A lot on Iraq and a little on the economy
In my previous post, I made reference to Bing West in an update. I first read his writings a couple of years ago and wrote about his take on Haditha "massacre" here, which to me encapsulated how badly we were screwing up in Iraq and it affirmed to me the strategy we needed to turn things around. Abu Muqawama summarized an excerpt about air power from West's book, The Village:
Hit by one of the artillery rounds, a thatched hut was blazing. Of the family of five, three had survived, although wounded. The mother and her daughter had been killed. Beebe called in a helicopter to evacuate the father and his two boys. Lam [a senior police official] told the villagers that he had been standing next to the Americans when they had called for artillery and that he would have done the same. The error had not been made at the fort. But two women were dead because of firepower gone awry, and the black ashes of the house could be seen by the patrols coming and going from the fort, a constant reminder which for seventeen months affected, if it did not actually determine, the American style of fighting in the village of Binh Nghia. The Marines saw too much of the villagers, and lived too closely with them, not to be affected by their personal grief. Besides, the Americans had to patrol with the PFs [Popular Forces, i.e., local militia], whose own families were scattered throughout the hamlets and who were naturally concerned about the use of any weapon which might injure their relatives. The rifle--not the cannon or the jet--was to be the primary weapon of the Americans in Binh Nghia.
This was back in Vietnam, where West was deployed in a Combined Action Platoon (CAP), employing counterinsurgency tactics in a small hamlet. Unfortunately, General Westmoreland fought a Big Unit War and spent too many resources on search-and-destroy missions, despite the notable success of the CAP program and despite recommendations such as the March 1966 PROVN study. Anyway, Colonel West has a piece in the Wall Street Journal, and I think it's worth some healthy blockquoting:
The threat in Iraq has changed from a full-scale insurgency into an antiterror campaign. Al Qaeda in Iraq is entrenched in northern Mosul, where it may take 18 months to completely defeat them. By employing what he calls his "Anaconda Strategy," Gen. David Petraeus is squeezing the life out of al Qaeda in Iraq. The mafia-style militia of Sadr has been splintered.The competition among Iraqi politicians has shifted from violence to politics, albeit yielding a track record as poor as that of our own Congress. After failing for two years to deliver basic services, both Shiite and Sunni politicians are stalling on legislation to hold provincial elections because many of them will be defeated. While irritating, these political games have not blocked U.S. gains.
Americans should praise rather than slight our military's achievements. Civil war has been averted. The Iraqi army has thrown the militia out of the port of Um Qasar, thus ensuring stable oil exports. Al Qaeda fought to make Iraq its base in the Arab Middle East. Instead, it is being hunted down.
Iran has emerged as the major threat to stability in Iraq. While its goal was to control a weak Iraq after the American army was driven out, Tehran overplayed its hand. Iran supplied the rockets to attack Iraqi politicians in Baghdad in April and supported Sadr's militia. But hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Shiites died fighting Iranians in the '80s, and those memories are still fresh. In southern Maysan Province, American and Iraqi units are waiting to hunt down terrorists returning from Iranian training camps. Iraq, backed by some American forces in remote desert bases, is poised to emerge as a regional counterweight to Iran.
Yet the progress in Iraq is most threatened by a political promise in the U.S. to remove all American combat brigades, against the advice of our military commanders. Iraqi volunteers working for a nonsectarian political party in Baghdad asked me, "Is America giving up its goals?" It's an unsettling question.
With victory in sight, why would we quit? The steady -- but not total -- withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq is freeing up forces to fight in Afghanistan. But Afghanistan is not the central front in the war on terror. Al Qaeda is hiding in Pakistan, a nation we are not going to invade.
The Iraqis aren't yet confident enough to stand entirely on their own; al Qaeda's savagery still imposes too much fear, while Iran is training terrorists next door. In counterinsurgency, the people must know they are protected. Gen. Petraeus has proven that intimidation can be defeated by placing American soldiers among the population. Wars are won by confidence, but also by procedures that take time to mature; and the Iraqi offensive against Sadr's militia in Basra last April revealed an atrocious Iraqi command and control system.
We are withdrawing as conditions permit. For instance, in the infamous Triangle of Death south of Baghdad, Col. Dominic Caraccilo has spread his rifle companies across 22 police precincts. Over the next year, he plans to pull out two of every three companies, leaving the population protected by Iraqi forces, backed by a thin screen of American soldiers.
If implemented on a countrywide scale, this model would reduce the American presence from 15 to five brigades over the next few years. They can be comprised of artillerymen, motor transport and civil affairs as well as infantrymen. By calling these residual forces "Transition Teams," we can remove the political argument in the U.S. about the exact number of combat brigades, and allow our commanders flexibility in adjusting force levels. This change of names rather than of missions is a way to save face and bring Americans closer together.
The problem is not American force levels in Iraq. It is divisiveness at home. While our military has adapted, our society has disconnected from its martial values. I was standing beside an Iraqi colonel one day in war-torn Fallujah when a tough Marine patrol walked by. "You Americans," he said, "are the strongest tribe."
But we cast aspersions on ourselves. The success of our military should not be begrudged to gain transitory political advantage.
Along similar lines, Bill Roggio has an entry on the chai count, i.e., the number of times that U.S. military men have Iraqi tea with Iraqis. The final paragraph:
Polasek’s year-long deployment ends in November, too soon to be available to oversee the postponed elections. In the meantime, he expects to sit down "hundreds" of more times before he returns to the squadron’s home base in Vilseck, Germany, near the Czech Republic."We were doing it wrong last time," said Polasek, regarding US tactics used earlier in the Iraq conflict. "People don’t like to admit it, but it’s true. Things were way too kinetic, busting down doors, humiliating people in front of their families. Now it’s all about understanding tribal affiliations and finding ways for people to keep their honor."
On the economy, one of the better commentators I've seen is blackhedd, current residing at Redstate. In his latest entry, he talked about the strengthening dollar, due mostly to the weakening euro and higher-than-expected inflation. With institutional investors looking for low-risk places to park money, the US Treasury is the preferred choice of late, and we may be seeing a stronger dollar for awhile.
--
"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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Let's say all of the above is true. Does that in any way stand as proof that Senator McCain, he of the wiki-based foreign policy, is anything other than addled when it comes to his supposed area of expertise?
Try this.
Seems to me, eight years of stupid is enough.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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)and not of the addled sort. BTW, liberals are defining plagiarism down re McCain and his statements on Georgia.
Djerejian is a pretty smart guy, but too bad he's so one-sided that he didn't take Obama to task as well. Quote:
Hilzoy's head must be spinning. Djerejian's praise of C.J. Shivers doesn't help him.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )Posted twice cuz I liked it.
Yep. Not so funny any more.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )for chasing AQ from Iraq, since we were the one's who invited them in.
The military should never have been engaged for transitory political advantage in the 1st place. That way we would never have had to deal with the prospect of having to massage military egos as a component of ending this most disastrous foreign policy entanglement since Vietnam.
I would suggest parades for each returning unit, lots of them. With cheering crowds waving little flags and free beer and network coverage, all paid for by the RNC.
Also heavy on the Dolchstosslegende.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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)One for beating the Ba'ath party and Iraqi army, three for beating the Mahdi Army in Spring of 2004, Fall of 2004, and Spring of 2008, and then one for beating Al Qaeda which moved into the power vacuum created by the destruction of the Iraqi state.
Seriously, though, one of the big problems with Surge cheerleading is that it tends to obscure the fact that even if all successes over the last year are carried forward and improved upon, it essentially amounts to us having cleaned up a mess we caused in the first place. In that context, though, the work of the last year on breaking the back of AQI with local help was something of a moral obligation of ours, simply because it was our fault that AQI had a place to work to begin with.
That, btw, is my (and I suspect Brooks and B Rational's) big problem with the Obama plan as originally formulated--to go in and f**k up a country as profoundly as the U.S. did Iraq and then say, "Screw it, we wash our hands of this mess" merely compounds one awful moral judgment with another.
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| parent )and substituting the Bush-McCain talking points.
If Maliki grabs the opportunity Obama's plan presents as he has done publicly, then I think the consensus is that Obama is onto a winner.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )"As originally formulated." It's a good thing that there's a chance that Iraqi security just might be ready to hold things together with U.S. logistical/advisory support.
