What Crocker said

2

Since we hear more about military ops than political ops in Iraq, I thought it'd be useful to outline Ambassador Crocker's testimony. The full pdf is here, and Michael Goldfarb has a synopsis, presented below:

● The first is at the national level in the form of legislation and the development of Iraq’s parliament. In September, we were disappointed that Iraq had not yet enacted some key pieces of legislation. In the last several months, however, Iraq’s parliament has formulated, debated vigorously, and in many cases passed legislation dealing with vital issues of reconciliation and nation building.

● A pension law extended benefits to individuals who had previously been denied them because of their service under the former regime.

● The Accountability and Justice Law (de-Ba'athification reform), passed after lengthy and often contentious debate, reflects a strengthened spirit of reconciliation, as does a far-reaching Amnesty Law.

● The Provincial Powers Law is a major step forward in defining the relationship between the federal and provincial governments. Passage of this legislation required debate about the fundamental nature of the state, similar in its complexity to our own lengthy and difficult debate over states' rights.

● The Provincial Powers Law also called for provincial elections by October 1, 2008, and an Electoral Law is now under discussion that will set the parameters for elections. All major parties have announced their support for these elections, which will be a major step forward in Iraq's political development and will set the stage for national elections in late 2009.

● In January, a vote by the Council of Representatives to change the design of the Iraqi flag means the flag now flies in all parts of the country for the first time in years.

● The passage of the 2008 budget, with record amounts for capital expenditures, insures that the federal and provincial governments will have the resources for public spending. All of this has been done since September. These laws are not perfect and much depends on their implementation, but they are important steps.

● Also important has been the development of Iraq’s Council of Representatives (CoR) as a national institution. Last summer, the CoR suffered from persistent and often paralyzing disputes over leadership and procedure. Now, it is successfully grappling with complex issues and producing viable tradeoffs and compromise packages. As debates in Iraq’s parliament became more about how to resolve tough problems in a practical way, Iraqi politics have become more fluid. While politics still have a sectarian bent and basis, cross-sectarian coalitions have formed around issues, and sectarian political groupings which often were barriers to progress have become more flexible.

● When viewed with a broader lens, the Iraqi decision to combat these groups in Basrah has major significance. First, a Shi’a majority government, led by Prime Minister Maliki, has demonstrated its commitment to taking on criminals and extremists regardless of sectarian identity. Second, Iraqi Security Forces led these operations, in Basrah, and in towns and cities throughout the south. British and U.S. elements played important roles, but these were supporting roles, as they should be.

● The operation in Basrah has also shaken up Iraqi politics. The Prime Minister returned to Baghdad from Basrah shortly before I left for Washington – and he is confident in his decision and determined to press the fight against illegal groups, but also determined to take a hard look at lessons learned. The efforts of the government against extremist militia elements have broad political support as a statement April 5 by virtually all of Iraq’s main political leaders – Sunni, Shi’a, and Kurd – made clear.

● A wildcard remains the Sadrist Trend – and whether the Iraqis can continue to drive a wedge between other elements of the Trend and Iranian-supported Special Groups. A dangerous development in the immediate wake of the Basrah operation was what appeared to be a reunification between Special Groups and the mainline Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM). We also saw a potential collapse of the JAM “freeze” in military operations. As the situation unfolded however, Muqtada as-Sadr issued a statement that disavowed anyone possessing “heavy weapons” – which would include the signature weapons of the Special Groups. This statement can further sharpen the distinction between members of the Sadrist Trend, who should not pose a threat to the Iraqi state, and members of Special Groups, who very much do.

● One conclusion I draw from these signs of progress is that the strategy that began with the Surge is working. This does not mean, however, that U.S. support should be open-ended or that the level and nature of our engagement should not diminish over time. It is in this context that we have begun negotiating a bilateral relationship between Iraq and the United States. In August, Iraq’s five principal leaders requested a long-term relationship with the United States, to include economic, political, diplomatic, and security cooperation. The heart of this relationship will be a legal framework for the presence of American troops similar to that which exists in nearly 80 countries around the world.

Iran continues to undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government to establish a stable, secure state through the authority and training of criminal militia elements engaged in violence against Iraqi security forces, coalition forces and Iraqi civilians. The extent of Iran’s malign influence was dramatically demonstrated when militia elements armed and trained by Iran clashed with Iraqi government forces in Basrah and Baghdad. When the President announced the Surge, he pledged to seek out and destroy Iranian-supported lethal networks inside Iraq. We know more about these networks and their Quds Force sponsors than ever before – and we will continue to aggressively uproot and destroy them. At the same time, we support constructive relations between Iran and Iraq and are participating in a tripartite process to discuss the security situation in Iraq. Iran has a choice to make.

● Iraq has the potential to develop into a stable, secure multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian democracy under the rule of law. Whether it realizes that potential is ultimately up to the Iraqi people. Our support, however, will continue to be critical. I said in September that I cannot guarantee success in Iraq. That is still the case, although I think we are now closer. I remain convinced that a major departure from our current engagement would bring failure, and we have to be clear with ourselves about what failure would mean.

Al-Qa’ida is in retreat in Iraq, but it is not yet defeated. Al-Qa’ida's leaders are looking for every opportunity they can to hang on. Osama bin Ladin has called Iraq "the perfect base," and it reminds us that a fundamental aim of Al-Qa’ida is to establish itself in the Arab world. It almost succeeded in Iraq; we cannot allow it a second chance.

And it is not only Al-Qa’ida that would benefit -- Iran has said publicly it will fill any vacuum in Iraq, and extremist Shi’a militias would reassert themselves. We saw them try in Basrah and Baghdad two weeks ago. And in all of this, the Iraqi people would suffer on a scale far beyond what we have already seen. Spiraling conflict could draw in neighbors with devastating consequences for the region and the world.

● Mr. Chairman, as monumental as the events of the last five years have been in Iraq, Iraqis, Americans and the world ultimately will judge us far more on the basis of what will happen than what has happened. In the end, how we leave and what we leave behind will be more important than how we came. Our current course is hard, but it is working. Progress is real although still fragile. We need to stay with it.


I bolded the items that caught my attention. Since last September, political progress has accelerated, especially on the national stage. The Petraeus slideshow is here, also informative. In Petraeus' testimony, one fact that piqued my interest was this:
Given the importance of the Sons of Iraq, we are working closely with the Iraqi Government to transition them into the Iraqi Security Forces or other forms of employment, and over 21,000 have already been accepted into the Police or Army or other government jobs. This process has been slow, but it is taking place, and we will continue to monitor it carefully.

A small sign reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis. As for Basra, the mainstream media drove by and declared it an al Maliki failure, but the fact remains that al Sadr pushed for a ceasefire, the Iraqi government agreed to none of al Sadr's conditions, and government-backed troops are continuing operations in the southern city (cites here and here). Al Maliki botched the timing, planning and execution of the Basra operation, but the operation is ongoing. Also, Mahdi militias took serious casualties and ran into morale and supply problems. Given that al Sadr is still likely hiding somewhere in Iran, it appears that al Sadr did not win. In addition, al Maliki has received strong support from the other factions within the Iraqi government.

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Shorter Crocker and Petraeus

(#89054)

We can only withdraw from Iraq when conditions are right.

We can't tell you what those conditions are.

If things go badly, we need to stay to improve them.

If things go well, we need to stay to make sure they don't backslide.

Going forward, we should have a pause. Then an evaluation period. Then an assessment period. Then a determination period. Then elections will be over (phew!)

Joseph Heller would have been proud.

"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs

I like the highlighted

(#89053)


bit on support for the attack on basra being supported
by Sunni, Shi’a, and Kurd, that would be those with
their own militias who see the elimination of the
competition as opposed to the rule of the state against
militias.

More Ponyland Arguments

(#89043)

the fact remains that al Sadr pushed for a ceasefire, the Iraqi government agreed to none of al Sadr's conditions, and government-backed troops are continuing operations in the southern city

To quote Publius, with regard to this ongoing make-believe about what is happening in Iraq:

it's been difficult to argue about the real Iraq when one side’s premise is that Iraq is actually Ponyland, a dreamworld where wish projections take material form and walk the earth.

The government negotiated for peace with Sadr that was mediated by the Iranian general who heads the Quds force. Sadr got his wishes (the big one was the government releasing many of his followers), and gave up nothing. The reports of the fighting was that the Iraqi Army/police performed horribly, had to be bailed out when they were not openly defecting rather than fight Sadr.

Plus Maliki and crew are closer to Iran than Sadr, and closer to Iran than the US. They are not our friends.

This post is pure propaganda, but it is more apt to describe it as simply Ponyland.

Iran has fingers in lots of Shiite pies,

(#89044)

including the Quds helping Shiite militias in Basra. Meantime, al Sadr is still hiding away in Iran, watching his political influence ebb. With the political backing that al Maliki has, he is all the more emboldened to confront al Sadr. But keep on with the Ponyland schtick. It's a good way to divert.


"I think BDog would make this place interesting." --catchy

Why are we confident that al Maliki is less the Iranian

(#89069)

puppet that al Sadr? Some accounts suggest that al Sadr might prefer that Iraq chart a course less subject to Tehran's guidance and control.

It appears to me that Tehran has placed bets on every dog in the arena and shall do just fine regardless of which Shia faction ends up on top.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

To riposte:

(#89045)

Meantime, al Sadr is still hiding away in Iran, watching his political influence ebb.

You're citing THE CORNER as evidence? Are you mad? I mean, in the English sense of the word.

With the political backing that al Maliki has, he is all the more emboldened to confront al Sadr.

Wait, I thought the downtick in sectarian violence meant the surge was working. Is it now that the uptick in sectarian violence means the surge is working?

But keep on with the Ponyland schtick. It's a good way to divert.

Dolchstosslegende.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

I would think the most significant statement is this one

(#89050)

In August, Iraq’s five principal leaders requested a long-term relationship with the United States, to include economic, political, diplomatic, and security cooperation. The heart of this relationship will be a legal framework for the presence of American troops similar to that which exists in nearly 80 countries around the world.

In other words, the setting for a permanent US presence as a part of formal Pax Americana in Iraq is now constitutionalised via a democratic process, which was, of course, the primary reason for the invasion. The war aims can now be said to have been achieved.

It was pretty obvious that this would in fact be the state of affairs after the US took the decision to construct the world's largest embassy, by far, in central Baghdad. Its interesting to see the process of gradual legitimation of the occupation. All those who think that there will be any significant withdrawal, whatever the Administration, will hopefully now see the illogicality of their viewpoint. Now that Iraq has in fact been divided de facto into two opposed elements but with a parliamentary superstructure, it can never again threaten ME peace or become an anti-Israeli force. There is also the small matter of payback of the real US investment in Iraq (as opposed to US investment in the US for the war) - once that issue is settled, then the last of the war issues will have been sorted.

I note that the Democratic party is also stressing repeatedly that money should be extracted from the Iraqis.

Nelson, a member of the Senate committee that oversees spending legislation, says it's not fair for the United States to pay for reconstruction when Iraq's oil revenue could be $60 billion or more this year because of record prices. Nelson said he planned to offer an amendment to the Iraq spending bill that would require Iraq to pay back future reconstruction aid as well as money approved by Congress but not yet spent.

"It doesn't make any sense when they're making surpluses that we would continue to invest our money in Iraq for their infrastructure," Nelson said Monday in a telephone interview from Omaha. "That should be their investment. They should pay for that."

This week's testimony from Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker sets the stage for congressional debate later this month on President Bush's requests for nearly $200 billion in supplemental funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan this year. About $1.7 billion in those requests would fund reconstruction in Iraq, primarily for small-scale projects directed by military commanders or joint civilian-military "provincial reconstruction teams."

Bush says Iraq's government is taking a greater role in reconstruction spending. In a speech on the war last month in Dayton, Ohio, Bush said Iraq budget plans call for outspending the United States on reconstruction 11 to 1, "and soon we expect the Iraqis will cover 100% of those expenses."

"permanent US presence" and "a formal Pax Americana"

(#89071)

are not co-extensive terms.

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

To the extent our forces are heavily invested in Iraq our ability to intervene in force elsewhere are reduced AND to the extent we have a substantial ground presence within Iraq (which is riddled with Shia militias in contact with Tehran) we are more easily deterred from launching air strikes on Iranian facilities.

Our forces in Iraq (military and civilian) constitute assets AND targets and because Iran surely could make far more mischief than they are with regard to those targets our continuing presence actually reduces our ability to threaten Iran.

= = =

bin Laden has written that his long term plan against the West is one of economic attrition. That also needs to be taken into account with respect to our future Iraqi policy.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

I don't really agree, looking at what has happened over the past

(#89081)

3 years. The hardened US defences in the Green Zone are pretty much impervious to attack, however many rockets Sadrists might throw at them.

The only real problems arise during patrols, but in a few years, the combination of the Badr brigades and peshmerga aka the Iraqi Armed Forces should provide the human shields and take the casualties necessary for US troops to survive their tours intact.

Who will get the contracts for Iraqi reconstruction? Assumptions

(#89055)

must be that Russian and Chinese firms will not,, although Chinese firms will probably continue to make something from downstream purchases. The boom in Kirkuk obviously continues to be boon for many companies, Exxon, for example.


From the beginning of this month, SOMO has started selling Kirkuk crude oil through term contracts signed with 11 European and U.S. firms, each lasting three months.

SOMO said that it would soon increase Kirkuk crude oil exports from current 300,000 barrels a day to around 400,000 barrels a day. It said it had invited reliable U.S. companies to lift the additional Kirkuk crude.

The other side of the equation is the Iraqi subcontractors who will benefit from this. There is a small possibility, of course, that in spite of a free market, that those contractors close to the current regime in Iraq might get favoured status.

Well Done, Sir!

(#89057)

There is a small possibility, of course, that in spite of a free market, that those contractors close to the current regime in Iraq might get favoured status.

Sparkling.

One only finds such high quality understatement in graduates of British-style schooling.

Our firms tried their best to get in, but with little joy.

(#89059)

Pity the poor Indian oil major ONGC which had a 100% contract for exploration in one oilfield signed with the previous government in 2001, which it lost out when India did not send troops in 2003. Indian firms that tried to bypass the Iraqi Government by dealing directly with the Kurdistan Regional Government have had their fingers burnt.

Reliance had fallen foul of the Iraqi government for signing a deal with the Kurdish authorities for the Rovi and Sarta blocks in northern Iraq, paying a signature bonus of $15.5-17.5 million. Nearly 80% of the blocks, measuring 450-500 sq km, are made up of oil-bearing structures and the company had expressed confidence of making a discovery soon. The deals with Reliance was part of seven contracts signed by the Kurdish government in defiance of Baghdad's exploration law.

In a theoretical sense, Iraqi entrepreneurs have a better chance

(#89061)

now, under an US security umbrella, than before, in setting up practical businesses, as in post war Japan or Germany.

Unfortunately there are 2 assumptions here that have not worked. The first is that the secure business environment has not been created. The second is that, unlike the US and western Europe and Japan, and like a lot of Asian countries, the State, and State-controlled agencies play a much more significant business role - both as employers and entrepreneurs. This is something that many in the USA did not seem to understand when I discussed the issues with them in the past 5 days.

The assumptions seemed to be that if you created a secure business environment and provided credit, entrepreneurship, profits, improved standard of living would flow naturally.

Whereas many Asian countries, and even the people and businessmen, would tend to follow the example of an institution like Petronas in Malaysia, for example, that deals with foreign companies in a way that benefits Malaysia. It is, think, a sign of a pretty fundamental disconnect. People in Iraq, Pakistan-type countries would prefer to see the USA encourage the development of a strong non-corrupt State and strong State-based institutions (in a democratic environment), rather than encourage private enterprise. Private enterprise in some of our part of the world has a pretty nasty reputation.

US Planners*

(#89065)

have had success working with businesses with tight government connections -- the South Korean chaebol and the Japanese keiretsu and the American defense contractor.

--------------
*But maybe not this crop of US planners.

To the benefit of all concerned, you have to agree. n/t

(#89067)

Except the taxpayer nt

(#89089)

I blame it all on the Internet

Come on HP. Are you suggesting taxpayers have done badly out of

(#89090)

cheap Japanese and then South Korean imports throughout the past 50 years?

Have you been following the US economic news?

(#89095)

the high debt, high leverage policy that has papered over fiscal and trade imbalances for the past 30 years is unwinding.

International trade, like any other market, needs to be regulated. The idea that a market is self regulating in all aspects (beyond supply and demand curves setting prices) has proven to be a fallacy, as predicted by Adam Smith himself.

I blame it all on the Internet

Sure I have. And I agree with what you say. But if you are

(#89102)

talking about success of a foreign policy, using metrics such as maintenance of peace, participation in the global economy, contribution to the development of new products, then I would say both Japan and South Korea have been successful in anyone's book. And in that sense the US can be said to have succeeded in its policy of maintaining troop levels there as security against Chinese excursions, for example.

Otherwise the Japanese would have had to prepare for their own defenses, which can turn very quickly into aggressive preemptive defense by attack on a putative enemy, as Japan-China's recent history shows.

Getting Back on Target

(#89105)

Otherwise the Japanese would have had to prepare for their own defenses, which can turn very quickly into aggressive preemptive defense by attack on a putative enemy, as Japan-China's recent history shows.

Not to mention Iraq's recent history.

There was another issue there,

(#89104)

which is that nobody wanted Japan to have any offensive capability for the two generations after WWII. Japan now is a very different place from Japan then -- which gets back to my notions regarding the importance of being perceived as somewhat restrained by morality. People let you do more if they think they can trust you.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

That is true. But that is not the point. You are looking to

(#89110)

be able to change US policy from aggressive decision-making in isolation to a cooperative process.

The problem with your approach is that this isn't going to happen. For this to happen, human beings would have to be different. Americans are not going to want to do things that diminish their aggressive position in the world - tis is something I picked on during my recent visit to a relatively liberal state academic institution. Americans, the ones I came in touch with anyway, do not think in co-operative terms, even when they are so-operating. It is very much outcome driven, what is in for me, follow the money approach.

Its why your services are so expensive, and in fact why we were brought in. But it is also why conspicuous consumption is a part of behavioural pattern here, in a completely natural and unselfconscious way. Which is why I feel the approach advocated by people who have not visited the US to suggest reducing consumption will not work. And incidentally, at bottom, the reason why the US invaded Iraq, with the public support for it, and why there is bipartisan support for the war.

We don't have to be particularly cooperative.

(#89124)

What we do have to be is relatively predictable; it needs to be possible to keep one's head down and prosper within the system.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Osama bin Ladin has called Iraq "the perfect base,"

(#89041)

Heckuva job George.

Obama gets his turn: was there any measure of success under which Petraeus/Crocker would recommend a withdrawal of US forces from Iraq?

"If we were able to have the status quo in Iraq right now without US troops, would that be a definition of success?"

"If we had the current status quo and yet our troops had been drawn to 30,000 would we consider that a success?"

Crocker? Senator, Iraq is really really difficult.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

Since when does a Bin Ladin cite

(#89076)

act as proof of anything?

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

Proves nothing

(#89151)

Make your own assessment, and let us know were your opinion might diverge from OBL's.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

OK

(#89286)

From what I understand Bin Laden's franchise in Iraq has been having a tough go of it lately, so I'm letting you know my opinion diverges from his.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta