5 days to go. Here's my electoral map of the state of the Presidential race as of today:
I've allocated states that are more than +1 in favor of a candidate to that candidate. I realize that makes it extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the polls, but I'm trying to get an accurate take on what the status is today, not a week or two weeks from now. Also, any changes will tend to show up more clearly when displayed this way. Flipping a state from undecided to definite or vice versa will show up as a major change - which it should. It's also important to point out that these numbers come from averages of polls over a period of time, so they don't react as quickly to changes as individual polls.
Here are the states that are considered tossups in the RCP polling averages:
|Ohio (18)||O +2.3|
|Florida (29)||R +1.2|
|Virginia (13)||R +0.5|
|New Hampshire (4)||O +1.3|
|Wisconsin (10)||O +5.0|
|Michigan (16)||O +3.0|
|Pennsylvania (20)||O +4.6|
|North Carolina (15)||R +3.8|
|Iowa (6)||O +2.0|
|Colorado (9)||O +0.9|
|Nevada (6)||O +2.7|
Not many changes from ten days ago, the state classifications and poll numbers haven't moved much.
Not much of a change in the 30 day tracking graph:
Romney's +0.9 lead has turned into an Obama +0.1 lead, but once again looking at the graph it looks like the candidates are basically tied with some noise moving the numbers around within a 1 percentage point range. I should point out that the selection of polls that RCP chooses is showing less of an effect than other poll aggregators, which seem to show a clear 1 to 2 percentage point move towards Obama.
On Senate races, we were previously looking at 47 D, 44 R and 9 toss ups. Currently we're looking at 46 D, 43 R and 11 toss ups. Going by my rule for the electoral map (anything between +1 or -1 are true tossups) I come up with a count of 52 D, 45 R and 3 tossups. The polls are very close in some states, but they generally show the Dems with the lead and most likely to stay at 53 members in the upcoming Senate.
My prediction for the Senate:
Dems take: MA, CT, VA, OH, WI, MO, and MT
GOP takes IN, ND, NV and AZ
Senate winds up 53 Dem, 47 Rep. Unchanged from its current makeup.
Current predictions still show that Republicans will lose seats in the House, but not enough to lose control of the chamber. They also predict that Republicans will pick up several governor's seats.
UPDATED 11/2/12 -
RCP National Average has Obama 47.4 - Romney 47.3, O +0.1
My electoral map is 281 O, 235 R, 22 tossup, unchanged.