2013 predictions

Bird Dog's picture

But first, let's check out how where I screwed up on my 2012 predictions. For one, this blog is still around but it seems quieter. Mission half accomplished. On Afghanistan, I was half wrong as the Taliban is not noticeably weaker. The Dems do not have a slimmer majority in the Senate, thanks to the chuckleheads who nominated Mourdock and Akin. Assad isn't gone but he's on the ropes. On Egypt, I was half wrong. The Islamists in power aren't interested giving the Egyptian people more freedom. Kim Jong Un hasn't yet killed any South Koreans that I know of. Overall, not great but not bad.

On to 2013:

1. The economy will muddle along. I don't foresee a recession, but there won't be a lot of growth.

2. The debt ceiling will get raised after ugly rounds of vitriol.

3. A tax-and-spending deal will get struck after ugly rounds of vitriol.

4. We'll have another trillion dollar annual deficit.

5. Immigration reform and all other major pieces of legislation will go nowhere.

6. Given this, Obama will legislate by executive order. Stroke of the pen. Law of the land. Kinda cool.

6. Afghanistan will not improve.

7. Syria will worsen, which will stress Iraqi politics.

8. Greece will not improve.

9. No substantive changes to China's politics or economy.

10. No major agreement for Israel-Palestine.

11. Iran won't get its atomic bomb in 2013, but will edge closer.

12. I agree with this Foreign Policy article. Eight of the ten major conflicts in 2013 will involve the 21st century religion of violence on one or both sides.

13. The WAMI will still be around, thanks in part to the increasing Islamist political influence in the Middle East and Africa.

14. The Mariners will be north of .500, which isn't saying much since Angels will win it all.

15. You heard it here. The Seahawks will win the Superbowl.

That's all for now. I'll add as I see fit.

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Wrong on the Forvm

(#298534)

The site isn't quieter. It's running with the consistency of a jet engine:

 

2011

Page loads: 492,665

Unique visits: 158,180

Comments: 25,400

 

2012 (so far)

Page loads: 499,125

Unique visits: 201,587

Comments: 26,500

 

 

I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.

The numbers don't lie I suppose

(#298540)

but I do recall a few dead periods.  Periods with just a few comments in a day and I think that's kind of new.  The big thing is that it looks like we've lost more regulars than we've picked up in the last few years.  I truly wish some of the lurkers would post more.

In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome. 

Ehhh.

(#298728)

What's there to say, really?

A man must be orthodox upon most things, or he will never even have time to preach his own heresy.

 

Hobbesist, you could start with "Darth, you're right!"

(#298742)

.

In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome. 

We haven't had any diaries about your sexcapades lately

(#298731)

I miss the updates.

Here's a graph of the last three years

(#298552)
HankP's picture

 

That little gap above the "v" in 27 Nov is when we switched hosts, which reduced a lot of non-human traffic. The spike near the end is when we got heavily spammed. Other than that ,it's been pretty consistent. Also consistent is that we're always slow in December.

 

I blame it all on the Internet

The yellow slice gets

(#298558)

The yellow slice gets thinner.

Doesn't necessarily mean anything

(#298559)
HankP's picture

that's "returning visitors", and is tracked using a cookie. So anyone who clears their browser cache or deletes cookies (which is pretty common) reduces that number. What really matters is the blue, that's unique visitors. And that's been pretty consistent.

I blame it all on the Internet

About those numbers

(#298536)
HankP's picture

when we got slammed with spam we got ~50K - 75K fake hits. So the numbers are somewhat distorted for 2012.

 

I blame it all on the Internet

Well...

(#298561)

It's not like there was zero spam in 2011. I know I deleted a bunch. In any case, in unique visits 2012 has a 40K advantage. I'll give you all of those and we still break even.

 

Considering we are ignoring any kind of integration to Facebook, Twitter, etc., we could be doing worse.

I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.

Off-year elections

(#298520)

Christie will be reelected handily.  McDonnell will edge out a squeaker despite losing independants by a lot because few people will bother to turn out for McAuliffe.

 

Kirsten Gillibrand and Marco Rubio lay groundwork for their successful runs at the 2016 nominations.

 

The Falcons win the Super Bowl because they haven't been tanking like the Ravens and NFL playoffs are actually kind of predictable most of the time.

Shorter BD

(#298495)

Amid stagnation, Go Seahawks!

Well, yeah

(#298500)
Bird Dog's picture

Except for advances in technology and those 'Hawks, I predict that 2013 will be a big fat load of nothing.

"Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency."

--Barack Obama, January 2009

The Seahawks are a big surprise, to me anyway

(#298700)

they really started just clubbing their opponents in December. 

 

The Redskins are another surprise - I did not see them winning 7 straight after a 3-6 start.

 

Between the Seahawks (5Ws in a row), Redskins (7Ws), and Broncos (11Ws), there's some teams with serious momentum going into the playoffs.

Even with a bad knee,

(#298708)
Bird Dog's picture

RGIII is scary good. I watched him shred the Huskies in the Whatever Bowl last year, so he has a record of stepping up in big moments.

The Seahawks are all healthy and we have Brandon Browner back, and Russell Wilson has grown into the job, so I like our chances this Saturday. One of the keys is how we handle their running game. Alfred Morris is really good, aided by Shanahan's offensive schemes. Through the years, Shanahan has plugged various running backs into his offenses and they've done quite well. It's our #1 scoring defense versus their #1 running offense. If we stuff their running game and pressure RGIII just enough, it's ours to win.

"Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency."

--Barack Obama, January 2009

I'll be watching how the Seahawks handle Morris

(#298710)

I watched him rush for 200 yds. against Dallas last week, so he definitely can be explosive.

Speaking of predictions

(#298484)
HankP's picture

the Football pool is ridiculously close this year. Here are the top 5 in our football pool going in to the last game of the regular season:

 

 

It's a cliche to say that anyone can win, but with 27 picks to go it's actually true this year.

 

I blame it all on the Internet