When Obama's plan was originally formulated, though, it was not in response to an Iraqi government that felt capable enough to stand on its own in light of a (relative) decline in violence. It was a plan to admit defeat and withdraw unconditionally as quickly as possible.
Now then, Obama's change in position in light of facts on the ground is admirable. But his original position, drawn up so that he could win the Democratic nomination by running to the left of Hillary, was a different animal from what he and Maliki are currently advocating.
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| parent )stability in that country for decades. It was not an absolute requirement for US troops to take over clear-hold-build obligations in order to induce a return to basic stability.
It was not necessary for us to personally "fix" Iraq. Which is not to say that the military hasn't accomplished some good there, killed some badguys, helped rebuild some neighborhoods, and built some goodwill. But there are no guarantees that spending $340 million per day will pay dividends over letting the Iraqis do it themselves, and meanwhile it is quite certain US troops are needed elsewhere in the world. If Iraq erupts in civil war a year after we leave (whenever that is) the entire project will have been a monumental waste.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )Partially because I get paid in Canadian dollars and still visit the States fairly regularly. More importantly, though, one of the few things that's kept this recession (or whatever it is when the GDP grows but employment shrinks) from being as bad as 1991 or 1982 has been the weakness of the dollar driving exports. Much as leftists and Canadians like to crow about the dollar's weakening as a sign of gradual U.S. decline and us getting our comeuppance, it's been more of a good than not for America. So count my enthusiasm for a strengthening dollar as tepid.
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)It is a good thing we followed the advice of Westmoreland in Viet Nam. Otherwise we may have lost that war.
Snark aside, it is odd that you begin your diary by telling us how "our military commanders" got things very wrong in Viet Nam and then castigate us for not listening to the advice of our military commanders in Iraq. It seems to me our military commanders in Iraq don't have a very good track record of being right. Why should we give them the benefit of the doubt now?
Also, Withdrawing form Iraq is a strategic decision. As a result, it isn't solely or completely or even mostly a military decision. If Patreaus & Co. don't like the decision our elected officials make then they can resign their commissions.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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)...were put on Rumsfeld's dead-end career path list, for example, and Rumsfeld had a stranglehold on the pre-2007 strategy in general. Rumsfeld and Westmoreland have a lot in common because Westmoreland received all kinds of input (such as the PROVN study) and rejected most of it. I'll grant you that guys like Franks and Sanchez made some big mistakes and under-performed in their jobs, but I think West is referring to the personnel that he dialogued with over the course of his 15 visits.
I agree that withdrawing from Iraq is a strategic decision, but the present strategy is also a strategic decision, so I'm not exactly sure what your point is.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )My point is, our elected officials decide what the best strategy is, not the military. As you noted, Rumsfeld routinely ignored the best advice of his military commanders. Why is it now such a horrible thing to do? If Johnson/Nixon ignored Westmoreland maybe things would have been different in Viet Nam. Who knows?
Also, if it so easy to get Generals to heel by threatening their careers how do we know that Bush/Gates didn't threaten Patreaus with a "dead-end career path"? Were Myers, Franks & Sanchez lesser men than Patreaus?
I just don't see any absolutes in this situation.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent )Rumsfeld routinely ignored the best advice of his military commanders. Why is it now such a horrible thing to do?
So Rumsfeld routinely ignoring the best advice of his military commanders was not horrible?
As for what elected officials do, I don't see where we're disagreeing. The elected C-in-C makes the ultimate decision on strategy. How much Obama will listen to the commanders on the ground, especially in light of the current working strategy, is a serious and legitimate question. Given the 16-month box he put himself in, I question how much he really will listen.
As for Gates, if there is evidence that he is threatening careers, I'd like to see it. Rumsfeld's track record was pretty clear.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )He was nominated and confirmed to be the Secretary of Defense specifically to make those decisions. The fact that many of his decisions were wrong doesn't prove anything about the wisdom of his military commanders. Franks & Meyers were wrong too.
What secrets are they going to tell him that he doesn't already know?
The 16 month "box" is just a starting point. Obama has been crystal clear about this.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent )