Why are the Democrats nominating another unlikeable candidate?
I may be jumping the gun here, but it looks to me like Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic candidate for president. To me, this says something about either the slate of candidates, the nominating process, the nominators themselves or some combination thereof. Hillary is a highly processed package put together by the Clinton political machine in order to secure the nomination and win the presidency. There's nothing wrong with that on her part, but I think it's important to recognize it for what it is. Every candidate tries to manage the media and put forward his or her best image, but Hillary has taken it to an unprecedented degree.
Clinton, D-N.Y., is running perhaps the most media-controlled -- and media-obsessed -- campaign in presidential history. Her aides carefully screen access to the candidate, generally avoid news conferences on the campaign trail and have been known to throw around the Clintons' considerable weight to block negative stories and influence coverage of the candidate they're protecting and promoting.[...]
The latest episode to emerge, reported Monday by Politico, offers a window into how the campaign uses perhaps its biggest asset -- former President Bill Clinton -- to protect Sen. Clinton's reputation.
According to Politico, Clinton aides convinced GQ's editors to spike an unflattering piece about the campaign's inner workings by threatening the magazine's access to the former president, who is the subject of a planned cover story.
GQ representatives have confirmed that they killed a planned story on the Clinton campaign, though they refuse to comment on their reasons.
Why the tight media control? One, because Hillary can get away with it, and two, because (unlike her husband) the more people see of her the less they like her, suffering a similar malady as John F. Kerry. At least, that's my theory. Just as a personal observation, there's something in the pitch of her voice that pains my ears. But I don't think I'm alone in this, judging by her high negatives.
It's not just right-of-center folks like me who are reacting like this. Democrats are also concerned about how Hillary comes across.
A leaked Democratic poll has suggested that Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner in the race for the party's presidential nomination, could lose the 2008 election because of her "very polarised image".The survey by the Democratic pollsters Lake Research indicated that both Mrs Clinton and Barack Obama, second in the Democratic race, trailed Rudy Giuliani, the Republican front runner, in 31 swing congressional districts.
The private memo, leaked to The Washington Post, painted what researchers described as a "sobering picture" for Democrats who believe that President George W Bush's disastrous favourability numbers almost guarantee they will capture the White House next year.
All party preference polls show that Democrats are much more popular than Republicans. But when the names of individual candidates are used, the gap narrows considerably.
"The images of the two early [Democratic] favourites are part of the problem," the memo said.
The leaked poll found that Mr Giuliani, a centrist Republican with liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gay rights, leads Mrs Clinton by 49 per cent to 39 per cent in the swing districts.
The former New York mayor enjoyed a much slimmer lead of just one per cent over Mr Obama in the poll, conducted in August. It has long been known that Mrs Clinton has "high negatives" among voters but the assessment of Mr Obama that his "image is soft, and one-fifth of voters do not gave a firm impression of him" was a surprise.
I've written before that I would keep an open mind regarding the Democrats, but there's no way I could support Hillary, and my views haven't changed. There's just too much baggage from the Bill Clinton era for me to stomach. David Geffen's words strike too close to home: "Everybody in politics lies, but they [Bill and Hillary] do it with such ease, it's troubling."
There's one other thing that's mildly baffling and irritating. In 2004, the Democrats nominated a fella who they thought could win, suppressing the fact that Howard Dean and the other candidates were more ideologically aligned with the base. 2008 looks like 2004 warmed over. Because of Hillary's relatively hawkish stand on Iraq (and the WAMI), together with her affiliation with the DLC, there are plenty of other candidates whose views more closely hove to the party faithful. As I see it, it looks like once again the majority of Democrats will prefer electability over principles. The one difference this time around is the star power generated by her husband.
Disclaimers: The Republican process isn't much different. After all, the GOP twice nominated a candidate in George W. Bush who proved to be incompetent. However, on the Democrat side, Hillary's lead is comfortable and widening and the Republican race is tightening, which will make for vigorous campaigns and a well-honed candidate for the general election. I'm reasonably okay with any of the four top candidates, although I am leaning toward McCain at this point. Unfortunately, he's done too many things to turn off the GOP base. On the Democrat side, I would still take long looks at Obama and Richardson and Edwards if they were viable. Biden lost me for good with his preachy hectoring during the Petraeus-Crocker testimony.
(Edited here and there)
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"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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)Funny how Clinton is ahead in the polls and I have yet to meet a single person who supports her. I don't, but may hold my nose in the general.
... Depends on how many more Lieberman-sponsored amendments threatening Iran get passed in the Senate by Ds between now and 11/08:
It is the Sense of the Senate:
....
(3) that it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and [stop] the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its foreign facilitators such as Lebanese Hezbollah, and its indigenous Iraqi proxies;
(4) to support the prudent and calibrated use of all instruments of United States national power in Iraq, including diplomatic, economic, intelligence, and military instruments, in support of the policy described in paragraph (3) with respect to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies.
http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/Kyl-Lieberman%20Amendment.pdf
... So instead of placing constraints on the Iraq war, this amend., seemingly authorizing Bush admin.-directed force against Iran passes 76-22.
Is this the national party platform for '08? Clinton voted for, where Lugar and Hagel vote against.
I voted 3rd party in '00. Don't make me do it again.
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)....feeling inside. Win-win! :^)
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )Curious why "roll back" swapped out for "[stop]" -- I'm not entirely sure they mean the same thing here.
--Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
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| parent )doesn't make much difference to my ears, but then why do it at all. I copied it from somewhere and now forget...
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| parent )Clintoris? Funny, but sounds like a skin condition. You just can't beat the classics, I guess.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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)You didn't watch enough Seinfeld, clearly.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent ).
--For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin
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| parent )for the exact same reason the Republicans are doing it.
There is a simple answer to every stupid question, no don't thank me you're too kind - I do it as a service, gratis.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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).... ... ........ .. ...... ........-....... .... .
...? ............... ....... .....!
--... .... .. ...... .......
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)Best name, too. (Sorry Darth C. - you're a close second.)
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )"Have the Ghost of Marcel Marceau exorcised"
--It's not only redundant, it's also repetitive
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| parent )"Advertize outlandish exorcism rates in Darth Cuddly's local paper"
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| parent )A one time only guaranteed standby discount.
--It's not only redundant, it's also repetitive
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| parent )('' )
( '')
( ..)
('-')
m(._.)m
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent ):D !
--For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin
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| parent )The perfect way to write this punctuation mark is to overlap the symbols so that the dots line up. This can be done well on a standard typewriter. When on a stupid computer with the interrobang missing from the standard characters in the fontset, it's this: ?! (I know, unicode has it, but I'm too lazy...)
...........(_!_)........Cheers!
--Me: We! -- Ali
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| parent ):b ؟
--For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin
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| parent )Smart (_!_).
;-}
--Me: We! -- Ali
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| parent )What is Guiliani's stance on gun control laws, abortion and gay rights again?
If you want to be baffled and irritated by people who chose electability over principles then you don't have to look outside your own party.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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)and if gun control or abortion or gay rights were my one or two hot-button issues, you'd have a point.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )So the Republicans look at their candidates as a whole, including each candidate's electibility, and then decide which one they like best. While the Dems "prefer electability over principles". Is that how it is?
I really get a kick out of Republicans telling me, a Democrat, what I think and how I arrive at my conclusions. If you really believe we are willing to sacrifice our principles for electibility then you don't understand us at all and should stop pretending to.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent )the two most important issues are going to be the economy and the war. If the party base is divergent with Hillary on one of those two big issues, then what other conclusion is there to be drawn?
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )for the non political junkies who will decide the election.
Taking my cue from the 2000 election, how different will each candidate be from the current occupant? the further the better.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )...40% of the base prefers Hillary and the other 60% prefer someone else or haven't made up their minds yet. You are drawing conclusions about what the entire Democratic base thinks based on what 40% of us think.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent )*HRC is uncharismatic. This is definitely true; she's always had a stiff, screechy screen presence, can't tell a joke or take one, and doesn't simulate emotions well. Unless she warms to the camera in the coming months, it could well make her unelectable.
