What Democrats and Obama said about the surge strategy [updated at end]
Let's be clear about this. When Democrats (and a few Republicans) said they opposed the surge in troops, they also opposed the strategy. Why? Because to execute the strategy, more troops were needed. We couldn't go on moving troops around to handle hot spots. Baghdad desperately needed more security, and moving troops to Baghdad from Anbar or Diyala or other provinces would not solve the problem. In order to truly clear, hold and build, we needed more troops on the ground and we needed more of those troops outside forward operating bases. We needed more troops at combat outposts. We needed more U.S. troops embedded with--and partnering with--Iraqi troops. We needed more troops to better train Iraqi forces. We needed more troops to provide an improved environment for intelligence gathering. With a more secure environment, Ryan Crocker and others could do their jobs on the diplomatic front.
The strategy happened, and is continuing to happen. As I noted in an earlier post, the strategy is succeeding. Political progress is taking place, and the Sunnis rejoining the Iraqi government is just one more sign.
So what have Democrats and Barack Obama said about the strategy? Plenty.
Chris Dodd, December 24, 2006:
The proposal being considered by the administration to add between 15,000 and 30,000 soldiers in a "surge" of American troops will do nothing to address this issue. If anything, "is a tactic in search of a strategy. How does it lead to victory? It won't solve any problems; it won't force the hands of Iraq's leaders; at best, it will simply be one more reason for delay - a delay that will be paid with American blood."
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, in a January 5, 2007 open letter:
Surging forces is a strategy that you have already tried and that has already failed. Like many current and former military leaders, we believe that trying again would be a serious mistake.
Dick Durbin, January 5, 2007:
Durbin, the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said he "fully supports" a letter sent by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., urging the president to begin pulling out troops in four to six months. The proposed surge in troops "is a sad, ominous echo of something we've lived through in this country," Durbin, recalling the Vietnam war, said. He spoke to reporters after a meeting of Senate Democrats on issues confronting the new Congress. Durbin was reiterating concerns he expressed Thursday on the Senate floor, where he said "I am afraid in many instances we are only sending targets and not troops."
Barack Obama, January 5, 2007:
Meanwhile, Obama said he told the president directly that an "escalation of troop levels in Iraq was a mistake." Obama was among more than a dozen senators of both parties who were invited to the White House to discuss his plans for Iraq. Bush plans to continue to meet with lawmakers and is expected to announce his new Iraq strategy next week in an address to the nation. "It was an open-ended discussion," Obama told reporters after the meeting. "The president asked for our opinions. I think both Republican and Democratic senators expressed grave concern about the situation in Iraq. I personally indicated that an escalation of troop levels in Iraq was a mistake and that we need a political accommodation, rather than a military approach to the sectarian violence there," said Obama.
"There's not much I can do about it; not much anybody can do about it," Sen Joe Biden, D-Del, told NBC on Sunday. "He's commander in chief. If he surges another 20, 30 (thousand) or whatever number he's going to, into Baghdad, it'll be a tragic mistake, in my view, but, as a practical matter, there's no way to say, 'Mr. President, stop.'"
An escalation, whether it is called a surge or any other name, is still an escalation, and I believe it would be an immense new mistake.
Hillary Clinton, January 10, 2007:
Based on the president's speech tonight, I cannot support his proposed escalation of the war in Iraq.[...]
The President simply has not gotten the message sent loudly and clearly by the American people, that we desperately need a new course. The president has not offered a new direction, instead he will continue to take us down the wrong road, only faster.
The plan is neither new nor forward-looking. This is more of what's taken us backwards. There's no military solution in Iraq. There is only a political solution, and the president has no plan to achieve it.
Barack Obama, January 10, 2007, on Olbermann’s comedy hour:
I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence there. In fact, I think it will do the reverse.
Barack Obama, January 14, 2007, on Face the Nation:
We cannot impose a military solution on what has effectively become a civil war. And until we acknowledge that reality -- we can send 15,000 more troops, 20,000 more troops, 30,000 more troops, I don't know any expert on the region or any military officer that I've spoken to privately that believes that that is going to make a substantial difference on the situation on the ground.
Barack Obama, January 23, 2007:
And in reaction to the president's January 23 State of the Union address, Obama said,I don't think the president's strategy is going to work. We went through two weeks of hearings on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; experts from across the spectrum--military and civilian, conservative and liberal--expressed great skepticism about it. My suggestion to the president has been that the only way we're going to change the dynamic in Iraq and start seeing political commendation is actually if we create a system of phased redeployment. And, frankly, the president, I think, has not been willing to consider that option, not because it's not militarily sound but because he continues to cling to the belief that somehow military solutions are going to lead to victory in Iraq.
John Kerry, January 24, 2007:
I'm confident it will not work.
Hilzoy, January 27, 2007:
But I believe we have irretrievably lost in Iraq.
Also in January 2007, Obama introduced his own piece of legislation, the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007, which capped troop levels at numbers no higher than what was there on January 10, 2007, and required that "redeployment"; begin no later than May 1, 2007, with all combat brigades removed by March 31, 2008. This wholesale withdrawal could only be suspended if 13 benchmarks were met by the Iraqi government, and that suspension is only temporary. Obama's proposed legislation was a direct rejection of the Petraeus strategy.
The simple fact is that sending in over 20,000 additional troops isn’t the answer -- in fact, it’s a tragic mistake. It won't end the violence; it won't provide security; it won't turn back the clock and avoid the civil war that is in fact already underway; it won't deter terrorists who have a completely different agenda; it won't rein in the militias who are viewed as the protectors of the general population.It will simply postpone the political solution that is the only solution in Iraq, while further damaging our prestige and credibility in the region. And most importantly, it will also expose our troops to unnecessary death and injury.
House resolution, February 16, 2007:
Congress disapproves of the decision of President George W. Bush announced on January 10, 2007, to deploy more than 20,000 additional United States combat troops to Iraq.
The House version passed 246-182, and the Senate version failed to clear cloture. Obama and Dodd voted in favor of the resolution.
The Politico, February 13, 2007:
Top House Democrats, working in concert with anti-war groups, have decided against using congressional power to force a quick end to U.S. involvement in Iraq, and instead will pursue a slow-bleed strategy designed to gradually limit the administration's options. Led by Rep. John P. Murtha, D-Pa., and supported by several well-funded anti-war groups, the coalition's goal is to limit or sharply reduce the number of U.S. troops available for the Iraq conflict, rather than to openly cut off funding for the war itself.
Barack Obama, March 19, 2007, on Larry King:
GEORGE BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It can be tempting to look at the challenges in Iraq and conclude our best option is to pack up and go home. That may be satisfying in the short run, but I believe the consequences for American security would be devastating.(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Senator Obama, you disagree with that. He says it would be devastating to leave now. You say no. Why not?
OBAMA: Well, first of all, I don't know anybody who's been talking about packing up and going home. I think that everybody has recognized we've got a major national security interest in the region, particularly in Afghanistan, where we're starting to see the Taliban resurgent al Qaeda strengthening.
So, under my plan, and I think most other proposals that have been discussed, what we want to do is make sure that we've got some forces that are over the horizon to help stabilize the situation in Iraq. Also, forces placed in Afghanistan to make sure that we're finishing the job there.
But the president's basic premise, that somehow if we just keep on doing what we're doing now, we're going to see success where we've seen failure in the past, just is not borne out by the facts.
You know, we have consistently tried the same approach that the president is trying now...
KING: Well, how about more troops now, though?
OBAMA: ... even those who are supporting -- but here's the thing, Larry -- even those who support the escalation have acknowledged that 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 more troops placed temporarily in places like Baghdad are not going to make a long-term difference.
What the militias are essentially doing is they've just pulled back. They've said as long as there's these increased troop presence, we'll lie low, we'll wait it out.
As soon as the Americans start leaving and redeploying into other areas, we will come back in because we haven't changed the underlying dynamic of the situation, and that is essentially that the Shia and the Sunni don't trust each other, have been unwilling to engage in any serious concessions toward each other and the various players in the region, like Iran and Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, have not been effectively engaged and are instead funding these various conflicts inside Iraq in ways that are damaging to the Iraqi people.
So what we have to do is make sure that we're taking seriously the diplomatic efforts in the region. We need a diplomatic surge. We need a surge in negotiations among the various parties inside Iraq.
What we are not going to be successful in doing is thinking that by putting an additional 20,000 or 30,000 young American men and women, many of whom have already served in Iraq and now putting themselves at risk once again, that somewhere they're going to be able to control what has become, effectively, a sectarian civil war.
We don’t need a surge of troops in Iraq – we need a surge of diplomacy and politics. Every knowledgeable person who has examined the Iraq situation for the past several years—Baker and Hamilton, senior military officials, junior officers—has drawn the same conclusion--there is no military solution in Iraq. To insist upon a surge is wrong.
Harry Reid, April 12, 2007:
As Democratic leaders in Congress brace for a showdown with President Bush on Iraq war funding, they issued a blunt threat to GOP colleagues: Challenge the White House strategy or be wiped out in 2008. "We're going to pick up Senate seats as a result of this war," Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) told reporters yesterday. "Senator Schumer has shown me numbers that are compelling and astounding." Reid was referring to Charles E. Schumer of New York, the Senate Democrats' campaign chief. "You look at the polling numbers of Republican senators, and the war in Iraq is a lead weight attached to their ankles. They know that," Schumer said.
As long as we follow the President's path in Iraq, the war is lost.
Reid went on to demand a "change of course" barely two months after Bush changed course. As Media Matters noted, Reid also said this in a press conference: "This war is lost, and that the surge is not accomplishing anything, as indicated by the extreme violence in Iraq yesterday." What was that "extreme violence"? It was a series of four suicide bombings in Baghdad that killed at least 183. Harry Reid was so influenced by these events that he declared the war "lost", surrendering to al Qaeda & Co. without even apparently being aware of it. Reid appears to have done the political calculus and a lost war in Iraq means more Senate seats for Democrats.
Ted Kennedy, Congressional Record S.5367, May 1, 2007:
The surge was supposed to bring stability essential to political reconciliation and economic reconstruction. It hasn't and it won't.
As much as I wish we were able to secure Iraq ourselves, that the surge would work, or that our military presence in Iraq would bring about the compromises necessary, I think the evidence is clear it is not happening, and it will not happen.
Dick Durbin, May 16, 2007:
This morning, the White House announced that the president has finally found a general who will accept the responsibility for the execution of this war. Why did four generals before him refuse this assignment? Because those four generals know, the American people know, and this Senate knows that the administration's policy in Iraq has failed.
Say it with me: We. Need. To. Get. Out. The sooner the better. Our presence in Iraq is doing nothing for Iraq itself, which is doomed to sectarian civil war no matter what we do. It's actively hindering the destruction of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which will almost certainly proceed more quickly and more ruthlessly once we leave. It's made Iran into a more powerful regional player than it ever could have dreamed of. It's produced a relentlessly worsening foreign policy catastrophe by swelling the ranks of Middle Eastern Muslims who support anti-American jihadism in spirit, even if they don't directly support al-Qaeda itself. And it's turned into a bonanza of recruiting and fundraising among those who do directly support al-Qaeda.In almost every way you can think of, our continued presence in Iraq is bad for Iraq, bad for the Middle East, and bad for America's own national security. I can't even think of anything on the plus side of the ledger anymore, and every additional day we stay there only makes the ledger look worse.
We desperately need to construct a national security policy that actually addresses violent jihadism in a serious and effective way. We can't do that as long as we're in Iraq. That's why we need to leave.
Barack Obama, May 25, 2007, in a speech to the Coalition Of Black Trade Unionists Convention:
And what I know is that what our troops deserve is not just rhetoric, they deserve a new plan. Governor Romney and Senator McCain clearly believe that the course that we're on in Iraq is working, I do not.
Joe Biden, June 1, 2007:
The surge has not worked and will not work because its basic premise – to give time for a strong central government to take hold – is fatally flawed.
Jack Murtha, June 3, 2007:
"They [the White House] keep saying the news media is being negative," Murtha said. "They keep making excuses for the lack of progress. I've been hearing this month after month and I'm absolutely convinced right now the surge isn't working and I'm convinced that if they don't pay attention to what I'm saying and a lot of other members of Congress are saying they're going to have a disaster on their hands because the American public want the troops out of Iraq."
More Murtha comments from the same interview:
I'm absolutely convinced the first step to stability in Iraq is redeployment and what they're saying, when you look at the figure, the figures that you and I see, the figures that we use all the time, oil production below pre-war level, electricity below pre-war level, a couple of hours of electricity in Baghdad some days and 60 percent unemployment some parts of Iraq. I mean, there's no way you're going to have success.
Reid and Pelosi, in a joint letter, June 13, 2007:
As many had foreseen, the escalation has failed to produce the intended results
This proclamation was made three days before the launch of Operation Phantom Thunder, when we had just achieved full troop strength.
Harry Reid, July 9, 2007:
Democrats and military experts and the American people know the president's current strategy is not working and we cannot wait until September to act.
James Webb, July 9, 2007:
It applies as of date of an enactment, and just to emphasize from all the other questions that have been taking place here, I don’t care what the report says next week. I don’t care what the report says in September. This is an amendment that needs to pass regardless of what we’re doing in the future in Iraq.
Jack Murtha, July 12, 2007:
"Well it's delusional to say the least," Murtha told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "As I said earlier, and you heard me say it, it's a failed policy wrapped in illusion. Nothing's gotten better. Incidents have increased. We have had more Americans killed in the last four months than any other period during the war."
Dianne Feinstein, July 17, 2007:
Today, a majority of the Senate sees that the surge is not working, and a majority believes there has been no progress on political reconciliation. The question I hear repeated is: Do we change course now or do we wait until September? I have heard distinguished Members of this body say: Why not wait until September? I believe the answer is clear. When you know things are moving in the wrong direction, why wait to act?
Barack Obama, July 18, 2007, on the Today show:
My assessment is that the surge has not worked and we will not see a different report eight weeks from now.
Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Thursday the United States cannot use its military to solve humanitarian problems and that preventing a potential genocide in Iraq isn’t a good enough reason to keep U.S. forces there."Well, look, if that’s the criteria by which we are making decisions on the deployment of U.S. forces, then by that argument you would have 300,000 troops in the Congo right now — where millions have been slaughtered as a consequence of ethnic strife — which we haven’t done," Obama said in an interview with The Associated Press...
"Nobody is proposing we leave precipitously. There are still going to be U.S. forces in the region that could intercede, with an international force, on an emergency basis," Obama said between stops on the first of two days scheduled on the New Hampshire campaign trail. "There’s no doubt there are risks of increased bloodshed in Iraq without a continuing U.S. presence there."
Sixteen months is precipitous, so Obama is mistaken when he says that nobody is proposing that we leave precipitously. He is.
Mark Shields, August 24, 2007:
This is a fight and a debate, and it's going to be for the next three months between the two parties, over who lost Iraq. That's what the debate is. And the predicate being laid down by the president and his supporters is, "We were just on the cusp of victory. We were just there." And nobody I know in a rational condition believes the United States is going to have any kind of a military victory in Iraq.
Ed Markey, September 10, 2007:
President Bush's latest Potemkin village fabricated to mask his failed Iraq policy is a 'Petraeus village.' It is clear that the Petraeus village is just a facade to hide from view the continuing failure of the Bush Administration's strategy in Iraq.
Rahm Emanuel, September 7, 2007:
We don’t need a report that wins the Nobel Prize for creative statistics or the Pulitzer for fiction. Americans are demanding the facts, an end to this open-ended commitment, a surge on the political and diplomatic front. In short, the American people want a new direction in Iraq.
Dick Durbin, September 7, 2007:
By carefully manipulating the statistics, the Bush-Petraeus report will try to persuade us that the violence in Iraq is decreasing, and the surge is working.
Hillary Clinton, responding to General Petraeus’ testimony and all but calling him a liar, on September 12, 2007:
I think that the reports that you provide to us really require the willing suspension of disbelief.
