Russian treachery and bullying. The good old days are back



Russians play chess, and the Putin government orchestrated a chess match when it came to Georgia, and they're levering their actions in Georgia by bullying America into making a choice. The Russian government also has a choice, if they can get over their bellicosity, paranoia and imperialist tendencies. Ralph Peters has interesting take on Russia's readiness to invade Georgia:

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.

As I pointed out Saturday, even to get one armored brigade over the Caucasus Mountains required extensive preparations. Since then, Russia has sent in the equivalent of almost two divisions - not only in South Ossetia, the scene of the original fighting, but also in separatist Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast.

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.

Every one of these things required careful preparations. In the words of one US officer, "Just to line up the airlift sorties would've taken weeks."

Working through their mercenaries in South Ossetia, Russia staged brutal provocations against Georgia from late July onward. Last Thursday, Georgia's president finally had to act to defend his own people.

But when the mouse stirred, the cat pounced.

The Russians know that we know this was a setup. But Moscow's Big Lie propagandists still blame Georgia - even as Russian aircraft bomb Georgian homes and Russian troops seize the vital city of Gori in the country's heart. And Russian troops also grabbed the Georgian city of Zugdidi to the west - invading from Abkhazia on a second axis.

Make no mistake: Moscow intends to dismember Georgia.

This is the most cynical military operation by a "European" power since Moscow invaded Afghanistan in 1979. (Sad to say, President Bush seems as bewildered now as President Jimmy Carter did then.)

The Economist called it a "scripted war":

Russia was prepared for the war not only militarily, but also ideologically. Its campaign was crude but effective. While its forces were dropping bombs on Georgia, the Kremlin bombarded its own population with an astonishing, even by Soviet standards, propaganda campaign. One Russian deputy reflected the mood: "Today, it is quite obvious who the parties in the conflict are. They are the US, UK, Israel who participated in training the Georgian army, Ukraine who supplied it with weapons. We are facing a situation where there is a NATO aggression against us."

In blue jeans and a sports jacket, Mr Putin, cast as the hero of the war, flew to the Russian side of the Caucasus mountain range to hear, first-hand, hair-raising stories from refugees that ranged from burning young girls alive to stabbing babies and running tanks over old women and children. These stories were whipped up into anti-Georgian and anti-Western hysteria. Russian politicians compared Mr Saakashvili to Saddam Hussein and Hitler and demanded that he face an international tribunal. What Russia was doing, it seemed, was no different from what the West had done in its "humanitarian" interventions.

There was one difference, however. Russia was dealing with a crisis that it had deliberately created. Its biggest justification for military intervention was that it was formally protecting its own citizens. Soon after Mr Putin’s arrival in the Kremlin in 2000, Russia started to hand out passports to Abkhaz and South Ossetians, while also claiming the role of a neutral peacekeeper in the region. When the fighting broke out between Georgia and South Ossetia, Russia, which had killed tens of thousands of its own citizens in Chechnya, argued that it had to defend its nationals.

More from The Economist here. At Small Wars Journal, Bob Killebrew looks at Russia's coordinated operation:

From a military perspective, the first impression is that the Russians laid an effective "strategic ambush" for Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvilli, inciting anti-government attacks in South Ossetia by local militias and then responding to the Georgian offensive with a well-planned and rehearsed offensive of their own. Even when viewed through the imperfect lens of news media scrambling to catch up to events, military experts understand that the joint and combined-arms attacks Russia staged in the opening hours of the war were anything but spontaneous. For historians, a retrospective on Nazi Germany's offensive to "protect" the Sudaten Czechs shows a striking similarity of purpose and method.

The Georgian armed forces were obviously not prepared for the Russian counteroffensive. Having recently purged older, Soviet-trained officers from its top commands, the Georgian military lacks doctrine, cohesion and experience; U.S. military assistance has been focused on preparing Georgian soldiers for duty alongside U.S. forces in Iraq, not in larger-scale, combined-arms warfare, and it shows. At this writing, the Georgian armed forces have virtually disappeared, their patrol boats sunk at their docks and their infantry collecting somewhere near the capitol city; Russian forces have broken contact and breakaway militias are rampaging in areas in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

To observers familiar with the sight of Russian troops riding to battle on the back decks of BMPs, the Russian campaign looked like previous warfare in Afghanistan and Czchneya. But in this case, the familiar Soviet-style, firepower-intensive armed campaign was preceded by a sophisticated cyberattack against Georgian information systems and, more ominously, a prelaid global information campaign that both advanced the Russian argument for its right to intervene and fed both the news media and wavering Western politicians with trumped-up details of Georgian atrocities. Look for the information campaign to intensify as Russian troops settle into positions in Georgia, where their location will become negotiable in the next phase, which will clearly be to drive the pro-Western Saakashvilli government from power. The Russians have "got" modern war, however outdated their "kinetic" operations may appear. In their operational concept, the information war preceded, and is superior to, actual combat operations on the land and sea. Western military authorities, whose ability to influence information operations of this type are nonexistent, can only look on in frustration.

Emphasis mine. Thom Shanker at the New York Times offers similar observations:

So along with the old-school onslaught of infantry, armor and artillery, Russia mounted joint air and naval operations, appeared to launch simultaneous cyberattacks on Georgian government Web sites and had its best English speakers at the ready to make Moscow’s case in television appearances.

If the rapidly unfolding events caught much of the world off guard, that kind of coordination of the old and the new did not look accidental to military professionals.

"They seem to have harnessed all their instruments of national power — military, diplomatic, information — in a very disciplined way," said one Pentagon official, who like others interviewed for this article disclosed details of the operation under ground rules that called for anonymity. "It appears this was well thought out and planned in advance, and suggests a level of coordination in the Russian government between the military and the other civilian agencies and departments that we are striving for today."

In fact, Pentagon and military officials say Russia held a major ground exercise in July just north of Georgia’s border, called Caucasus 2008, that played out a chain of events like the one carried out over recent days.

"This exercise was exactly what they executed in Georgia just a few weeks later," said Dale Herspring, an expert on Russian military affairs at Kansas State University. "This exercise was a complete dress rehearsal."

The Washington Post goes further in debunking Russia's claims that Georgian were engaged in genocide in South Ossetia:

This charge was initially leveled by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and has been taken up by others, including President Dmitry Medvedev, who on Thursday came up with the interesting formulation that South Ossetians "had lived through a genocide." Mr. Medvedev has referred to "thousands" killed, and Russian officials frequently have cited 2,000 South Ossetians killed (out of a population of 70,000). They have said Georgia razed the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. These purported depredations are given as the main motivation for Russian military intervention.

A researcher for Human Rights Watch who visited Tskhinvali reported as follows: "A doctor at Tskhinvali Regional Hospital who was on duty from the afternoon of August 7 told Human Rights Watch that between August 6 to 12 the hospital treated 273 wounded, both military and civilians. . . . The doctor also said that 44 bodies had been brought to the hospital since the fighting began, of both military and civilians. The figure reflects only those killed in the city of Tskhinvali. But the doctor was adamant that the majority of people killed in the city had been brought to the hospital before being buried, because the city morgue was not functioning due to the lack of electricity in the city."

Even today, on the pages of the Wall Street Journal, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov is trotting out the lie that Russian "peacekeepers" were watching acts of genocide. More on the Russian "peacekeepers" and whom they enabled:

This formulation has alternated with repeated Russian statements, repeatedly disproved, that Russian forces were not in Georgia at all, or were leaving, or were about to leave. In fact, journalists, human rights observers and others have documented that Russian troops have ranged far into Georgia, including the city of Gori and the port of Poti. They have razed, mined and looted Georgian army bases and destroyed civilian houses and apartment buildings.

Militia forces under Russian control include South Ossetians and others brought in from Russia itself -- what Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza described as "the North Caucasus irregular forces that the Russian military inexplicably encouraged to enter South Ossetia to murder, rape and steal." They have attacked civilians in Gori and engaged in ethnic cleansing of Georgian-populated villages in South Ossetia. Remarkably, the Russian-allied "president" of South Ossetia acknowledged the ethnic cleansing yesterday in an interview with the Russian newspaper Kommersant, although he did not acknowledge the killings of Georgian civilians that others have documented. Eduard Kokoity said that his forces "offered them a corridor and gave the peaceful population the chance to leave" and that "we do not intend to allow" their return.

Who knew that the Russian model for peacekeeping included ethnic cleansing. So far, Russia's withdrawal from sovereign Georgian territory has been negligible. All it would take is for some perceived slight and the Russians could use it as a pretext for continuing their occupation and ethnic cleansing.

So does Putin deserve all the blame? No, but most of it, and he's been agitating against the Saakashvili government from the beginning, as Matthew Continetti has documented. Saakashvili proved to be too impetuous, goaded into an ill-advised decision, so he shares some blame for poor judgment. It looks like the U.S. did not adequately consider the Russia reaction to Kosovo's independence, as well as the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, so we share some blame for getting caught flat-footed. But Russia planned their invasion and how they would handle the aftermath, all well in advance. It has all the markings of an operation masterminded by a KGB agent.

So what to do? We can't do much. Bailing out of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi is bone stupid because it punishes athletes who have nothing to do with international politics. Bringing Ukraine and Georgia into NATO at this time would not be smart, but I wouldn't take the issue off the table. Maybe later. Should we move to take Russia out of the G8? Yes. The intent of the G8 is to have a working group of the largest industrialized democracies come together to advance common interests. Russia is not a free country, its industrialization is anemic, and its interests appear to be diverging from the other seven nations. The pictures don't lie.

As Engram noted:

A rating of 1 indicates free, whereas a rating of 7 indicates not free. Again, does one country again stand out as being not like the others?

Why, yes, one country clearly does not belong in this group, and that country is, quite obviously, Russia. I think it is past time that we demote that country by excluding it from future meetings of the G7. We obviously need to talk to the Russians about many issues, but we don't need to artificially and inappropriately elevate their status by pretending that they belong in a meeting of economically advanced democracies.

India and Brazil have much lower per capita GDP than the G7, but they have free or partially free governments and their economies are moving in a favorable direction.

What else? We have the levers of sanctions, diplomacy and media to encourage Russia to move away from their belligerent behavior. The Russians engaged in some serious information operations, and we can definitely push back on that, but our other options are pretty limited.
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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

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An analogy for Georgia and the US (#111487)
by Bill White

We led Georgia on and dangled NATO membership and solidarity with the United States but when the cheddar hit the fan we did bupkis for our "new" ally. Caught the midnight bus out of town.

It's like talking a girl into sleeping with you and when she calls to say "I got pregnant" respond, "You idiot, I told you to take precautions!"

Duck of Minerva explains well why our global soft power shall continue to plummet because of this:

We cannot make up our mind about our strategies or our values:

What we are seeing here, I think, is a clash between universal claims and civilizational claims. And what's most striking to me is that the United States seems incapable of making up its collective mind about which logic to follow.

* * *

So when the current Bush administration talks about "democracy" it does so in a neoconservative register -- becoming a democracy means choosing light over darkness, salvation over sin. All of the praise heaped on the Rose Revolution by the Administration has that tone: congratulations for choosing the right path, now you're on the side of the angels. But because this is a neoconservative perspective, becoming a democracy doesn't carry any obligations for the US, but simply takes a country off of the list of places to be redeemed by force if necessary. Similarly, the Georgian contribution to US military operations carries no obligations for the US, because coalitions of the willing are by definition short-term hook-ups of mutual convenience, not marriages.

Shift the camera a bit, to the Georgian and Russian view. "Democracy" in that context doesn't play as a universal value, but as a civilizational one, and in particular as one associated (for generations, going back to the old Slavophile/Westernizer debates) with 'the West'. Hence becoming a democracy means moving closer not to some universal ideal, but to a concrete cultural community -- and that does carry obligations for other community-members. A civilizational claim is in that sense more like a marriage, or maybe a courtship: we're joining the club, we're on the team, we're joined to you in fundamental ways. Note that this is not just how Georgians see things, but it's also how the Russians see these things, including NATO expansion, which of course Georgia has long been pressing for.

Georgia believed they could count on us.

Us? We were like a guy who lies to girls, telling them he really is a doctor and no he won't leave a bogus telephone number in the morning.

Which is exactly what Randy Schuenemann did.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Heh! What Georgia needs is a king! (#111367)
by Bill White

Link

Mikheil Saakashvili is badly discredited. The nation may, for the moment, be rallying around him as a symbol of national identity, but that effect will not last long. His was the only political party in Georgia unambiguously opposed to a restoration, but it has little credibility now. In a time of defeat and suffering people are turning to the church, which is royalist.

Georgia has no military options against Russia, its economy has been devastated, it lacks diplomatic leverage. Yet there is one politico-cultural gesture it could make to renew itself, to reassert its national identity, to unite around a non-partisan symbol, and that is to restore its monarchy. The fact that it was originally abolished by Russia would give added meaning to this act of constitutional renewal.

The acknowledged head of the royal house, the de jure King George XIV, died earlier this year; but his 32-year-old son Prince Davit could be called to the throne of his ancestors as David XIII. This could be the holistic reinvention of itself this unfortunate nation needs.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

More on Russian plotting (#111361)
by Bill White

Here:

There are increasing reports from Georgia that Russian troops are systematically destroying oil transportation links. If confirmed, the tales of destruction may provide the best evidence that they do indeed intend to withdraw. From the beginning, oil and gas transmission has been at the centre of this conflict.

and this:

Russia has consistently sought policy changes by Georgia and possible "regime change" to realign Georgian policy with their aims. Against such a backdrop, it is difficult to be diplomatic about Saakashvili's adventure in South Ossetia, at once politically inept and militarily disastrous.

And now that they are in, it is difficult to see the Russians allowing Georgia much latitude to continue exercising her independence.

To the south of the Caspian, more carefully calibrated American policies could have made a profound difference on the regional chessboard via engagement with Iran. Natural gas from Turkmenistan and Iran could have flowed to Europe through Turkey.

Azeri, Kazakh (and Turkmen) oil could have flowed to the Gulf, providing the global market with a large consignment of crude.

It is clear that the West cannot independently deal with their friends and allies in the Caucasus and trans-Caspian without establishing a reasonable line of communication with either Russia or Iran. And the latter is the other potential oil and gas route out of the western heart of Asia.

Yes we have friends and allies in the Caucasus and trans-Caspian however the petroleum needs to transit either Georgia or Iran. Therefore, talk of "punishing" Russia is essentially impotent talk, mere kabuki and posture.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

No finger pointing (#111290)
by Micky Love

Was there any role played by the US in the Georgian move into South Ossetia? Apparently there were US troops and advisors in Georgia. Supposedly they missed the whole thing, despite the heightened tensions of Russian troop buildup that you note.

No finger pointing at the intelligence apparatus charged with keeping an eye on just such events? Seeing as how the CIA missed the last move of Russian troops onto foreign soil some 30 years ago, I would have thought they would be extra careful not to miss the next.

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Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just

This has been well covered (#111374)
by Bird Dog

The U.S. was urging Saakashvili to refrain from taking any drastic actions.

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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

Bird Dog, you owe me a new monitor (#111403)
by Bill White

Coffee was just spewed on my current one.

Link:

Speaking about his visit to Tskhinvali, Senator McCain said that the trip was "not very productive because there was not a direct response to our questions about why OSCE has been blocked from doing its job; why there has been no progress on peace initiatives from Georgia, from the UN, from the OSCE, from other organizations."

"I think that the attitude there is best described by what you see by driving in [Tskhinvali]: a very large billboard with a picture of Vladimir Putin on it, which says ''Vladimir Putin Our President''. I do not believe that Vladimir Putin is now, or ever should be, the President of sovereign Georgian soil," Senator McCain said.

The delegation''s visit to Georgia came two days after influential U.S. Republican Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the foreign relations committee, traveled to Georgia. Senator Lugar said during his visit that Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia should be replaced by more neutral international forces. The position was reiterated by Senator McCain on August 28.

"We agree with Senator Lugar that peacekeeping forces are not fulfilling the meaning of peacekeeping and they need to be replaced or changed so that they reflect a true peacekeeping mission… It is time to evaluate whether the Russian peacekeepers are carrying out their mission in an objective fashion. I believe that a serious consideration should be given to a new force from either OSCE, or the UN, which can do a job that is more credible than the present Russian peacekeeping force," Senator McCain said.

Recent calls for "restraint" were merely CYA statements and are merely the tip of the iceberg concerning the complete and utter failure of US policy in Georgia.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Here's a question (#111525)
by Bird Dog

How is your comment and blockquote a reply to what I wrote?

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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

In a word, a colossal blunder (#111397)
by Micky Love

I missed the coverage elsewhere. Last time I heard that the US blocked a Russian proposal at the UN just before the Georgians attacked.

I am truly curious about your take on the role of the CIA and intelligence services in this affair. Do you find it satisfactory? Do you think they did better than their predecessors during the invasion of Afghanistan? Russia invades two nations 30 years apart and the intelligence agencies seem caught off guard both times. Doesn't this merit any mention?

I'm still not convinced that US wasn't egging the Georgians on in hopes that it would be a fait accompli, what with the Olympics and all, and the belief, stated here, that the Russians were cowardly. In a word, a colossal blunder.

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Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just

That was also well covered (#111522)
by Bird Dog

The U.S. didn't "block" the Russians' three-sentence draft. The U.S., Britain and other member nations could not reach an agreement. Without knowing the actual text, I can't have an opinion on it one way or the other, but I would be highly skeptical of their draft proposal, for one reason because it looks like it was part and parcel of their coordinated propaganda campaign.

As for the CIA, I can't know what their role is or was, and I don't know what intelligence they had. They're clandestine. What we do know is that Saakashvili can be impetuous at times, and State Dept officials knew him well enough to warn him not to do something rash.

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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

I made a mistake (#111697)
by Micky Love

I'd say it was part and parcel much more than a propaganda campaign, as you know very well, Russian troop marched into the area within hours after the rejection at the UN. It's inconceivable that the CIA and intelligence agencies didn't know that Russia was poised to attack. Was there a miscalculation that the Russians were cowards who wouldn't dare do anything during the opening ceremony of the Olympics? If you come across any such questions being asked in the press of those responsible, please share them.

I made a mistake earlier by saying that the US was egging the Georgians on. The country is large and fractious and does not necessarily speak with one voice. The State Department may well have been urging caution but others may have been urging action. I'm still curious about the role of the US advisors in Georgia. Again please pass along any probing of these possibilities in the press, if you come across them. This incident has the mark of the neocon about it, in contrast with the previous handling of Georgia by Bush which has been deft. I've said this before, and my comments came before the events of this month.

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Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just

Russia has been paranoid for hundreds of years (#111274)
by Bill White

The idea that WE can coerce them into behaving in a manner WE deem acceptable in every respect strikes me as being many many bridges too far beyond our power.

Georgia should have surprised no one.

Gosh Tom Clancy did a PlayStation game scenario about a Russian - Georgian war over Ossetia maybe ten years ago. Just like Tom Clancy wrote about terrorists smashing airliners into buildings long before 9/11 - something Condi Rice said "no one could have anticipated" - and thereby demonstrating her fundamental incompetence.

In a word, the Republicans - including John McCain - are breathtakingly NAIVE about Putin and Russia (and al Qaeda, etc . . .) and about how to predict and prevent such things from happening.

Yep, I say this diary is NAIVE.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Naive? (#111372)
by Bird Dog

It was McCain who looked into Putin's soul and saw three letters: KGB. Funny thing is, I don't know of any Democrat who had the foresight of predicting these events. Do you? And what exactly was Obama's take? When exactly did he express his wisdom on the matter?

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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

What is naive was the belief we could extend NATO (#111406)
by Bill White

into Georgia without getting those fingers chopped off.

Which is exactly what happened.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

McCain was right (#111400)
by heet

to be suspicious of Russia but I think his reflexive bellicosity was unhelpful and impotent. Would we have really immediately given Georgia and Ukraine full NATO membership? No frickin' way. The other members would have never gone for it rightly because it would have unnecessarily inflamed Russia. And for what? Would we move to militarily support Georgia?

Another thing to consider - as McCain sits on the Armed Services Committee perhaps he had more specific information regarding the Russian military maneuvers before the invasion.

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Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President. - Bruce Springsteen

I look fwd to any further comments you might have on (#111289)
by Timmy the Wonder Dog

predicting and preventing, outside of the Play Station scenario that is.

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"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob

Timmy, McCain shall give us impotent bluster (#111404)
by Bill White

and little more.

Hey, lets call the Russians names. Talk Tough! Yeah that'll work.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Yawn . . . (#111296)
by Bill White

/nt

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

I figured as much (#111369)
by Timmy the Wonder Dog

nt

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"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob

What the Georgia situation indicates dramaticaly (#111159)
by Spartacvs

is that the country needs a President not a pundit.

The big concern with a McCain presidency – a concern which I am surprised has not been vocalized more fully – is that the U.S. will lurch from crisis to crisis, confrontation to confrontation, whether it be with Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc. The danger is that McCain’s pundit-like rhetoric will entrap the U.S. in descending spiral of foreign policy brinksmanship. Just think about the very likely scenario of McCain giving Iran/Russia a rhetorical ultimatum and Iran/Russia ignoring it. Now we are stuck - either we lose face by not following through on our threats or we follow through and go to war. We can’t afford such a reckless approach after the last eight years. For the next eight we need a president not a pundit.

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GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Troubling (#111068)
by Model 62

"They seem to have harnessed all their instruments of national power — military, diplomatic, information — in a very disciplined way," said one Pentagon official, who like others interviewed for this article disclosed details of the operation under ground rules that called for anonymity. "It appears this was well thought out and planned in advance, and suggests a level of coordination in the Russian government between the military and the other civilian agencies and departments that we are striving for today."

This sort of centralized coordination seems antithetical to non-imperial, federal democratic-republics. What sort of nation does one Pentagon official expect us to become?

The Russians engaged in some serious information operations, and we can definitely push back on that, but our other options are pretty limited.

We'll need to rehabilitate our credibility before we can undertake serious information operations.

Choosing a new administration helmed by a former Senator who didn't vote for the Iraq War, who didn't hire many of the war's ablest proponents, who didn't sing "Bomb Iran," and who didn't embrace the outgoing helmsman and his policies will go a long way toward patching up that credibility.

Well, M62 (#111073)
by stillnotking

Not to burst your bubble, but indications are pretty strong that he's about to hire at least one of the war's ablest proponents. As his #2 man (or, just possibly, woman).

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The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

We Should Distinguish Between (#111076)
by Model 62

proponents who voted for the Use of Force Authorization (such as Biden or Clinton) who may become Obama's VP choice and proponents who worked the policy (such as Scheunemann, Kagan, Kristol, Woolsley) who are already on the payroll.

By all means (#111082)
by stillnotking

let us distinguish between those who voted for AUMF as a political calculation, and those who sincerely felt it was good policy.

(Remind me again which one is worse?)

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The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

Too Easy (#111091)
by Model 62

Both are bad, of course, but the true believers crafting bad policy are worse.

The politicians can be pressured* to make the right policy choices. Sometimes they even do so.

------------------
*And unless Obama intends to perpetuate Cheney's Fourth Branch of the Federal government, he or she will have less influence on policy** than he or she does now.

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**A bit more visibility, however.

I know your abhorrence of short diaries, BD (#111055)
by stillnotking

but allow me to suggest that yours could have said the same thing more pithily with just:

So what to do? We can't do much.

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The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

I think you're wrong (#111024)
by HankP

about the Russian troops, from what I've read they have at least a hundred thousand in and around Chechnya so I don't think there was extensive planning necessary to send ten to twenty thousand to Georgia.

I'm also wondering how red-faced with rage conservatives would get if I swapped "Russia" with "US", "Georgia" with "Iraq" and "Kremlin" with "White House". There are differences, but the gist is the same.

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I blame it all on the Internet

I'm just wondering where you going to put the U.N. (#111240)
by Timmy the Wonder Dog

in your swap and your reference to gist.

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"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob

The Russians (#111140)
by Kierkegaard

issued Russian passports and citizenship to thousands of Ossetians and Abkhazians before the invasion and have announced that these regions are to be permanently annexed to Russia. The Duma is meeting now to ratify this.

So I'll go along with your analogy just as soon as Kurdistan becomes the 51st, er 58th, state ;)

Film at 11 . . . What's your point? (#111276)
by Bill White

Russia is Russia and has been Russia for a long long time.

Russia's hands are dirty in Ossetia and yet our rumblings about NATO membership for Georgia was merely another example of writing checks we cannot possibly cash.

Its the "Walker Texas Ranger" view of foreign policy. All we need do is stand tall and give Putin a round house kick and he will become our little puppy dog. /snark

Putin IS very DANGEROUS and that is why McCain's approach to Russia is NAIVE, FOOLISH and potentially very harmful to US interests.

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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

It wasn't just troops (#111046)
by Bird Dog

Russians had thousands of air strikes at the ready, and the Russian fleet in the Black Sea was nearby, having already set sail from their base in Ukraine, and their public relations apparatus was in high gear. Even with battalions in and around Chechnya, the Russians descended into Georgia with remarkable speed, and their April military exercise--Caucasus 2008--dovetailed perfectly with recent events. And this isn't just me talking. The above links are based on analyses by military experts.

As for your pathetic attempt at moral equivalence in your second paragraph, my better judgment tells not to respond to such inanity, especially since I don't know who these "red-faced with conservatives" are.

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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

More nonsensical war commentary (#113160)
by dmbeaster

Yes, I understand the bellicose neo-con desire to start new wars, and to do so based on nonsense.

There is nothing remarkable about the Russian military response. First, this has been an area of tension for a while. You would expect the Russians to be prepared should the Georgians attack the Russian "peacekeepers" stationed in the breakaway provinces. It is stupid to then cite their ready response as an indication that they "planned" to start this war. The war was started by the Georgian attack on the Russian troops already in the breakaway provinces -- surprise, when you stat shooting and killing Russian troops, the Russians fight back with an aoverwhelming response.

We can debate the wisdom of that Georgian move, or whether it was allegedly "forced" by Russian "provocations," but this war started because Georgians started killing Russians troops already stationed in the breakaway provinces. To them feign "surprise" as the speed and lethality of the Russian response is utter crap.

The Russians have naval and air bases in the immediate vicinity. There was nothing remarkable about the speed of that portion of the response. And because this is an area of high tension, you would expect them to have a ready response plan.

This is a debate about the proper boundaries for former provinces of Russia (and the current crappy way the Russians are dealing with these problems), which boundaries had little importance when they were internal dividing lines within the USSR. Both breakaway provinces do not want to be part of Georgia as an independent country -- they would vote to leave Georgia even before any alleged ethnic cleansing by the Russians since the war started (and I am sure there has been some by Russians, the non-Georgian ethnic locals, or both). Georgia wants to hold onto the provinces anyway, and the Russians have been undermining their effort to do so using the "peacekeepers" to do so. So Georgia started a war to deal with that problem, and had its head handed to it. What a surprise.

Based on your warmongering policy preferences, you can advocate extreme hostility to Russia, but please avoid a repeat of the Iraq war build-up, and embelish the pro-war arguments with fictions about what is going on.

Ignore moral equivalence -- Our problem is Putin is competent (#111277)
by Bill White

at geo-political manuevering.

Bush? Eh, pretty darn incompetent and McCain appears to be more all talk with little effective bite.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Moral Equivalence? (#111060)
by dionysus

Russia will probably leave soon. We're still in Iraq 5 years later.

I mean if you're gonna express outrage at the invasion of a sovereign nation under flimsy pretenses, I mean, they're pretty strictly equivalent.

Also, regarding Russia already having a plan drawn up, so? They have a planning dept in their military, I bet we have a plan laying on a shelf somewhere to invade Georgia too.

How's the Georgian vote coming on whether the Russkies (#111250)
by tomsyl

should stay or leave? What's that - you say there is no vote? Shoot. Well then, the president of Georgia should just have a sit-down with Putin at Camp Lubyanka and tell Vlad where to stick it. That should resolve the issue so we can go back to the Olympics.

BTW, I loved your "Russia will probably leave soon" comedic twist. I personally am shocked they're still there. They promised . . .

--

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Oh my, I had no idea (#111238)
by Macallan

Georgia and Russia had already been in a war, and that war was only suspended by a ceasefire, and Georgia repeatedly violated the terms of the ceasefire? I had no idea. I take back everything nasty I was thinking about Russia. Obviously, I need to really study up on the Georgian invasion of… which country did they invade that started the war?

--

“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”

Legalities are irrelevant here (#111286)
by Bill White

Our invasion of Iraq was a geo-political blunder precisely as pro-Vietnam war Jim Webb said (before we invaded). The fact that we undermined the UN Security Council is mere ancillary damage (or benefit depending on one's point of view).

No bleeding heart from me -- Our continuing occupation of Iraq is a BLUNDER in Machiavellian or von Clausewitz-ian terms.

= = =

A blunder just as Britain's recent invasion of Egypt was a blunder.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Ah, I see. (#111225)
by vinteuil

What Bush & co. did in Iraq was *even worse* than what Putin & co. did in Georgia.

Well. I suppose it's an arguable position.

--

God help the while, a bad world I say.

What Bush & co. did in Iraq was *even worse* (#111281)
by Bill White

Yes, but not because of morals.

The Iraq War has divided and demoralized America. The Georgian War? I suspect the opposite shall occur.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

The Iraq war was not bad because it divided Americans (#111390)
by Gramsky

it was bad because it killed a lot of people, and
increased the suffering of millions more.

The war in South Ossetia and nearby areas is unlikely
to kill and destroy as much and the big losses appear
at the moment to be the breakaway areas of Georgia rather
then Georgia proper... so I'm not seeing the Georgians
as the big lossers here, at least not when compared to
their breakaway ethnic groups.

These are not "either / or" issues (#111407)
by Bill White

I believe that removing Saddam (in the abstract) was a noble cause.

But it should have been done only after another SPECIFIC United Nations Resolution and Iraq should have been made a UN Protectorate within six months of US troops taking Baghdad.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

How many people died in Georgia (#111236)
by HankP

as opposed to Iraq. That's kind of important if you're discussing who's worse.

BTW, I don't approve of either action.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

How Many Of Its Neighbors Had Georgia Invaded. . . (#111253)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .in the past twenty-five years?

--

Depends what you count as neigbours (#111391)
by Gramsky

if you count the ethnic breakaway regions then several
were invaded and several times...hows your knowledge of
Serbia...

None, as far as I know (#111266)
by HankP

but that only seems to make a difference when there's oil involved.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

*pop* (#111270)
by M Scott Eiland

A "no blood for oil" meme is floated, and another moderate decides to vote Republican for national security reasons. The old ways still work!

--

Well, we haven't had any (#111405)
by dionysus

humanitarian, moral crusading nation building adventures in any countries that, you know, aren't filled to the brim with oil.

Could just be a coincidence though.

Hey (#111284)
by HankP

you're the one who always talks about Saddam Hussein getting control of oil in Kuwait and being on the border of Saudi Arabia, so I guess you're mocking yourself.

I also notice that no one wants to address the comparison of deaths in Georgia compared to Iraq.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

If we are going to use that metric (#111247)
by Timmy the Wonder Dog

how many died in the Ukraine in the last 100 years, course Stalin was a Georgian.

--

"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob

In wars (#111392)
by Gramsky

quiet a lot of people died in the Ukraine.

Are you comparing Hitlers decision on Barbarossa
with the decision to invade Iraq or Georgia ?

"the gist is the same" (#111033)
by vinteuil

And you wonder why people vote Republican.

It's because stuff like this freaks them out.

--

God help the while, a bad world I say.

And you wonder why people vote Republican. (#111283)
by Bill White

I don't wonder at all.

Many Republican voters secretly hope Walker Texas Ranger will round house kick all those nasty foreigners so they can get back to "Deal or No Deal" without worry.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

The most amusing thing to me (#111053)
by stillnotking

is that the folks who are most adamant about the right (nay, the duty) of the United States to protect its interests by preemptively killing foreigners are also the first to "freak out" at any suggestion of moral equivalence to the Russians -- who are, by any objective metric, doing exactly the same thing.

In other words, I completely agree with you that no politician can say these things for fear of freaking out the electorate. It's just that that doesn't make them any less true.

--

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

I don't know if you've noticed (#111044)
by HankP

but Republicans deserve to get freaked out over the massive failures their policies have led to. Insisting that everything is fine when it very obviously isn't is delusion, pure and simple. Also, I don't think you've noticed the polls showing that there is massive disapproval of Republican policies as followed by the current administration.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

My country number one! (#111038)
by Spartacvs
Interesting reading BD, thanks! (#111018)
by nyoos junkey

Indeed, Kosovo set a foolish precedent. Either the nation state is the model we build world order on or it is not. With this latest move by Russia and the recent loss of French forces in Afganistan we might be starting to see the limit of Western power.

Right now Russia holds all the cards in Georgia. There's no reason for them to rush to withdraw. The PR damage, such as it is, is done and rushing out would give the impression that what they had done in the first place was wrong.

If they loose here at all it will be in eastern Europe - Poland, Ukrain etc. But will these countries be drawn to the west if the west can't project the impression that they can and will protect them? If NATO countries won't sanction Russia over Georgia, would they go to war to defend Ukrain? How about some ethnically mixed Ukrainian border province?

Re the planned buildup by Russia, surely Russia has always had a hundred plans sitting around ready to go? It would be the height of military incompetance not to be able to react quickly to a Georgian move into either of the disputed pockets. These are right on Russia's border, not half way around the world.

Yamadaevtsy gangsters are also afoot in Georgia. (#111016)
by BlaiseP

a.k.a. The "Vostok" brigade, these chumps are pro-Russian Chechens, (yes, check your map, it's right next door) who are operating even beyond Russia's control.

Early this month on the 8th, the Russians got the ass at Yamadaevtsy for his troops getting into a fight with some Russian troops and put out a warrant on him. But he's around, probably in Moscow.

You might like this, even the Chechens are taking the side of the Georgians. Lots of odd names in there out of history, but I figure you folks are up to the challenge.

Thanks. (#111027)
by nyoos junkey

That last link is interesting. Time will tell if the Chechens quoted are correct. I'm not sure Russia will try to reabsorb Georgia. They might be more content to keep the place as a constant source of conflict.

Why is Russia strong now? (#111012)
by Floater

Especially when compared to where they were in the 90's? Oil prices. In the long term the best thing we can do to deal with Russia is to develop the technology that will help to wean us (and our Allies) off of our oil dependence.

Disagree that it boils down to one thing (#111061)
by Sulla

but I am happy to invest in technologies that will wean us off of oil, and given that we already have the technology for coal and nuclear to power our electrical grids that's where we should start.

--

"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss

Yeah, they also have the military tech (#111069)
by dionysus

Without which they'd just be another crappy Saudi Arabia, bunch of money but no teeth. Now they arm everyone that we don't want armed and have tech that can compete with everybody except us.

All that being said, what's wrong with pursuing solar and wind simultaneously? Given that they're completely renewable, don't need fuel and don't F up the planet, why not pursue them while rolling out more nuclear infrastructure?

Nothing wrong with that at all (#111416)
by Sulla

solar and wind make great sense where there is a bunch of unused land to support them. And after we wean oil of the grid then the next step would be to focus on getting it out of home heating.

--

"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss

You Know how HankP Feels about Diplomacy (#111009)
by Model 62

posts nerding up the site.

Nonetheless, I agree wholeheartedly with your characterization of the Russian player's behavior recently.

Heh! (#111020)
by vinteuil

Good one.

--

God help the while, a bad world I say.

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