Government Savings and Sovereign Funds
Some time ago we had a debate here (several actually) on whether governments can save. Some claimed this was not possible. Of course, this is nonsense. Government savings are simply a matter of definition, Anytime government revenues (taxes, fees, or anything else) are greater than expenses there will be government savings. This is part of the overall country savings which you read on the newspapers. If the savings are large enough and last for a sufficiently long time the country in question ends up with sizable assets.
Recently these government assets have grown dramatically across the world and have created what are called "sovereign wealth funds". The Economist reports:
The mission of China Development Bank (CDB), which was founded in 1994, is to support “the state's policies to implement disciplined development and build a harmonious society.” Barclays bank, which was founded in the early days of the Qing dynasty, exists to serve its customers and shareholders. The fortunes of this unlikely pair are now joined: the Chinese bank announced this week that it is taking a stake in Barclays—as is Temasek Holdings, part of the government of Singapore's investment arm. This will boost Barclays in its bid for ABN AMRO, a Dutch bank. It also marks a new adventurousness on the part of China's government. When it bought a $3 billion stake in Blackstone in May, the party men gained no control over what the private-equity partnership did with its money. This time CDB will have a seat on the board.Although CDB is a state-owned bank, most governments buy their foreign assets through state-run investment pools, known as sovereign-wealth funds. These funds are getting bigger and bolder. They have some $1.5-2.5 trillion to play with, according to America's Treasury, a sum expected to grow fast. Although sovereign funds began investing conservatively, the Barclays deal shows that they can provide an attractive source of funding for mergers and acquisitions. Some sovereign funds are also getting into the buy-out business. Delta Two, a fund backed by the government of Qatar, is currently bidding for Sainsbury's, a British supermarket. Yet despite making their presence felt in financial markets, little is known about these funds.
To understand them, it helps to think about where their money comes from. Many emerging markets, notably China, have built up vast reserves of foreign exchange. Such reserves are traditionally invested in liquid assets like Treasury bonds, which could be sold quickly if the central bank had to prop up the currency. But many countries have far more reserves than they need for this purpose. And China is in any case protected by capital controls. That leaves the government free to buy more exciting things where it might make a better return. Earlier this year China decided to set up a sovereign fund.
Most of the other funds get their money from oil exports. Such funds have been around for some time—Abu Dhabi, for example, started a fund in 1976—but have been multiplying recently. Russia intends to channel some of the money from its Oil Stabilisation Fund, which invests in safe, liquid assets, into a more adventurous sovereign-wealth fund. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nigeria and Angola have all either set up funds recently or are looking at doing so.
The article goes on to talk about concerns from some on the nature of these sovereign funds, especially since there is little information on how they invest. But the bigger point is that the change has been quite dramatic. A few years ago Brazil needed a $5 billion IMF loan to avoid defaulting. Today they have reserves of close to $150 billion. Even Argentina, which did default and had a huge crisis only a few years ago, has seen reserves soar.
There is an interesting debate to be had about what to do with government savings which are a transfer from the current generation to future ones. Given that future generations are likely to be much richer than we are countries need think what they do with the money. Here's an interesting post on just how much richer we are today.
I suspect that at some point in the future things will change and many countries will find they need to use those savings. In the mean time let's try and make sure we get the basic things right. Governments can, and do, save. Whether they should and what they should do with that money is an interesting, but separate, debate.
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