*"they lie with such ease, it's troubling." I don't understand this objection. The question about politicians is not whether they lie or not, or even how good they are at lying. It's *what* they lie about. Clinton lying to protect his illicit & somewhat creepy relationship with an intern is utterly harmless from a nat. security point of view. Bush lying to create a casus belli for Iraq is a whole other world of dangerous mendacity. Why conservatives can't appreciate this distinction is beyond me.
*the Dems choose electability over principles. Wha? You just spent half the diary talking about why HRC *isn't* electable. Viz., she's unpleasant on camera, carries too much baggage, and is a polarizing figure. All true. The truth is it's neither principles nor electability: HRC is a veteran campaigner with a huge party machine behind her. If she's nominated, it will be like Kerry because of campaign apparatus much more than the wishes of actual Democrats.
*you can't vote for Hillary. And yet, she's very much a centrist like you are, hawkish on foreign policy and she's seen the light on entitlement reform. Plus she's experienced in the White House and tough as nails. Health care reform is quickly approaching the point where it's no longer a matter of choice.
Taking an honest look at this diary, I'd say you've got some very mixed feelings about Hillary.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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)I like that!.
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| parent )Check out the front and center image link
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )And probably telling some taser-toting guards to eject you from the room. %^>
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Most conservatives don't believe that Bush lied about WMDs, so your thesis about "big Bush lies" and "little Clinton lies" doesn't wash. The Senate Intelligence Committee and others have done their investigations. The intelligence itself on WMDs was skimpy and flawed, but the administration--not to mention countless Democrats--believed that Saddam had large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, and that he was trying to reconstitute his nuclear program. The Chicago Tribune did a lengthy investigation here, and in fact did much of legwork the Senate should have done in phase II. There is no evidence to suggest that Bush & Co. were convinced that there no WMDs but were trying to push for war anyway.
I don't believe Hillary's a centrist, she's just packaging herself that way. From what I could tell, her husband was closer to the middle. If she's elected, she's going to take the highly partisan Clinton noise machine with her, with operatives flooding the media and spinning like mad, just like the old days of the 1990s. I predict that the next four or eight years, in terms of civility and discourse and whatnot, are going to be worse than what we've seen in the Bush II era. They'll bring with them the equivalent of bare-knuckled political UFC types into the arena, and GOPers are going to fight back just as hard. For me, I'd rather bypass that brain damage and go with someone who doesn't have the last name Bush or Clinton.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )but my problem with Hilary is that she won't fight the media narrative hard enough. It's time to start destroying newspapers and other news organizations that lie to us when their corporate masters tell them to.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )And do you mean corporate masters like Pinch Sultzberger, or is there someone pulling the wee fellow's strings in your view?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Okay, I'll bite. To what are you referring?
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Link. Running about 75-80% positive by my rough count. Want more?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )The question isn't whether or not the coverage is positive, but whether it is deservedly positive -- and whether the positive articles are placed front and center with the negative articles placed in the back, or vice-versa. As of now, there are nothing but essentially positive things to say about Clinton -- she is the well-respected frontrunner in a gloves-on campaign who is doing a good job both as a Senator and as a campaigner. Wait until there's some negative thing to play with, and see where in the paper it gets reported (and rehashed, and reported as truth after it was debunked, et cetera).
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )sounds good to me too. If each administration is going to continue dropping the signal/noise ratio the way the last 2 have, I'm gonna start pushing to have the capital moved somewhere else and let DC just collapse on itself.
"Packaging herself that way" -- all of her stated policies are centrist, so's her voting record, and Bill was centrist in office. The record speaks for itself, and so do her flaws...no reason to play the hypocrisy card IMO.
I believe the Bush people thought they were doing the right thing, and that because they were doing the right thing they were justified in cherry picking and creating an impression of certainty that was never there. I further think they believe(d) that's what good leadership is: projecting certainty and not looking back. The real mistake they made was not playing fast & loose with the facts but *failing* to convince the country not only that the war was necessary, but that the long haul etc. was necessary. They didn't really lead, in other words, they just wrangled the minimum support to get a go, then trusted blind luck to make things work out. They also refused to face the "what happens after" question, their second grave mistake, even though people like me as well as people whose opinions matter in the administration hollered warnings about insurgency, civil war, & regional instability from the get go. This wasn't stopped clock guesswork either -- it was bleeding fricking obvious what the postwar was likely to look like. So, "lie" is shorthand for "refused to face obvious truths or respect other valid points of view." Good work if you can get it, but unfortunately as we can see, it damaged their ability to govern.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )While I'm not for moving the capital I am all for moving a lot of the agencies. That's a lot of federal payroll being spent in one area. No reason not to spread that around a bit.
--It's not only redundant, it's also repetitive
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| parent )Why don't you just run down Pennsylvania Ave. with a barrel of bacon rashers tied to your back if you're so eager to start World Pork Three?
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )First off, the way Bush and Co. went casting about for a casus belli may not have been out and out mendacious, but it led them to see what they wanted to see. Worse was simply discounting Blix when he said that he wasn't finding much of anything. The result has been that the American public is far less willing to put up with the Iraq debacle than it might have been and the entire planet is leery of believing the U.S. even when President A. is essentially saying, "I'm building a bomb and you can't stop me!"
As for whether or not Hillary is a leftist in centrist clothing, I think that a good indicator that the Usual Suspects* are screaming that she is neoliberal Zionist corporate lackey. As I noted below, she's one of the only Democratic candidates offering a responsible pull-out from Iraq.
As for the issues that made her such a lighting rod back in the 90's, I will freely admit I find her ideas of the responsibilities of the State as opposed to the family to be a bit disquieting, but I think that the positives outweigh the negatives. As for the biggie, national Health Care, her plan, while something of a bureaucratic monstrosity was *not* a social democrat-style single payer system. It wasn't even a Canadian style system where doctors more or less stay independent and the government cuts them a check. It was essentially a system to supplement the current patchwork of private insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid.
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| parent )That "comfortable and widening" just hangs out there...
low and inviting.
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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)Hillary is crushing (okay, easily besting) the competition among this key Democratic constituency.
Frankly, I don't think any of the boys can overcome it.
I've written before that I would keep an open mind regarding the Democrats, but there's no way I could support Hillary, and my views haven't changed.
Amen, brother. Plenty of us on this side don't relish the opportunity to vote for her, either. (Some of us console ourselves by reminding each other that we will be voting for Democratic administrators, lawyers, bureaucrats, 'Good Government' types, SCOTUS nominees, WJ Clinton staffers, et al, and not really HRC.)
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)Any Democratic administration is going to do a better job of governing than the "drown the government in a bathtub" Republicans.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent )Someone should write a concern Troll diary in the same vein, decrying the loss of the pre-'94 sensible Republican opposition that might could keep President Hillary on the straight and narrow once she takes office.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )While she's got a good chance of winning the nomination, her chances are way overstated. Around this time in 2003 we were in a Wes Clark bubble... remember he briefly (for about a week) led polls. At that time, Dean was registering but hadn't pulled away, and Kerry was way back in the pack.
At this point, polls just reflect name ID. You've got to look at the bellweathers: donors and activist excitement. I think both Edwards and Obama are in the thick of the race.
--More Wagster!
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)hasn't maxed out contributions and gets lots of small donations from lots of people.
Good point, we'll need to wait a while before things shake out.
--Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
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| parent )It looks very bad to me right now.
The only silver lining is that the GOP isn't doing much better. Giuliani is dangerous, but I don't see how he can walk past the pro-life wing of the GOP. McCain is as tough a sell as Hillary. The others have some ways to go on a national level.
In this situation, Bill Clinton or Arnold Schwarzenegger could walk away with the general election so easily it's ridiculous.
Just when we need strong candidates, no viable ones are to be found.
Mi new sig grows more applicable by the day.
--Of course not!