Barack Obama, September 13, 2007:
Rose: Sen. Obama, give me your assessment of what's happened in the Congress with the testimony of Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker, and do you accept their judgment about what is going on on the ground in Iraq?Obama: Well, after hearing two days of testimony, let's be clear on exactly what they said. That after putting an additional 30,000 troops in, far longer and more troops than the president had initially said, we have gone from a horrendous situation of violence in Iraq to the same intolerable levels of violence that we had back in June of 2006. So, essentially, after all this we're back where we were 15 months ago. And what has not happened is any movement with respect to the sort of political accommodations among the various factions, the Shia, the Sunni, and Kurds that were the rationale for surge and that ultimately is going to be what stabilizes Iraq. So, I think it is fair to say that the president has simply tried to gain another six months to continue on the same course that he's been on for several years now. It is a course that will not succeed. It is a course that is exacting an enormous toll on the American people, enormous toll on our troops who have performed brilliantly and done everything that's been asked of them and is not making us more safe because it continues to put strains on our military and prevents us from tackling al-Qaida in places like Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Nancy Pelosi, November 8, 2007:
This is not working, it’s a war without end, there is no light at the end of the tunnel, we must reverse it.
Barack Obama, November 11, 2007, on Meet the Press:
MR. RUSSERT: You were not in the Senate in October of 2002. You did give a speech opposing the war. But Senator Clinton’s campaign will say since you’ve been a senator there’s been no difference in your record. And other critics will say that you’ve not been a leader against the war, and they point to this: In July of ‘04, Barack Obama, "I’m not privy to Senate intelligence reports. What would I have done? I don’t know," in terms of how you would have voted on the war. And then this: "There’s not much of a difference between my position on Iraq and George Bush’s position at this stage." That was July of ‘04. And this: "I think" there’s "some room for disagreement in that initial decision to vote for authorization of the war." It doesn’t seem that you are firmly wedded against the war, and that you left some wiggle room that, if you had been in the Senate, you may have voted for it.SEN. OBAMA: Now, Tim, that first quote was made with an interview with a guy named Tim Russert on MEET THE PRESS during the convention when we had a nominee for the presidency and a vice president, both of whom had voted for the war. And so it, it probably was the wrong time for me to be making a strong case against our party’s nominees’ decisions when it came to Iraq.
Look, I was opposed to this war in 2002, 2003, four, five, six and seven. What I was very clear about, even in 2002 in my original opposition, was once we were in, we were going to have to make some decisions to see how we could stabilize the situation and act responsibly. And that’s what I did through 2004, five and six, try to see can we create a workable government in Iraq? Can we make sure that we are minimizing the humanitarian costs in Iraq? Can we make sure that our troops are safe in Iraq? And that’s what I have done. Finally, in 2006, 2007, we started to see that, even after an election, George Bush continued to want to pursue a course that didn’t withdraw troops from Iraq but actually doubled down and initiated the surge. And at that stage, I said, very clearly, not only have we not seen improvements, but we’re actually worsening, potentially, a situation there. And since that time I’ve been absolutely clear in terms of the approach that I would take. I would end this war, and I would have our troops out within 16 months.
Harry Reid, November 15, 2007:
It's not getting better, it's getting worse.
Nancy Pelosi, February 10, 2008:
The gains have not produced the desired effect, which is the reconciliation of Iraq. This is a failure. This is a failure.
As Peter Wehner said:
Democrats, then, have compounded their initial bad judgment about the surge with reckless obstinacy. As ethno-sectarian violence in Iraq rapidly declined, as al Qaeda absorbed tremendous military blows, and as political accommodation and legislative achievements have emerged, Democrats, rather than welcoming the progress, grew agitated. They embraced with religious zeal the belief that the Iraq war was lost; they therefore viewed the success of the surge as a terribly inconvenient development, one they sought to deny to the point that they looked silly and out of touch. Worse, Democrats acted as if they had a vested interest in an American defeat.Rarely has a political party been so uniformly wrong, in such an obvious way, on such an important matter. And when Americans cast their vote on November 4, they should carefully consider how Barack Obama and the entire Democratic party fought ferociously and relentlessly to undermine a policy that has worked extraordinarily well and may yet prove to be among the most successful military plans in modern times.
Assuming the translation was accurate, here's what al Maliki said about how things have improved:
First, there is the political rapprochement we have managed to achieve in central Iraq. This has enabled us, above all, to pull the plug on al-Qaida. Second, there is the progress being made by our security forces. Third, there is the deep sense of abhorrence with which the population has reacted to the atrocities of al-Qaida and the militias. Finally, of course, there is the economic recovery.
Regarding al Maliki's 16-month comments, I'm not sure how that reconciles with the White House statement and follow-up statement from prime minister's office, except that al Maliki's time horizon may be shorter than longer. Dr. iRack, who's been following the SoFA negotiations pretty closely, had these pre-Spiegel observations:
So what explains the different interpretations? And if the Maliki government appears set on establishing some timetable, why did they sign on to a more ambiguous time horizon? Two possibilities suggest themselves:1. The Iraqi leadership deep down wants a fixed timetable for a complete withdrawal, despite contradictory statements suggesting otherwise, but they were forced to agree to more ambiguous language by the Bush administration.
2. The Iraqi leadership actually wants the U.S. to transition to a support role and reduce its military footprint sooner rather than later, but it is not in favor of a fixed timetable or a complete withdrawal in the near to intermediate term. Nevertheless, to appease rising nationalist sentiment and sovereignty concerns in an Iraqi election year, the Maliki government wants to appear to be demanding some kind of schedule for U.S. withdrawal.
Explanation #2 seems much more likely given the recognition among many in Maliki’s coalition that they will require some residual military presence and support from the United States for several years to come.
[Update]Baseball Crank explains well the current rationalizing by Obama and his supporters.
Next came the news from fiercely anti-war and anti-Bush German magazine Der Spiegel that Maliki appeared to have endorsed the 16-month timeframe now pushed by Obama. This was met with predictably fatuous commentary from the Democrats suggesting that somehow Obama had been right all along:"It's a devastating blow to the McCain campaign - not just that Maliki moved to Obama's position but that Bush did as well," said Richard Holbrooke, a former United States ambassador to the United Nations for the Clinton administration.Of course, it's nonsense to suggest that a withdrawal by, say, May 2010 is the same as a withdrawal by March 2008. In the business world or the sports world, being wrong by a margin of more than two years is called "being wrong." Only in politics can you get away with such a thing. It's also nonsense to say that Bush is listening to Obama when Bush only got to where he is now by doing the exact opposite of what Obama was telling him to do for the past year and a half. If someone tells you, "don't eat that sandwich," and you eat the sandwich, and you stop eating when there's no sandwich left, can he then say "you followed my advice! See, you are not eating the sandwich anymore"? Obama is just stealing the credit for other people who succeeded by ignoring him.
With an Obama-friendly media and an al Maliki who is trying to squeeze the Bush administration while negotiating a Status of Forces Agreement, the politics are working in Obama's favor. McCain said he'd rather win a war than win an election, and it may just happen that way.
--
"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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And I agree with Jonah Goldberg for the first time in my life:
Bingo!
--"How is the world ruled, and how do wars start? Diplomats tell lies to journalists and then believe what they read." -- Karl Kraus, 1909
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)More commment, this time from Yglesias:
"How is the world ruled, and how do wars start? Diplomats tell lies to journalists and then believe what they read." -- Karl Kraus, 1909
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| parent )Sen. Dodd was, of course, absolutely correct. The surge has not solved any problems and is merely a delay that is being paid for with American blood.
Do conservatives see a genuine political rapprochement and "unity government" in the cards for Iraq? I thought liberals were supposed to be the ones with the rose-colored glasses.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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)...which went along with the new troops. He was either ignorant or lying when he said that it was a "tactic in search of a strategy". As for the strategy not solving any problems, au contraire.
Do conservatives see a genuine political rapprochement and "unity government" in the cards for Iraq?
There's been quite a bit of rapprochement already. The Sunnis just rejoined the national government a few days ago. That said, I can't predict when and how much additional progress is in the cards.
I thought liberals were supposed to be the ones with the rose-colored glasses.
That only happens when a Democratic is president. Liberals have been talking down the economy since January 2001 and talking down Iraq since March 2003.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )you mean it's all in our heads just like Phil Gramm said?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Few men have whined and wrung their hands with more faux outrage than Christopher Dodd. He is almost as bad as Joe Lieberman.
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| parent ).
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )John Derbyshire:
. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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)The masks are just dropping away, eh?
--Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President. - Bruce Springsteen
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| parent )is close to folks we do not like, both in Syria and Iran. Maliki is after all from SCIRI and DAWA (the folks who blew up our Marine barracks in Beirut).
Which is why Right-leaner support for Maliki as the Iraqi George Washington such induce a sense of incredulity.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )Whew. Who said that? He's always struck me as the kind of conniving. money-sniffing pol who would feel right at home inside the Beltway. If there's one thing we should have learned back when we helped form the KSA, it's that Arabs don't view politics the same way we do.
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )of Arabic politics. They tried under the Ba'athists. Didn't work out. So now they're going back to the tired old Islamism of the Ottomans.
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| parent )Andy McCarthy:
. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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)wouldn't work, he said it would increase sectarian violence. His supporters are doing their best to throw that one down the rabbit hole (thus the "fuggetabout the surge, Maliki agrees with Obama" trope), but it remains a key data point in terms of their guy's lack of comprehension of military and political realities in Iraq. Which is particularly significant for someone with an almost nonexistent record on these issues.
--Rust never sleeps.
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)but nary a word about acknowledging al Maliki's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal plan and what that does to the no timetables, conditions based, leaving=losing narrative of Bush-McCain.
The key isn't the surge, the key is how to get 140k+ US troops home and reduce the flow of taxpayer dollars without blowing the place up. Thanks for finally being able to partially mitigate the mess you created, but we'll take it from here thanks.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I have yet to hear an Obama supported try to explain how he got something this important so wrong. You sure didn't. Shouting down the significance of the surge seems to be the most common dodge.
On the Maliki "endorsement" of Obama, my advice is to wait at least a week to let the concrete set on that one before incorporating it into a campaign slogan. Things change fast there, and you don't want to have to whip out the fallbaack "Bush twisted Maliki's arm" position unless you have to.
Why the personalization? Aren't you the guy who complained when I called Obama "your" messiah? Despite my very close family ties to Prescott Bush and his charming wife Yourethra, no one consulted me before the war, or even during it.
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )Didn't mean to be personal, the last sentence was my fictional retort from Obama to Bush-McCain.
What did Obama get wrong? that 'the surge' in of itself was not going to be the game changer required to end US defacto occupation and bring the troops home? Bush tried to strong arm Maliki with the SOF agreement on the back of the supposed success of 'the surge', but Maliki fought back and the result is an unequivocal endorsement of Obama's withdrawal plan. Some serious bad judgment by Bush-McCain there folks.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )the bribes we paid to Sunni tribal chiefs?
I tend to think those bribes have been very effective (and would have been effective whether or not we surged ~40,000 more troops) and yet neither McCain nor Obama have talked about that much.
Either now or over the last 24 months.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )I mean if we are going to judge the candidates based on what they supported then their views on the war itself is much more important. If you think, like I do, that the war was a dumb idea, it really makes no difference whether McCain or Obama were right about the surge since there is a much bigger judgment call that separates them.
In fact, the same applies the other way. If the surge had been a clear failure but you thought the war was worth it you would still prefer McCain over Obama.
The point is that the supporting or rejecting the surge tells us pretty little about the candidates preferences and judgment com[pared to their support or rejection of the war itself.
--Standard Disclaimer: I only speak for myself. I may or not agree with others. Ask, if you are curious. If I post about X I may not have an opinion about Y, no matter how closely related you think they are.
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| parent )the significance Obama's lack of a stake when he originally opposed the war has been dissected to death, most recently by the Clinton campaign. If you compare the magnitude of starting a war vs the surge, the former trumps the latter for obvious but-for reasons. But the fact is, there really is little to go on in Obama's brief Congressional record, and he may be the least experienced candidate ever. So each decision is potentially more significant than if he had even a couple of Senate terms to jusge him from.
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| parent )A longer response. But until I sit down and write a diary let me just say that the stake should be of no relevance. I had no stake at the time, does that mean my opinion is worthless?
My point is simple. There are a lot of reasons to vote for or against a candidate. But if we are going to focus on their foreign policy judgment the decision to go to war is the single most important.
A separate point is whether the surge has worked or whether it has worked due to the extra troops or something else.
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| parent )And I probably know more about your opinions from your posts here than I do about Obama's w/r/t Iraq. But neither of us are running for office, and both of us have to make decisions about the two who are.
Iraq is not the most important thing to me about Obama's positions. I am more concerned about his apparent willingness to postpone the development of a nuclear power infrastructure for another eight (or ten, as he said recently, perhaps in anticipation of a third term) years. When a pol says they're going to "study" something, it's simple code for doing nothing. He needs to do his studying before November, and it's not hugely complicated issue. Much simpler than foreign policy, for sure.
But on the latter subject, i wonder if his handlers have considered the effect of Obama preaching to huge crowds in Europe, Kerry tried the "four out of five foreign leaders want me as President" shtick and it blew up in his face. I'm not sure Americans care any more about what the French or Germans think about our presidential candidates than they did eight years ago; I sure don't.
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| parent )Link from NRO Corner:
Also, if McCain intended the surge as a strategy or tactic which would allow substantial draw downs in US combat forces, John McCain NEEDS to start saying that loudly and succinctly. That in essence he agrees with Maliki that sometime in 2010 is a realistic and desirable (but not guaranteed) date for the substantial withdrawal of US combat brigades.
If he does that, I will praise him.
Because it appears YOU agree with me on this, maybe I will leave my vote for you unchanged, after all. ;-)
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )with room for all kinds of opinions.
Actually, I've never disputed that Maliki's apparent endorsement of Obama's withdrawal timetable is a big boost for the campaign; all I've said is that Maliki might change his tack. (The forum in which he made his remarks might turn out to be significant, too - why not the Post or the Times?) And that Maliki has expressly credited the surge as the basis for his ability to talk about troop withdrawal. Which takes some of the snap out of this for Obama.
Logically, how can the surge not be a prelude to some form of troop withdrawal. It always was going to be a temporary increase in troops. If you increase troops to stabilize the place and then withdraw those troops when things calm down, why would you stop at just withdrawing the number you surged with? That's how I saw it; sometimes simple is good.
A vote for me is a vote for a change - of underwear. And a pig in every blanket. Against me? Well, the hog is in the tunnel . . .
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| parent )New York Post? Washington Times? - I kid Tomsyl.
Most likely because the Washington Post or the New York Times would have checked with the WH before printing the story and 'clarification' would have ensued before the public got to hear the meat of the story, defeating any agenda Maliki might be pushing.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Can we then withdraw substantially all of our combat brigades in the 16 month period beginning February 2009?
(Plus or minus 2 or 3 months)
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )but I hope it is yes. And that's in part because I pick (a) in answer to your question in another post.
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| parent )If you are correct (and God Bless You) if you are, then John McCain needs to begin saying this LOUDLY.
Let McCain say LOUDLY and without equivocation that the purpose of the surge was to facilitate substantial draw-downs of US combat forces in Iraq in a short time horizon and I will praise him for his foresight.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )for reasons I described above, which still seem logical to me. McCain has attempted to explain away his "100 years" remark, though I can't say with much success.
But more basically, Bill, I am not a supporter of John McCain, for reasons that go way back and aren't particularly relevant here. (I won't forget the S&L stuff, as one example.) I haven't given him any money, and I doubt he'd listen to me even if I did. Plus, his wife's company distributes sh!tty beer.
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| parent )are easily summarized.
McCain thought the war was a good idea at the time and still thinks that.
Obama thought the war was a bad idea at the time and still thinks that.
If you think the benefits from the war are worth the costs, chances are you should vote for McCain.
If you think the benefits from the war are not worth the costs, chances are you should vote for Obama.
--Standard Disclaimer: I only speak for myself. I may or not agree with others. Ask, if you are curious. If I post about X I may not have an opinion about Y, no matter how closely related you think they are.
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)Let's do the time warp again. Play up the judgment in 2002, and ignore the judgment in 2007. Sorry, won't work. At least, not with me.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )The "surge" is an issue the size of a toothpick compared with the massive redwood tree that constitutes the FUBAR-ed decisions made in 2002/2003 by this Administration.
But I'll make you a deal:
If you agree that completing the withdrawal of substantially all of our combat brigades no later than 2010 (16 months +/- 2 or 3 months) is a realistic, attainable and desirable goal (subject only to UNFORESEEN future developments on the ground)
Then . . .
I will agree that the surge played a material role in our getting to this point.
= = =
Here is the crux of the matter -- was the surge intended to
(a) facilitate our getting out of Iraq; or
(b) becoming more deeply embedded in Iraq?
If (a) then perhaps the surge was a good idea after all. If (b) then the opposite answer applies.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )but you're in favor of conditions-based opinions? Sorry, I won't be playing that game. But I'll give you this, it was clever.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )greater numbers I am willing to give it a measure of post hoc credit. Bribery of the Sunnis is a large part of this as well.
We need to draw down very substantially very soon. The security situation on the ground is one factor that needs to be considered and accommodated however it is not a factor that necessarily trumps everything else.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )You think the war was worth it and agree with McCain. Nothing wrong with that.
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| parent )I don't know if the war was worth it. I'm kind of waiting to see how things transpire. As it stands right now, the war was (and is) too costly for the benefits receieved. But, you see, once the decision was made, then the next decision point is what to do next. I made my decision in January 2007 and gave it a deadline for pulling the plug. My central theme both here and in my last Iraq post is that, when it came to the most critical decision point in the Iraq endeavor, Obama and his fellow Democrats judged wrongly. Abysmally wrongly.
In the op-ed that the NYT said wasn't fit to print, McCain made this basic point:
McCain gets a minor ding for mindreading and using a hypothetical, but the proposals that Obama has made--and when he made them--speak for themselves.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )We can divide between those that clearly thought the war was a dumb idea from the start and those that didn't. Obama and McCain clearly differ on this, and it's probably the single biggest foreign policy decision the US has taken in years.
So my point remains. If you want to asses each candidate's foreign policy judgment their stance on the war in 2002 is much, much more important than their view on the surge.
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| parent )Like I said, my opinion as to whether the war was worth it or not depends on how events transpire. Because of this, to me, the most important decision in the Iraq venture dates back to early 2007. When it came to the judgment of (a) do we give up and go home or (b) do we adopt a new strategy, Obama chose (a) and McCain picked (b). If Obama's views prevailed 18 months ago, then I would say that Iraq not only wasn't worth it, but damaged our nation akin to how our nation was damaged in Vietnam. Thankfully, Obama's views didn't prevail.
I don't know if the surge strategy will be worth it or not, given how it's gone, I think it's still worth pursuing. Obviously a few here believe that we've irretriebably lost, but if we can get Iraq close to a free, peaceful, non-theocratic representative republic that can protect itself and not threaten others, then I'd say it was worth it, provided it doesn't take too long to happen.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )You still haven't decided if the war was worth it or not then your approach is simply not useful in judging candidates. After all I can simply argue that we need another 4 years to decide if the surge was worth it.
Of course, that's not how life works. Your approach can be useful for a historian but I am focusing on voters making a choice in November.Most people have already decided, rightly or wrongly, if the war was worth it. Given that they have a great way to decide whose judgment they trust most.
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| parent )To me, my position is perfectly sensible. It is perfectly logical to say that the strategy is working and should be given additional time to continue, based on current trendlines. That also is how life can work.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )Anything about strategies. Whatever you think about that is irrelevant to my point.
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| parent )That knife has been sharpened every day we've been in Iraq. Ir's an Islamic Republic, BD. Very sad, but true.
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| parent )You guys need to run against the Obama we have not the Obama you wished you had.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )That remains to be seen, doesn't it? The election is an eon away from today. Kerry was always a shoe-in, those in the know said.
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )is encouraging grass-roots empowerment and the enhancement of political organizing skills among Left-leaning-folk (LLF for insiders) at all levels: national, state and local.
And that is a good thing, no matter what else happens.
= = =
PS - I pulled that "LLF" term from my bleep-bleep so don't bother with google.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )Heh. Which, in due time, may be the best place to look for his general election prospects.
(Media Note: Imagine the hew and cry if Senator Obama had said this.)
--"How is the world ruled, and how do wars start? Diplomats tell lies to journalists and then believe what they read." -- Karl Kraus, 1909
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)We get it.
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURAGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURAGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURAGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURAGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURAGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGE
SURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURGESURAGESURGE
Hey. It beats trying to spin Maliki's endorsement of Obama's timetable. Carry on!
--"How is the world ruled, and how do wars start? Diplomats tell lies to journalists and then believe what they read." -- Karl Kraus, 1909
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)Iraqi PM backs Obama troop exit plan (Update IV)
Done and dusted.
If the Bush-McCain policy remains stuck on leaving=losing its game over folks. America wants out and if a significant number of people demand a declaration of 'Vivtory', effusive praise for the troops and ticker tape parades as the price for leaving then I'm sure Obama will oblige, he'd be a fool not to.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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)you'll actually get it right.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )No more spin, just insults? C'mon man, you might want to consider punting on the Maliki statement. After a while?
Embarrassment starts to set in.
--"How is the world ruled, and how do wars start? Diplomats tell lies to journalists and then believe what they read." -- Karl Kraus, 1909
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| parent )but lecturing me on insults? In Star Wars speak, you are the master and I am the apprentice.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )Without al Maliki issuing a significant retraction of his endorsement of Obama's withdrawal plan or his other statements contradicting the Bush-McCain narrative, then McCain's goose is cooked. He can't claim leaving=losing any more, not now Maliki has signed on to withdrawal closely following Obama's plan and all he has left is the weak tea argument that 'the surge' set the stage for Obama's plan to work.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )And at the end of the day, after all the milk has been spilled, and the blood too, (but not all the crying will be done for the grieving will go on for years), the Iraqi opinion is the only one that matters.
Iraqis, I cannot say emphatically enough, are sick of us in the their country. The Surge did not work, and nobody can say it has. We have bought off our enemies and tolerated the rise of yet another Islamic police state.
Solitudinem fecerunt, pacem appelunt - They made a desert and called it peace. Now the Latin is important here, Tacitus' old dictum, appelunt, they named it. A whole lot of Naming goes on in the Bush Regime.
The Surge: a last-ditch attempt to spread the two pats of butter across the forty acres of hot toast.
Sons of Iraq: enemies sated with bribes. Classic technique of the Byzantines, who paid off their enemies for centuries. Also used by Saddam Hussein for decades.
The New Iraq: a sectarian Islamic police state, run by a Western-backed power.
Time Horizon: a tacit admission colonization has failed.
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)(a theme that shows up a lot here as a counter to the Occam's Law result that the surge worked), then won't the violence resume when the bribes stop? And if there is a withdrawal followed by a dramatic increase in separatist violence, what does that say about an American president who oversaw the withdrawal?
I've seen a number of reports from in-country that contradict your statement implying that the Iraqis want us out of their country post-haste. The reported theme seems to be more nuanced and self-contradictory than that, more like they want soldiers out but want the security that their presence provides. How many Iraqis believe that their own security forces are ready now to maintain order without our help?
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )Violence had begun to taper off immediately once we started bribing the Sunnis. The real Surge, the one nobody wants to admit is this: the Sunni Surge, reclaiming the wreckage of their own society. The Americans had wrecked it. That's a plain, simple, obvious and completely unavoidable fact. That wreckage happened in three stages.
First stage, we overthrew Saddam Hussein and the Sunni hegemony.
Second stage: Bremer disbands the Iraqi Army, and the Zawahiri warlords move in with foreign jihadis.
Third stage: the Sunnis revolt against both the Americans and Zawahiri. It's a three way war. The Sunnis approach the Americans with the proposition: we won't kill your troops if you arm and pay us. The Americans grumbled, but they did it.
But Stage 3 only sets the stage for a Sunni / Shiite civil war to follow our exit. Both sides are feverishly arming. Maliki, to his credit, is trying to forestall the inevitable: he knows the Shiites are not united and will connive against his SCIRI/Dawa, especially his Interior Ministry, the worst of all the militias in Iraq.
Where are these much-vaunted reports? Are they in English or in Arabic? I read the Arabic papers every day, Azzaman out of Iraq, Egypt, KSA, Kuwait. I see everyone in the neighborhood worried about the Lebanon-ization of Iraq. Everyone can find something to support his own opinion, but I would strongly advise anyone from supporting an opinion which doesn't have an Arab or a Farsi behind it.
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| parent )BD posted a few in-country sources a few diaries ago, but if you are unaware of this stuff I will track it down for you.
Am I to understand your info comes from newspapers? i had the impression you regularly were in touch with actual Iraqi citizens and refugees. they would seem like a much more reliable source than the Arabic equivalent of the MSM, particularly from third-party countries.
Again, the key question: what happens in Iraq after we stop paying the bribes you said abated the violence that the surge is being credited for?
--Rust never sleeps.
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| parent )for Jordan, and they're dropped off the radar last year. There are a few Iraqis I know from online, more in Detroit. Some Kurds in Chicago and Houston. I had friends in 3ID, they're now rotating out of Iraq.
I'm in regular contact with a Pashtun reporter from Peshawar.
You know perfectly well the Arabs tune their statements to their audiences. If you want to know what Iraqis think to be important, read their papers.
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| parent )etc that you referred to. Are their audiences Iraqis?
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| parent )and you see newsstands everywhere. Iraqis chiefly care about developments in Egypt, Syria and Lebanon. And, of course, Iran.
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| parent )Troop levels are irrelevant. Bribes are what matter.
If the Iraqis have been bribed into relative peace, then maybe we need to raise taxes so we can afford to pay bribes for the indefinite future. Or, maybe we withdraw troops and cut the DoD budget but continue to pay bribes.
After all, we continue to pay Egypt to not fight Israel.
--. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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| parent )that she supports John McCain?
. . . and it looks as though they’ll punish the monkey and let the organ grinder go . . .
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)Look, it is very simple. The 20 thousand extra troops was not the pivotal factor that lowered the casualties. Sorry. Though it is to be expected you would hang everything - the election, the war, Obama's fitness to be Pres, McCain's record, the Dem's cowardice