A man lives in his wife's tent: a house is a grave. -Tuareg proverb

Précis: as the first phase of the Mali conflict winds down, we see a partial recapitulation of other guerrilla wars in the Sahel. Expelled from Algeria, Ansar Dine has emerged as the major player, the hub around which MUJAO, AQIM and other Islamic groups have coalesced and merged into the local populations. As France withdraws troops, Algeria returns to geopolitical prominence in the region, a brute force (and largely counterproductive) bulwark against Islamism. America returns to its bad habits, having seemingly learned nothing from Afghanistan.

Does the USA have strategic interests in the Sahel? If so, how might we best serve those interests? Let Mali's fall from grace show what happens when the veneer of democracy is pasted onto rotten boards. The nations of the Sahel are going from bad to worse: their wretched poverty and malgovernance are of a piece, a vacuum into which jihaad has moved with a vengeance as it has moved into many other such vacuums.

Africa must save itself. Does America have a role to play in that salvation? I cannot say. This much I do know: the USA appears to be repeating previous mistakes. Therefore, I predict, with considerable anger and sadness, the tragedy of Afghanistan will be writ large in the Sahel, across many nations in an area larger than the United States.

This post is in large measure a summary of yesterday's discussion hosted by Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, with Khaled Elgindy, a fellow at the Saban Center, and Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at Brookings Doha. I am indebted to the Brookings Institution for much of what follows but my own opinions are injected along the way.

What sort of government is created with this constitution? The House of Representatives and a Senate called the Shura Council constitute a bicameral parliament to act as a check on the powers of the president. The president appoints the prime minister as a proxy. Therefore the president has overweening power, as it was in the evil days of Mubarak.

There is a judiciary but it has little power to challenge the president and is deeply conservative. With the advent of shari'a law as the basis for the constitution, Al Azhar University becomes the ulama, with the unprecedented and vaguely defined power to review legislation, as described in Article 4 of the new constitution.

This constitution is stillborn. For all its windy trash about political and partisan plurality, the rule of law, respect to human rights, guarantee of rights and freedoms, peaceful rotation of power, etc. --the Egyptian constitution hasn't even defined the electoral process. It exempts the military from any oversight. It has created a religious state for all intents and purposes.

This constitution won't last more than a few years. The current referendum isn't about constitution: it is a plebiscite on Mohamed Mursi.  America might not have a large role to play in all this but mostly we ought to hold true to democratic ideals and not doing our usual Deals with Devils We Know.

"And Samson called unto the LORD, and said, O Lord GOD, remember me, I pray thee, and strengthen me, I pray thee, only this once, O God, that I may be at once avenged of the Philistines for my two eyes.

The proverb in full is “Clouds are a promise made, rain is a promise kept.” It comes from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a country of many clouds and little rain. King Abdullah has dubbed Nayef bin Abdul Aziz the Crown Prince, over the objections of several members of the Allegiance Council. The House of Saud forestalled the Arab Spring KSA by carpet-bombing that unhappy country with cash and sinecures and a few token reforms. This essay will attempt to make a few guesses about the future of KSA, perhaps the USA's most important partner in that part of the world.

In your Washington Post editorial of September 30th, you observe “Democracy always favors dialogue over confrontation”, a wise and useful sentiment. Though you observe the terrorists have gained the most from the recent “verbal assaults some in the USA have made against Pakistan”, the present unhappiness of the Pakistani / American relationship requires some measure of frankness and yes, confrontation.

When I talk of sound-bite thinking, I'm not talking about the length of your comments. I'm talking about their simplicity and lack of nuance. You say for example "the key to winning this war on terrorism..." Terrorism is not an enemy, it is a tactic.

In response to BD's Should the Left get Jesus.   First, a bit of Augustine, from the City of God.

An Amish man and his seven year old son ride north on Stone Street in an open black carriage wagon behind a magnificent black Arabian. I raise my hand in greeting and shout out “A lovely horse, that!” The Amish man grins broadly and shakes the reins slightly.

Part carnival, part dress-up, part arts and crafts, with a generous dose of goofiness and good cheer, I give you some images from the Chippewa Valley Renaissance Faire.