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)Obama isn't quite done yet, but he's got a lot of potential, and there is a ton to like about Edwards.
Heck, Chris Dodd is starting to grow on me.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )She's the perfect choice for 2008. In the first place, she'd have the general election locked up. The folks who hate her with the white hot intensity of a thousand suns are the folks who wouldn't vote for any Democrat--the last few years have taught us that firing up the base only works when you've got a reasonable shot of holding the center. When you try firing up the base with, "Man, don't you hate Mexicans? We sure do!" when the center is asking "How can we be losing a war against Iraq?" the base's motivating hate gets you jack and s***.
Moreover, most of the U.S. remembers what it was like when a centrist Democrat named Clinton was in the oval office. Most people would like to have that back. And there's the fact that health care has only gotten more expensive since 1993.*
She's also pretty much the only Democrat whose plan for extricating ourselves from the Iraq pooch-screw isn't "We are beaten! Flee, flee now before all is lost!"
The Democrats could pretty much win in 2008 if they run a mangy, incontinent St. Bernard that randomly humps people's legs. They can easily win with Hillary.
--------------------------
*If it were just me, I'd prefer to simply shell out the insurance money than to see my taxes go up an equivalent amount and then have the government tell me that such frivolous luxuries like physical therapy are not covered by the government plan and thus still need to buy supplemental insurance. But I can see how someone who is a 7-11 manager and gets supplied with the crappiest possible health plan that still costs in excess of $120.00 a month might think otherwise.
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| parent )I don't hate Hillary with white hot intensity, but I sure dislike her and I don't trust her instincts or like her program.
And I vote Democrat, and contribute. And no, I've never given a dime to MoveOn.org.
But I didn't vote for Hillary in New York just now when I had the chance. Like I said, I really don't like her. And I'm not alone. It's not just the crazies on dKos. The environmental movement doesn't trust her, for the most part.
I'm hoping for Gore, but I think the probability he will run is less than 1/3. October will tell us, one way or the other.
--Of course not!
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| parent )I'm not sure why, but she simply doesn't inspire a lotta folks. And as you mention, it's not just the Kos crowd. A couple friends of mine have worked with the Clintons for years, helped Bill get elected governor. They're supporting Obama.
It's based on not trusting her. And also, I think, not wanting to go through another Clinton Wars election.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )perhaps a small part, but there nonetheless, is a need to get out of this period in history. And Hillary is a big part of it, in a bad way.
--Of course not!
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| parent )And I dare the Dems to run him. The last plaintiffs' PI lawyer to win the presidency was who? And the last one to lose? (Hint: all of his clients were bald.)
Seriously, good points on HRC. Is it ultimately about winning the presidency, or losing it because you nominated a candidate who's too far from the center?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent ).
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )The folks who hate her with the white hot intensity of a thousand suns are the folks who wouldn't vote for any Democrat.
This is entirely incorrect in as much as you're talking about a significant percentage of the Democratic party. Diaries such as this are quite common on DailyKos.
Edited: s/half/significant percentage
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I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered. My life is my own.
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| parent )as a candidate from my perspective; if they hate her so intensely, she must be doing something right. And from an overall "gravitas" standpoint, I thought she won the debate last night. Obama still seems too green, Biden and Dodd are tired political hacks, and I just find it impossible to take Edwards seriously. Except for My Favorite Martian, the others were so waxen I was looking for wicks sticking out of their heads. If I had to vote Dem, Clinton would likely be my choice at this point.
Clinton does have a horrid fingernails-on-the-blackboard tone of voice when she gets riled up about something, but she's clearly got a personality coach of some kind as part of her team to help her tone it down. She's also smiling a lot, which is new.
But isn't the bottom line this question: Is the country ready for a woman president? (For that matter, is the country ready for an African-American president? and if so, which choice is it more ready for?) The Dems appear to be putting their eggs in the "yes" basket WRT both questions; and on that narrow issue I admire them for it.
[EDIT: To avoid wilful misinterpretation, the questions I listed have nothing to do with my own beliefs, and everything to do with general electoral preferences.]
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Like her husband, HRC will be one of the best Republican presidents of the last 50 years. :) I suspect that in the reality of a Clinton presidency you would find much to like.
The fact that you would vote for Clinton (and the political calculus that drives your decision) is largely why the Democratic base doesn't like her.
As for your last paragraph, I believe that the country is ready. If neither of them can get elected, I think it will be due to our broken political system, and not because of the readiness of the country.
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I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered. My life is my own.
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| parent )I'm just a proxy for my son's vote because he will turn 18 during the tenure of the next president, so he gets to pick who it will be. No word from him yet on tentative choices, though - he hasn't spoken since Halo 3 came out.
The "Hil/Bill DINO" theme hasn't played particularly well in the past IMO; are you basing your critique only on her Iraq position, or is there something more that offsets her positions on, say, immigration, nationalized health care, SS retirement accounts or the like?
And I'm not sure what you mean by the Dem base - dKos/MOO members, the DLC, or something between them?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )he hasn't spoken since Halo 3 came out Heh - it may be a while.
My critique such as it is largely revolves around three issues:
1. Her continuing support (now weakening) for the Iraq war
2. Her center right economic/trade policy (DLC Wing)
3. Her naked pandering
Her support for strong social programs is a positive, but it is all but inevitable. They are very popular programs. Any sensible moderate Republican would support SS, and health care is a real crisis. Large US corporations will ultimately push for a solution as they get destroyed by companies that operate without these expenses.
The DLC is persona non grata with the Democratic base. All the candidates (even Hillary) have snubbed their events. dKos is not nearly as "leftist" as many would like to think. I feel that the demographics of dKos are a pretty good fit for the democratic party at large. Immigration is not really a left/right issue.
I wasn't critiquing her so much as using your own political thinking to prove a point. Your political views don't match up with the democratic rank and file. So it should be no surprise that the candidate you would pick, wouldn’t be popular with them.
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I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered. My life is my own.
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| parent )and I don't think anyone will win without it. But hopefully doing it does not involve her getting naked - I don't think I can take a wardobe malfunction at this point.
I just can't buy your point about the Kossites representing the Dem mainstream. There's just too much anger, obscenities and cosseting of wingers there. Occasionally there are quite intelligent diaries and commentary, but the more reaasonable and mainstream they are, the more they get shouted down, caller traitors and fools, and so forth. Frothing anger just doesn't sell in the mainstream IMO.
Practical example: Moulitsas' wholehearted financial and PR backing of Lieberman's clueless opponent (now so obscure I can't remember his name) in the Conn Dem primary last year. That accomplished exactly what?
Immigration is really a battle of both parties' bases against the agendas of their leadership. Pol after poll proves this, and the fiasco that resulted the last time around nopefully showed both Bush and the Congressmonkeys from both sides that you can'f fool all of the voters all of the time.
I'm not remotely suggesting that my views represent those of any democrat; in fact, I'd be concerned if they did. My opinions were those of a conservative trying to look at Dem candidates as objectively as I can - that's all.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )I just can't buy your point about the Kossites representing the Dem mainstream.
You don't have to buy it, that's allowed. :) Remember two things: 1. Most Democrats are very angry right now. They may not foam at the mouth, but the anger is quite real. 2. dKos is like any other on line community. There are some highly visible diarists, and it can be easy to cherry pick. However the majority of members only comment occasionally or lurk. If you think that dKos is some crazy outfit, you have another think coming.
WRT Liberman's challenger Ned Lamont - might I remind you that he won the primary. To my mind - that is indicative of support from the base. It was only crossover voting from R's that kept Liberman in office.
My opinions were those of a conservative trying to look at Dem candidates as objectively as I can
See Bernard's diaries on confirmation bias. :)
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I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered. My life is my own.
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| parent )As opposed to the 50,000 people who frequent dkos, you'll get a resounding "huh?"
I'll admit that many of the activists have a problem with the quote "DLC" or whatever but these are the purity trolls of the democratic party.
IMO, Clinton's positions on trade are center-left and classically liberal. They're driven by sound economic thinking and are the consensus of the economic community - that doesn't mean that globalization doesn't bring a unique set of challenges to us, it just means that putting up barriers to trade will exacerbate some of those problems and create others. Those who are of the "smash a starbucks and burn down the WTO" mentality will vote for her anyways because their friends have been yelling at htem for voting nader for 7 years now.
As far as naked pandering, well, it's a presidential race. I'll admit you're right that she's vulnerable to attacks on the war but if those haven't gotten traction yet, they're not going to anytime soon.
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| parent )It not so much the "DLC" per se, but the policies that they represent. WRT whether HRC's policy is left or right, perhaps our view of where the center is may be different.
To my thinking, many Democrats are looking for some economic populism (right, wrong or indifferent) and she certainly isn't proposing much of that.
Edit - should proof before hitting post
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I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered. My life is my own.
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| parent )standpoint. Agree point for point with your comments re Dem voters (though not with the "sound econ thinking" necessarily).
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )my profession is profoundly wrong on a few issues, and international trade is one of them.
As for the DLC's obscurity, that was part of the problem -- no one had heard of them, yet everyone went to all of their functions and toed their lines. It's much better now that their obscurity matches their influence, another win for the netroots.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )...nice 2008, ain't it? :^)
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )Is no Lisa Murkowski, just sayin'.
Gravitas is right, along with political acumen and the will to fight and win. Rudy will get spanked on national TV in prime time, by a woman no less, set your Tivo.
How many years of Dallas did we put up with as a nation without much complaint? I can stand a little more dynasty if it means showing the post-94 Republican party currently ensconced in Washington the door for a while.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I'm just talking from the peanut gallery, from where it looks like she's the Dem candidate worth taking most seriously. She's smart and assertive, and hasn't been in Congress for the last thirty years. She got blasted last night for her previous positions on nat'l health care, but I still think she won the debate. Anda I presume she's surrounded by top-notch fixers, some of whom will take administration positions if she wins. I didn't think much about the qualifications of WJC's cabinet members and staff, but many of them were shrewd, smart people.
But my broader point is that the Dems are assuming that a majority of the voters in this country will go with a woman as president for the first time in our history. I have no data on the subject; I just think that's a big "if".
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )but it's her turn and with an spectacularly unpopular male doofus as predecessor and nothing much more likely looking waiting offstage right, it's time to see if America is ready to stand tall and be counted alongside the community of nations such as the UK, Germany, Israel, India, Pakistan, New Zealand, the Philippines, and others who have already made the leap. In many cases sometime ago, I might add.
I'm looking forward to our first gay 1st couple, surely they couldn't run up a bill for WH decor and accents any bigger than Nancy's famed efforts? I owe the Bushes that much, their down home ranch dressing doesn't appear for now to have put a severe strain on the treasury at least. I only wish the same could be said for the economy I live in and the state of our armed forces. Help is on the way.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )and don't want to defame certain regions of the country by mentioning them specifically, but I suspect that when it comes right down to it, there will be quite a number of Americans who simply can't bring themselves to vote for either a woman or an African-American. And I don't just mean male voters.
How large of a group that is, and whether the election will be close enough for them to be the swing votes, are the $64K questions, right?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )just guessing mind, that most of the unreconstructed are concentrated in regions of the country not considered likely by recent results to vote for a democratic candidate regardless of gender or race, not since the great schism of the early 60's. That's not to discount the Archie Bunker types distributed randomly throughout the country, you understand.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )and there may be more of them than you or the DNC thinks. And AFA them not being/voting Dem, I wouldn't be so sure. There are a lot more male Dem Congresspeople that there are females. And what people do in the secrecy of the voting booth is anyone's guess.
Anyway, this is just a WAG on my part; I don't know personally anyone who I think would automatically vote against a candidate based on sex or race. At least, no one of my generation.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )The question is where those biased voters will make an impact, and if in fact they live in states that won't be voting Repub anyway.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )I lived in the Boston area during the race riots over busing to integrate the area schools (immortalized by an absolutely unforgettable front-page Globe picture of a white townie assaulting a black HS student with the American flag on a staff). And every major coastal metro area is both liberal and has had major race riots, sometimes quite recently. So racism (and presumably sexism) isn't necessarily limited to the usual suspect regions.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )It really is all about hating folks like me, isn't it?
