Social security may be just fine


One of the most important goals of both Republicans and the financial services industries is the privatization of social security. To that end they continually predict that SS will be bankrupt by such and such a date. Those predictions are based on various assumptions one of which is life expectancies. Well it looks like those predictions might be wrong but not for the reasons normally provided by supporters of SS. For the first time life expectancy fell for a significant proportion of the US population. It sounds heartless to say it but if this trend continues SS will be just fine. A big part of the reason for the decline in life expectancy seems to be related to the obesity epidemic. The possibility of this happening was predicted a few years ago but now we seem to be getting confirmation that it is actually happening.
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The problem was never the SS Trust Fund (#91695)
by Punditus Maximus

It was the fact that we're going to move from a yearly surplus to a yearly deficit, and we'll have to finance this out of general revenues.

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It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

The gap in life expectancy is similar to the income gap (#91643)
by catchy

i.e. growing inequality + stagnation for many. Recently I've seen a study that placed the biggest dividing line amongst the educated vs. uneducated. This ties in since education level is correlated w. income level.

... from a recent CBO study on the issue:

Why Is the Gap Increasing Across
Socioeconomic Groups?

The growing differences in life expectancy in the United
States are well documented, but why they are increasing is
less well understood. Possible factors contributing to the
increase include the following:

  • Smoking One study estimates that differential trends
    in smoking-related diseases explain at least 20 percent
    of the increasing gap in life expectancy between
    groups with different levels of education.

  • Obesity. The nationwide increase in obesity began
    among the less educated and could now explain part
    of the widening socioeconomic gap in mortality
    rates.

  • Self-Management of Disease. Adherence to medical
    treatments and therapies is higher among the more
    educated.14 The role of self-management, particularly
    in the case of chronic diseases, may have increased
    over time.

  • Healthy Lifestyles and Use of Health Care. A balanced
    diet, exercise, and other healthy behaviors may be less
    prevalent among groups with low income and less
    education, and some measures suggest that the disparity
    is increasing over time. In addition, since the mid-
    1990s, the gap in health insurance coverage between
    low- and high-wage workers has been growing and has
    been accompanied by a widening gap in access to
    health care services as well.

Complicating any analysis of income, education, health,
and mortality is the fact that poor health itself has been
shown to be a cause of lower income, either because it
can inhibit educational attainment or because disabilities
can limit work opportunities. If those effects have
grown larger over time, that could help explain the
observed relationships between socioeconomic status
and mortality.

Interesting... (#91634)
by Wagster

But of course if obesity is good for SS, it's bad for Medicare. Diabetes is one of the more expensive diseases to treat.

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More Wagster!

Yeah, but heart disease is a money-saver. (#91678)
by Punditus Maximus

Sad but true.

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It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

There is a sense in which smokers subsidise a healthcare system (#91687)
by mmghosh

by paying insurance premiums, and not staying around to collect on policies. I've forgotten the exact cite, but together with paying tobacco taxes, it has been been calculated that smokers pay a significant amount more into healthcare in France, even after treatment for smoking related diseases has been taken out in the calculation.

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