you if it slips. This is a bigger deal for nations that aren't as enormous as us, but if you bet the farm on only a few industries, you are massively increasing the probability that you will lose it. I am consistently baffled by economists that recommend that entire nations take on levels of risk from failure to diversify that they would never recommend for individual investors.
1c) Externalities. What is the cost of the disappearance of middle class status for persons with high school diplomas and less? That's half of our adult population. There are enormous political costs created by that transition, including the destruction of a political center capable of muddling through between the radicals on both sides.
1d) Morality. It is, in a sense, immoral for us to support a system built on slave (or near-slave) labor. If specialization moves a tremendous amount of work over to a location which is particularly brutal, that would be an issue.
1e) Transition costs. Yes, once one is specialized, one enjoys tremendous gains. But the world economy is fantastically dynamic; what is your clear area of specialization today may not be what is your clear area of specialization in ten years. That's a lot of capital, education, and human expertise you just made useless. But eventually, GDP will go up again! Unless you transition again . . .
All of these, of course, can be mitigated by various policies. But they serve as counterweights to Ricardo's simple partial equilibrium analysis.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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)I see nothing at all wrong with the Government helping the market invest in places it normally wouldn't. Revitalizing an old mill building might be too much for the market to do on its own but with gov't help that revitalization might lead to the revitalization of a whole section of a city. I have seen it happen in Lowell, Massachusetts. Lowell is still a bit of a sh!thole but it is about 567% better than it was 20 years ago. I doubt that improvement would have happened w/o gov't help.
The problems with subsidies arise when they stop benefiting the community as a whole and start benefiting specific individuals/organizations. If politicians had the stones to end subsidies when they stopped producing the benefits they were intended for then I don't think we would be having this discussion. IRL however politicians don't have the political will to administer subsidies properly.
--"Please don't correct me, it sickens me. " - Mr. Furious
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)One of the things I find amusing about the global warming deniers, and those who claim starting to move to a post-carbon energy system will "wreck the economy" is that they sound exactly like those buggy whip manufacturers you describe.
--"Substandard performance has been a trademark of the Bush administration.." - Bird Dog
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)I think the entire debate is poisoned at some level by the identification of environmentalism with a sort of Luddism. And I don't think it's an entirely unjustified indentification. When I see some Earth Liberation Front numbskull burning cars or some "anti-natalist" saying the Earth would be better off without human beings, my immediate reaction is to reach for my gun (metaphorically speaking.) The assumption by many on the right, I think, is that the whole thing is a stalking horse for a forced change of living standards and beliefs that we largely don't buy into.
That said, your point has truth. A change to a low carbon "footprint", assuming it does not involve a regression in technology or living standards, might impose costs but is not going to "wreck" anything.
The real question is, is it worth it? I don't believe in Stern's miniscule discounting. Clearly nobody does, or our behaviors would be different in a million different ways. So what are the reasonable estimates of damage
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )New technology, new engineering, new materials, transportation, IT and all that.
I learnt recently (partly from the forvm) that some of the anti GW groups were associated at different times partly or wholly with being pro tobacco advertising, anti seat belt legislation and of course creationism. That company doesn't help their cause either.
--Manish Ghosh
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| parent ). . .that we've already seen that regression in technology does take place when these changes are made, at least in cases where the new technology isn't ready to replace it.* Low-flow toilet technology was still inferior when the regulations forcing their use went into place--to the point where some people were actually using more water with them than with the old ones. CFLs are improved from where the technology was years ago, but it still has problems and LED lighting sources will be ready to go in a few years--why force a change now? The whole SUV controversy occurred because people got tired of driving in tiny cars forced on them by MPG standards. If you force change before the new technology is ready to go, standard of living drops. Period.
*--which is why the buggy whip comparison is and has always been lame--the buggy whip manufacturers were put out of business by a new, superior technology that didn't require the heavy hand of government to get rid of those pesky buggies.
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| parent )I don't know if you have kids, Scott, but if you do (or if you can borrow some) try fitting three car seats into a typical bench seat. Three rows of seating doesn't look like such a luxury anymore.
The SUV craze in general, though, was a result of off-road vehicles being successfully marketed as a "lifestyle," as if owning an Explorer made you Paul Hogan or Indiana Jones. Having owned two SUV's in my life* I can tell you it's an easy trap to fall into. I can also tell you that in the 10 total years I owned those two vehicles, I needed the extra ground clearance and four wheel drive exactly once, and that involved me driving during a snowstorm I had no business being out in.
*an Isuzu Trooper and a Jeep Grand Cherokee, if you're a car geek like me and care about such things.
--"Substandard performance has been a trademark of the Bush administration.." - Bird Dog
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| parent )I agree with dionysus & Wagster that there definitely are such things as "good subsidies". Some subsidies solve problems that are insoluble by the market: two examples would be investments that are too long-term and high-risk for the market to take on by itself (like medical research or space exploration), and payouts to defuse the tragedy of the commons (for example, incentivizing loggers not to cut old-growth forests, or consumers to buy fluorescent bulbs).
In general, though, I agree. "Subsidies", as the term is usually applied, are usually bad. Protectionism is pretty much always bad. (Though reciprocal protectionism can be justified.) Ag subsidies are downright awful, have distorted the American economy in very ugly directions, and will never go away.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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)I see no evidence of this. To the contrary both public and privately-held companies plow quite a bit into at least some forms of medical research. I think you're thinking of public health issues where there is no clear way to monetize your good efforts.
Create a transferable property right and you no longer have a commons-problem.
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )I've been reading up a bit on those. I like the idea, but isn't it still, essentially, a subsidy? It seems to me that encouraging investment in alternative energy (for example) by levying carbon taxes on polluters is a difference in practice, rather than a difference in principle, from traditional "I'm going to give you $X to work on alternative fuels" subsidies.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )I agree with you. But...
Sometimes the market does not recognize some values. In general, I am opposed to agricultural subsidies, but I have to have some sympathy for the French when they argue that they are protecting the nature of their countryside, their essence as a country. (The American version of this argument tends to just be a bid for sympathy for the family farmer, who proportionately isn't a big beneficiary of farm subsidies.) Anyone who's spent time in the French countryside knows there's a wealth there that isn't factored in land values. It does translate into $ in tourism, for instance. But even if it didn't, it still enhances French lives.
(And as I write this I'm planning a visit to Burgundy in the summer.)
--More Wagster!
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)It's wasteful romanticism. It does nothing.
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| parent )There is value in the esthetic. I'm talking about quality of life value, as well as economic value. New York would be an unlivable mess without some city planning that costs a little in profit to developers, but pays back a lot in attracting business to a livable city and attracting tourists to an attractive city.
The market is wonderful but it does not recognize all values.
--More Wagster!
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| parent )That's not a very objective statement. Planning and real estate restrictions make NYC, among other cities like SF, far more expensive than they otherwise would be. This actually then contributed to sprawl and people try to escape. Real estate then becomes more expensive where the sprawl goes.
These matters are multi-dimensional matters. Everything is interconnected.
Besides, these subsidies, as you said, are not for the small farmer. He'd do better without Agribusiness getting them.
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| parent )As I wrote this response above, I was thinking about the chapter on urban fallacies I just finished in Thomas Sowell's latest book Economic Facts and Fallacies where he talks about these very issues.
Then, as I'm checking my Google Reader, I find this latest entry at EconLog.
Weird. :)
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| parent )Most of the construction in NYC would be just of luxury apartments. The Bloomberg administration has been insisting on low-cost housing as well.
See more below to respond to your problems with Urban planning.
--More Wagster!
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| parent )Previous restrictions on rent levels and land use have created the side effects and the high cost market and loopholes that make luxury housing construction what it is.
Like I always say to liberals, use your ability to judge foreign affairs and the justifications for current actions from a more global perspective in the domestic realm as well.
"Blow back" can apply to economic issues as well.
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| parent )You're lumping rent controls now with urban planning. I'm not going to defend rent controls.
You accused me of being a romantic once, but I think you're crushed-out on the purity of an idea: free markets. I have great respect for them, but they sometimes fail and have to be teased and cajoled into better shape.
--More Wagster!
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| parent )rent controls deserve a mention when we talk about the reality in which luxury housing construction exists in NYC. How could we not??
It's not that I'm lumping them together. It simply belongs in the discussion if we are going to judge current conditions.
No need to use the word "accuse". I'm not being snippy...no need for you to be either. We are just talking here. :)
My point is simply that planning and rent control BOTH have consequences. We should always bear them in mind when discuss current context because they helped shape the reality of that context.
I think that's a simple and valid point that must be kept in mind.
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| parent )De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum. Who gets to pick the esthetic?
Beyond that, though, it appears to me that most developers have a vested interest in seeing amenities somewhere nearby wherever they're building for residential use. People explicitly look for this stuff when they search for a home. So developers put up parks, etc. (Heck, they helped subsidize what amounts to a town indoor waterpark where we're renting right now.) The market recognizes whatever the people that make up the market recognize.
And as beautiful as Central Park is, why should we believe that Frederick Law Olmsted came up with the optimal solution to the problem described above? The realestate that directly surrounds CP egts a huge implicit subsidy compared to people at a greater distance.
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )In the suburbs it's true, developers put up green space, but please name one urban developer in New York who has sacrificed expensive land for green space. (Not as a deal with the city to get a right to build higher vertically.) It's a fantasy. Doesn't happen. The idea that the market would create anything equivalent to Central Park by itself is crazy.
Los Angeles was offered a Olmsted plan for urban development round the turn of the century. They spurned it. Los Angeles is what you get when you don't plan. Houston is what you get.
As to who gets to pick the esthetic... do you like traffic? do you like crowded sidewalks? do you like dark streets? do you like no place in your city to stop and sit? It ain't that much in the eye of the beholder.
--More Wagster!
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| parent )I know you consider them wasteful and prone to stupid mistakes, but I'll take that over the reign of Bernard the Terrible anyday.
--Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand. - Deep Throat
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| parent )that might doesn't always make right.
Our Bill of Rights (which isn't long enough, IMHO)is an undemocratic document. It protects us from democracy.
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| parent )but it's interesting that the framers didn't go beyond the idea of "no taxation without representation" as the extent of incorporating economics into the founding documents. They left all discussion of taxation, budgeting, etc. as a purely political issues, which was the proper thing to do IMO. This is one of those struggles that will never be resolved until economics, psychology and sociology become exact sciences - in other words, not in our lifetime.
--Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand. - Deep Throat
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| parent )Understanding something doesn't necessarily give you the power to do anything about it. I always thought the most fanciful conceit of the Foundation novels was, not that we'd someday invent psychohistory, but that we could actually use it the way Hari Seldon did.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )... so until its development we don't know whether utilizing it widely is a fanciful conceit or a necessary outcome of its invention.
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| parent )I'm hurt. Bernard le Magne, surely!
And the votes aren't wasted, they keep everybody on-side, so to speak, no matter how mistaken they may be.
But anyway, now you're going to vote to cram taste down people's throats? Why? How about keeping such projects local and private and letting people move to places where, you know, they enjoy the aesthetic?
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )but certainly, as someone attuned to the "party of moral values", you can't be surprised that implied aesthetics aren't embedded in the choices one makes, both local and national. You're familiar, I'm sure, with how "family owned farms" are used to justify industrial farming subsidies. Once you start using those emotional appeals (which started, I'm guessing, with the first democratic decisions) you completely lose the idea of limited government. Based on the statements of politicians, I'd say that "limited government" has become merely an aesthetic choice as well.
BTW, How would you say "King Bernardo, slayer of the lower half of the distribution curve" in Latin?
--Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand. - Deep Throat
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| parent )Bernardus Rex et Imperator, macellarius curvi dispensati dimidi inferiori.
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| parent )the butcher of-the-curve of-the-distribution of-the-half of-those-below.
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| parent )In Greek it might be something like Bernard Autokrator Penasktonos?
--The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
- H.L. Mencken
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| parent )-o-0-o-
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )Subsidies are a bad idea. PERIOD.
The debate isn't really on economics of it. They are bad. No way around it.
The problem is in the dynamics of government and how money is allocated and kept that way. By that I mean that vested parties are more likely to organize and entrench themselves while the public at large cannot and will not. Small groups have a insurmountable advantage to the semi-apathetic public.
Funny, not to plug the book again but, The Logic of Life actually covers the political economics of this in depressing detail. I have little hope.
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)There's certainly an argument to be made for government subsidized basic research -- even if it's massively inefficient and wasteful, funding lots of bad ideas, the small minority that pan out can have returns like the computer you're using that the market wasn't demanding. Every step of the interface I'm typing in now, the GUI (PARC), the object model underneath it (PARC) in the computer, and the network to the forvm's servers (DARPA) were all funded by wasteful gov't subsidy. Xerox (yes, xerox) and the telecoms maintained the research labs as tax shelters and subsidy magnets until it wasn't profitable to do so anymore.
If you meant production subsidies, then I'm in wholehearted agreement aside from maybe a couple areas of national security (i believe we subsidize a few very high precision ball bearing plants, for example).
Then there's global warming -- not sure of your opinion on the matter but you seem scientific so I'll assume you think it's worth insuring ourselves against. If we want to push the economy off of carbon or at least oil for national security reasons, how do we do so? I'm inclined to think that subsidizing ethanol is an inferior solution to taxing oil and letting ethanol or the next best alternative present itself through the market. But then you get into "tax! BLAHHH!" from the rightward side of the aisle before actually discussing whether it's the best method to spur alternative energy. I say tax every gallon of gas and fund the military off of it -- that's a clearer incentive path to paying for what you get than the market is currently providing.
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| parent )I make a distinction between grants for research in education and the industrial and production variety. I'm referring to the latter.
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| parent )Look at the ratio of dollars spent between the two :)
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| parent )More research dollars spent on AIDS than on cancer?
More money spent on Fish & Wildlife than on alternate energy R&D?
Who hired these clowns? Oh, wait, we did.
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )If a mutation which makes it less vulnerable to air exposure were to come about . . . gah . . .
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )because I have (or had) close relatives who died from it.
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )Virus vs genetic defect... the virus is a bit more promising to find a fix for. And there's lots of private money going into cancer research because of people like you. So it might be that net-net, from the gov'ts point of view, there's more of a need for aids funding than cancer funding.
Of course, who knows :) Just saying
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| parent )That the government should get out of the business of making grants for medical research then?
--More Wagster!
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| parent )To me, that's educational grants and falls into different category for me.
I'm talking about subsidies to keep companies and certain industries more competitive than they otherwise would be.
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| parent )