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )That is so far out of left field that you surprised even me.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )"if they hate her so intensely, she must be doing something right"
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| parent )Sorry, but I call 'em as I see 'em. That site's the poster boy for the far frothing left, and you know it. How does liking something they hate = hatred of PM? Is he them? Or is they he? Or am I a walrus?
(But even a wristwatch with Bush's face on it that's been repeatedly stomped on by a steaming Kossiphile is right once a sidereal year, and they were right on Lieberman, weren't they? Not.)
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )And we were right about Lieberman (CT - Lieberman), both his politics and the tremendous utility of whupping him in the primaries.
The Dems got real used to being a minority Party real quick. We don't need minority Dems. We need majority Dems. If y'all want Senator Lieberman (CT - Lieberman), y'all can have him.
The issue is, was, and will remain gross corruption. Policy issues are almost irrelevant in the context of a government which sells its contracts and laws to the highest bidders. Lieberman (CT - Lieberman) is a part of that culture, and he'll it's that craven disregard for the trust of office which inspires us to fight him. At least we got him out of the Party.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Putting your time, money and effort into backing the loser in the general election? And if Lieberman isn't part of the Dem party, why does he caucus and generally vote with the them? Do they treat him as if he were a Republican, or even an independent? I doubt it - they need his vote too much, so they can avoid being minority Dems, I guess.
I'm betting that what you consider to be "the Democratic Party" is actually a relatively small subset of same. And I guess it's your way or the highway. OK, got it.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Lieberman (CT - Lieberman) was the go-to man for Fox News when they needed a Dem to repeat Republican talking points in attacking the Party. As an independent, he is nowhere near as useful a fool, and it would have been worth losing the seat to expel a person who spent their energy trying to destroy the institution of which he was nominally a part.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )...the Connecticut for Lieberman Party who views it in his best interest to caucus with the Democrats. I don't deny him that privilege, but running against the Democratic candidate in a Senate race is not the action of a Democrat.
In the meantime, the progressive left demonstrated that there are actual consequences for taking us for granted -- that primary candidates are, in fact, capable of winning against incumbents who are hugely unpopular with the rank and file. This significantly changed Dems' messaging in 2006, in my opinion, as well as forced Dem institutions, such as the DCCC, to reevaluate the power of netroots constituencies. One result of this was stronger support for non-targeted races, which was crucial in making it possible for the Dems to enjoy the level of success they did in 2006.
The average Lieberman (CT - Lieberman) voter probably believed Holy Joe when he said, “I want to get our troops home as fast as anyone, probably more than most, and as I have repeatedly said, I am against an open-ended commitment,” (source). This was, of course, an outright falsehood, and recent polling on the issue shows that folks have caught on.
I'm frustrated by your insinuation that I have some sort of identicality-based purity test, since I explicitly identify with a large and powerful interest group (the "netroots") in the Democratic Party. I don't think it's an honest interpretation of what I've said.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )his vote invariably goes the other way.
He is the Senator from CT until the electorate replaces him, and I expect his Democratic colleagues realize that and try to make the best of it as and when they can.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )How many Democrats would not vote for Hillary if she won the nomination?
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent ).
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )One that is hard to answer. If I had to guess I would use something like the following numbers:
50% of the Democratic Base doesn't like her
35 - 45% will vote for her if she is the nominee
5 - 15% will vote third party or not vote for president
This is all just me pulling numbers out of my behind, so if anyone has better numbers I'd be glad to hear them. There are also some other factors at play:
How close the race is
--If her attributes change
If her positions evolve
If she becomes more genuine
Etc...
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I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered. My life is my own.
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| parent )Perhaps about the same percentage that would defect to another Nader candidacy this time around. Not Bush and not Republican wins in a landslide in the general.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )