...on a lighter note, the incumbent inserts his own name into the biographies of every president since Coolidge (Gerald Ford excluded, for some reason). No narcissism there, folks.
On a more serious note, you know it's campaign season when the story of the underwear-bomb-toting double agent is prematurely leaked. It initially came out that the provocateur was an al Qaeda agent and that the CIA had thwarted a terrorist bombing attack. Then it came out that said provocateur was a double agent who was working for the CIA. Both stories were fundamentally flawed. The double agent in question is a Saudi-born British national, and it was British intelligence, not CIA, who ran the operation. British officials are understandably angry that this story was leaked so soon, calling it "despicable".
Who leaked? The obvious answer is one or more officials in the Obama administration. The CIA does have its leakage problems but, at the same time, would not risk compromsing an operation still in progress. What's more, exposing the identity of the double agent is bad form because it would put at risk CIA's ability to recruit future agents. After a week of football-spiking on the anniversary of bin Laden's death and Obama's announcement that he supported the redefinition of marriage, the timing of the leak of this "international sting operation worthy of Hollywood" is more than curious. Barry wanted to do more chest-thumping, in my opinion. But the premature leaking of this operation has fallout.
But the emergence of this story, with a blow-by-blow account of operational detail, is the result of reckless, impetuous leaking that could cost lives and compromise operations in the future.
For a start, the story appears to have trickled out far too soon.
One US official has noted that “this operation could have gone on for some time … when it was cut off by a leak”. Even once the agent turned up in Saudi Arabia, it was clear that his intelligence was helping to target a spate of crucial drone strikes within Yemen – including one that killed AQAP’s head of external operations, a man responsible for the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000.
If the group learnt of their member’s defection from the media, who knows what countermeasures they took? How did that stymie further arrests or airstrikes? AQAP’s chief bomb-maker, Ibrahim Al-Asiri, might even have escaped as a result.
After all, the agent was reportedly evacuated from Yemen two weeks before the appointed date for his attack. He might have remained quietly operational for that entire period, contacting his colleagues and passing on their location. This leak appears to have frustrated a painstaking and risky operation, of the sort that cannot come around very often.
Second, it’s possible that the story shouldn’t have been leaked at all, at least not in such detail. Agents work with intelligence services because their anonymity – and therefore safety – is guaranteed. AQAP now knows the name and location of their traitor.
Even if he is under secure Saudi Arabian guard, or on a different continent entirely, what about his contacts in Yemen and his family elsewhere? Might there have been other recruits in place, whose contact with the defector now compromises their position?
Those agencies responsible for this operation – whether American, Saudi Arabian, British or all three – might even have chosen to stage the agent’s death in an air strike, or simply keep his status ambiguous for as long as possible. They no longer have that option, thanks to these leaks. Moreover, infiltrating future moles into terrorist groups will be all the more difficult.
Third, and finally, it’s one thing to leak your own organisation’s role – but it’s another thing entirely to implicate your foreign partners, and thereby jeopardise their future operations too.
Michael Walsh is right:
But here’s a rude question: Why do we even know about this?
Or, at least, why couldn't we have known about this a year from now, after all of the possible intelligence could've been extracted? Those rude questions sort of answer themselves. Congress should have known about this before the media, but that didn't happen in this case. What should have been commendable has turned crass and embarrassing. National security was sacrificed for political point-scoring.
UPDATE: You also know it's campaign season when the incumbent's campaign surreptitiously sends operatives to conduct opposition research on the adversary's donors. David Keene:
Frank VanderSloot and seven other major Romney supporters, few Americans had ever heard of the Idaho Falls businessman. But since then, a private investigator with Democratic ties has tried to get into his sealed divorce records, his children have been harassed, and he has lost customers. He hasn’t been deterred personally and says he may just increase his contribution to Mr. Obama’s challenger to show that he cannot be intimidated. What Mr. VanderSloot and most of those who have commented on his travails misses is that it is not about him.
These threats are aimed instead at the hundreds and perhaps thousands of potential Romney contributors who will slink away lest they, too, become targets of the Obama attack machine. What Mr. Obama’s political managers are doing by so viciously attacking those who would support the president’s opponent is precisely what former Obama Environmental Protection Agency official Al Armendariz bragged about doing when he compared his agency’s strategy to that pursued centuries ago by Rome’s legions:
“You make examples out of people. … And you hit them as hard as you can,” Armendariz told a town-hall meeting in 2010. “It was kind of like how the Romans used to, you know, conquer villages in the Mediterranean,” he told his audience. “They’d go into a little Turkish town somewhere, they’d find the first five guys they saw, and they’d crucify them. And then, you know, that town was really easy to manage for the next few years.”
Not only is it open season on public figures, it's open season on the people who support them with money. Oh, well, it's on then.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Yep, the White House blew it, first on the initial release of the story...
The initial story of the foiling of an underwear-bomb plot was broken by the Associated Press.
According to National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor, due to its sensitivity, the AP initially agreed to a White House request to delay publication of the story for several days.
But according to three government officials, a final deal on timing of publication fell apart over the AP's insistence that no U.S. official would respond to the story for one clear hour after its release.
When the administration rejected that demand as "untenable," two officials said, the AP said it was going public with the story.
...and then by Obama's top counter-terrorism advisor, who...
...held a small, private teleconference to brief former counter-terrorism advisers who have become frequent commentators on TV news shows.
According to five people familiar with the call, Brennan stressed that the plot was never a threat to the U.S. public or air safety because Washington had "inside control" over it.
Brennan's comment appears unintentionally to have helped lead to disclosure of the secret at the heart of a joint U.S.-British-Saudi undercover counter-terrorism operation.
A few minutes after Brennan's teleconference, on ABC's World News Tonight, Richard Clarke, former chief of counter-terrorism in the Clinton White House and a participant on the Brennan call, said the underwear bomb plot "never came close because they had insider information, insider control."
A few hours later, Clarke, who is a regular consultant to the network, concluded on ABC's Nightline that there was a Western spy or double-agent in on the plot: "The U.S. government is saying it never came close because they had insider information, insider control, which implies that they had somebody on the inside who wasn't going to let it happen."
So, AP would've delayed the story had the White House agreed to a modest condition, and the information about the double agent would not have come out sooner had John Brennan not spilled the beans in a conference call. Looking back on it, the leaks were less about political opportunism and more about the Obama administration's basic incompetence. Liberals can rest easy now.



My earlier comment got deleted.
(#280848)Please help. It's important that I tell Bird Dog how wrong he is.
M Aurelius was probably right.
When Bird Dog submits a diary
(#280875)accusing his political nemesis of perfidy. Dog bites man.
"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
BD "wrong", Jordan?
(#280887)C'mon, man: you know the rules: Bird Dog's diaries can never fail, they can only BE failed! In this case, apparently, by our blinkered liberal insistence on ignoring the obvious: as in:
Except that. on reading through the links BD has provided, that "obvious" fact isn't so obvious after all. Certainly, the details of this operation have been leaked, and probably too soon at that: and it's not much of a stretch to posit that the cause of anti-terrorism might have been better served by the identity existence of the double agent remaining unexposed for a while more. Maybe forever.
But the assumption that this exposure was somehow an exercise in "political point-scoring" by the Obama Administration, is just that: an assumption. And until this can somehow be proven, I'll fall back on the old saw about what they say about "assume"....
(but leave "me" out of it: I'll wait for more, solid and nonpartisan, information)
Political motives?
(#280888)This information has been handled by dozen of hands on three continents, so why do you automatically assume that it is leaked by a White House official for electoral gain? Is May really the best timing to boost Obama's electoral chances? This sort of speculation is both base and baseless.
"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs
11 dimensional chest
(#280890)The team of Teh Onc3 knew only the shaddiest of the shady WND types would pick up on the obviously true leakers, and then the election team of Teh Onc3 could use that to paint Willard Mittens Romnybot as the evil rich guy taking our jobs.
It's a great plan.
"I’m to believe that North Korea is so dangerously unhinged that they would attack without warning – yet so meek and easily cowed that they will sit quietly and not retaliate when we start bombing them."
Major Kong
11-dimensional "chest"??
(#280892)You followed Scott's directions to Jiggles??
They're imaginary, and they're spectacular nt
(#280900).
I blame it all on the Internet
Take your pick
(#280902)WH or CIA. The press confirmed that the leak was by Americans. Why would the CIA leak something like this? Especially while in the process of obtaining additional intelligence?
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
Good question.
(#280903)Why would the CIA or WH leak this? It doesn't fit any particular narrative, timing is awful to help Obama, no particular war news or policy changes coming up.... you're claiming the leak is politically motivated but you haven't established motive. What's the angle?
M Aurelius was probably right.
How is the timing for Obama awful?
(#280926)Afghanistan has been one big morass. The only minor bright spot was the signing of a security agreement with Karzai. Whoop de do. There was the anniversary of the bin Laden killing and, other than controversial drone strikes, there's been little to show progresswise on the WAMI. It's an election season and his campaign's bright shiny distractions aren't working. What better way to show a "win" than by leaking an "international sting operation worthy of Hollywood"? Seems obvious. Why would it not be so obvious to you lefties?
The CIA would be motivated to leak the information if they had issues with the president and could successfully cover tracks. Risky. I'm betting on the former.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
Other than the bin Laden anniversary,
(#280928)which isn't much to go on, the remainder of your argument is pure supposition. However and by whomever this story was leaked, the motives of the leaker(s) are anything but clear.
M Aurelius was probably right.
How do you know that only the WH and CIA were involved?
(#280904)There's no one else anywhere in the US government that would know about this?
I blame it all on the Internet
All you have to do is...
(#280925)...click on the links, and then actually read them.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
Actually reading the links...
(#280927)It would seem that the story was originally blown by unknown sources.
M Aurelius was probably right.
As Jordan said
(#280935)it just shows that the WH and CIA asked that the story be held back for a couple of days. It doesn't state that they were the source of the leaks. Your chain of assumptions is tenuous at best.
I blame it all on the Internet
Eh
(#281047)See my update. The initial source for the story was "U.S. officials", and the Obama administration mishandled the leaks. No one has yet provided a coherent rationale for the CIA initiating the leak. I stand by my opinion. It came from the White House. More from an Internet bully.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
FBI is investigating the underwear bomb leak.
(#281049)Does that sound like a deliberate administration leak to you? Thanks for your link to a moron speculating about the source, but I think eagerness to blame Obama has eclipsed common sense in this case, as in so many others.
M Aurelius was probably right.
If you think
(#280937)political reasons are the only possible answer, then you're not really thinking about it. It could be any number of reasons, from the careerist to the patriotic. Maybe someone thought the shot they had at the principals was as good as they could get... or there was some other upside to the timing. Maybe someone was trying to look good... or make others look bad. Who knows? But if it was a political leak, it truly was an absolute idiot who did it, if as you imply there was more gains to be made closer to the election.
"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs
You also know it's campaign season
(#280905)when Republicans aim at race and religion hard and early.
I blame it all on the Internet
And wow the refudiation comes fast...
(#280907)The Ricketts own the Chicago Cubs, and among other embarrassments, this revelation's sure to infuriate half of the sports fans in Obama's hometown. They're backpedaling. For now I'll presume Ricketts is true to his word and has no intention of trying to start a racist propaganda war this year...but here's the interesting thing. There are very well-funded, experienced PR firms out there that *do* intend to spend millions pumping that kind of hackery out on the airwaves.
They're just looking for financing.
M Aurelius was probably right.
Not only does he own the Cubs
(#280920)but he's in the middle of negotiations - with Rahm Emmanual - to get taxpayer funding for a stadium remodel. I would really love to be a fly on the wall at their next phone call.
I blame it all on the Internet