You know the drill, let's keep it simple:
1. Who wins the Presidential Election
2. The number of electoral votes they'll receive
3. (optional) you can list any or all states to fall in the R or D column if you choose
4. The composition of the Senate after the election, as in X R and Y D Senators
5. (optional) You can discuss individual races and the winners or losers thereof
6. The composition of the House after the election, as in X R and Y D Representatives.
7. (optional) Any other predictions you'd like to make
Winner will be judged on accuracy of items 1,2,4,and 6. In case of a tie, preference will be given to the first person to make the prediction. Optional items are for glory, not for scoring.
I'll start:
1. Obama wins
2. EV count is O 303 - R 235
3. Romney takes Florida and North Carolina, Obama takes all the other swing states
4. Senate is 53D - 47R
6. House is 203D - 232R
7. Marijuana legalization passes in WA and CO, fails in OR. Same sex marriage passes in WA
Go for it guys, let's se who has the best understanding of American politics. If mmghosh or nyoos junkey wins, we'll know how lame we are here in the states.
Where the heck is 5?
(#294626)It's all pi$$ing in the wind anyway. The world ends in six weeks.
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
Any big plans for the Mayan apocalypse? -nt-
(#294627).
M Aurelius was probably right.
We're thinking tropical
(#294628)Frozen daquiris, patio torches, whole roasted suckling pig if we can find one, otherwise maybe a cabrito. Some kind of pinata sliding down a string for the big countdown. Weather permitting, of course.
Good call, although the pinata should be a deified human
(#294630)and you should wear their flayed skin for the duration of the festival. At least, if you really want to go all out.
M Aurelius was probably right.
Oh he!! yeah. I wouldn't miss it for the world.
(#294640).
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
It's optional
(#294631)like reading before posting is optional.
I blame it all on the Internet
Hey, You Went Back and Cheated! I Liked There Being No Number 5
(#294634)...this added a certain existential flair to the post.
I was hoping that this was an intentional error...lol
Best Wishes, Traveller
There is still no number 5 nt
(#294636).
I blame it all on the Internet
It's optional for me, not thee
(#294639)You're the one who posted Option 5. You should have the basic human decency to offer up an example of your own.
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
Are you counting Virginia as a swing state?
(#294658)Because I just drove from downtown DC to downtown Charlotte, NC (which is a blue bastion, BTW), and back again, and I only saw one Obama bumper sticker. One. And it was from '08. No yard signs. This may come as no surprise south of Richmond, but 4 years ago DC and its Virginia suburbs were awash in them. This year: nada. Living in DC, I get all the Va TV ads, and I can also report that not a single local Va candidate mentions Obama-- most don't even mention party affiliation. This is particularly true of Kaine, whose "I've worked with presidents of both parties" ad lacks any mention of any affiliation at all to the point of foregoing party colors. This gives the peculiar impression that he's some kind of third-party candidate.
I wouldn't presume to predict this election after my woeful record in the past, but I get the distinct feeling that your guy is going to lose the popular vote. And if it's by more than 3%, as the Washington Post article on his defectors from '08 suggests by its math, then I doubt swing states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and NH, not to mention Colorado, will remain safely blue.
Whoo this makes me want to predict, Kierk
(#294666)I can do better than rely on some somewhat relevant anecdotal data in forming a prediction.
Re: -3%, the WPost's own national poll hasn't shown anything but a plus-or-minus 1% race for quite awhile.
I'd say at this point there are four big questions if you want to try and zero down on a precise prediction:
1. if the different state polls have a House effect,
2. if it's better to just take a straight aggregation of the state polls to guide your prediction to avoid your own bias.
3. if the national polls suggest a tighter race than the state polls
4. if Republican governors will influence tight races.
I think I'll just opt for a straight aggregation, partly b/c I'm too lazy for the work associated with 1, 3 & 4.
Unfortunately the state polls aren't leaning significantly either way on FL, so I'll hafta figure something out for that state -- maybe flip a coin or just guess that the Republican governor will cheat enough to push it to Romney.
Yet the polls show it pretty much tied for the last month
(#294681)Sorry, I think I'll take polling by the traditional methods as opposed to polling by driving around.
FYI, I live in Washington State, pretty darn blue, and it's common for local politicians to leave their party affiliation off their ads and signs.
I blame it all on the Internet
I don't have
(#294690)a good feeling feeling about Virginia for Obama this year. I live in Northern Virginia*, and support doesn't seem that strong here. Can't speak for Richmond, which kind of carried him last year. One good thing going for Obama: There's a Libertarian candidate who seems popular in the hinterlands.
I was surprised when Virginia went for him in 08. I'll be really surprised if he takes the state this year.
(A neighbor once said to me, "Son, there ain't no Northern Virginia. There may be a less Southern Virginia. But there ain't no Northern Virginia.)
They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist...
-- General John B. Sedgwick, 1864
Here goes
(#294661)Obama wins.
GOP retains the House.
The Dems retain a non-filibuster proof Senate.
Those are the only predictions that matter.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
No numbers? You can do better than that. nt
(#294682).
I blame it all on the Internet
A win is a win
(#294689)Whether it's 270 electoral votes or 370.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
Are you sure?
(#294703)I keep hearing that if a politician wins by a larger amount, he has a mandate to implement his agenda.
Votes must be like XP in RPGs. If Obama gets enough EVs he can level-up and can cast an anti-filibuster spell along with a spell of negation where all the House "yea" votes become "nays" and vice versa.
Seriously though, I agree with you. 270 gets you the job the same as 538. How much someone wins by is completely inconsequential.
The Constitution does not vest in Congress the authority to protect society from every bad act that might befall it. -- Clarence Thomas
Clinton claimed a mandate twice,
(#294728)and he didn't even have a majority of the popular vote.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
Which is exactly my point
(#294739)All that matters is that you win. I should have put my subject as "I agree with Bird Dog" as I like to do from time to time.
You can get what you want done with 270 EVs just as easy as 350+.
The Constitution does not vest in Congress the authority to protect society from every bad act that might befall it. -- Clarence Thomas
290-248
(#294672)1. Obama wins
2. Electoral vote 290-248 based on who wins popular vote in each state. In December it could be 290-247-1 since some Republican electors have threatened to defect.
3. Same as Hank except that VA goes to Romney.
4. Senate 51 Democrats, 2 independents that are effectively Democrats, and 47 Republicans
5. <redacted>
6. House 235 R - 200 D
7. Obama 64.4M votes, Romney 62.5M, Johnson 0.9M, others combined 0.5M.
Re: VA going to Romney
(#294679)The governor is an alum of Regent University, where that level of fanaticism likely correlates to a few hundred thousand cases of voter fraud.
The REAL winner?
(#294674)The New Black Panther Party. Also socialist facsio-communism. And anti-colonial attitudes and Chicago style politics.
¡Viva la Sharia!
Nothing about Kenya? You're slacking nt
(#294683).
I blame it all on the Internet
I blame america first
(#294787)/net
Yours sound pretty solid to me
(#294676)I'd say there's an outside chance Obama wins FL and/or NC, but he could alternatively lose VA and/or CO.
My biggest worry is that the GOP manages to suppress and exclude from counting enough votes, specifically in OH where the more brazen tactics being employed can be seen by anyone following the news. I honestly think the "unskewed polling" nonsense is mostly being floated from the right as convenient cover for an attempted manipulation (not necessarily through openly illegal means, sadly) of the outcome that would differ by several percent from consensus projections. The media, meanwhile, is pushing the "tossup" narrative to drive ratings, which provides additional cover. Hopefully the Obama ground game and poll monitoring will overcome this.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Hmm.
(#294692)Obama wins.
He gets 300 EV -- Romney pulls 238.
Senate - 54 D, 46 R
House - 209 D - 226 R
Back to lurking for another 4 years... :)
** Edit.. Having watched Romney's diatribe against the President's 'Revenge' comment, I think I've been too timid. It's gonna be 330EV for Obama, 208 for Romney. Somebody has to be a pie-eyed optimist....
If (when?) Mr Romney wins, going by the Benghazi kerfuffle
(#294693)some predictions on point no 7.
The US Ambassador to the UN to pilot the creation of an international law, via the Security Council, for every country to set up of a Rapid Response Team, to be airlifted into any country where their citizens are at risk from civil unrest, within 2 hours of receipt of emails to the respective Foreign Offices, or Facebook postings or even tweets.
Also - re-entry into Iraq (cue deteriorating security), 50,000 + Afghanistan surge (+ enhanced COIN) and Kahuta takeout.
Invasion of Iran - June 2013.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
No rapid reponse team
(#294695)no one but the US would be willing to have such a team within 2 hours of potential problems (that's a lot of people and a lot of bases). Even the US with bases damn near everywhere and half the defense spending on the planet doesn't have that.
As to your other points, well let's hope it doesn't come to that.
I blame it all on the Internet
Heh. I kinda doubt that.
(#294697)In fact, I suspect that the whole "Benghazi kerfluffle" will evaporate almost immediately if Romney wins.
It's over
(#294702)Take comfort in religion
I blame it all on the Internet
Repent!
(#294707)All he needs is a sandwich board.
+ Soapbox, Megaphone, Some Space Near a Student Union
(#294719)n/t
"I’m to believe that North Korea is so dangerously unhinged that they would attack without warning – yet so meek and easily cowed that they will sit quietly and not retaliate when we start bombing them."
Major Kong
But, but...
(#294720)Some good points, actually:
And it's not just right-wing sites. Wander off to the DailyKos and tell me you don't find people just like that.
I follow politics, out of habit if nothing else, but, though I came close to this unbalanced attitude when I was young, I soon realized how counterproductive it was. This election is important, but you need to live your life regardless, and that's a point worth making.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
But for EE only good points when you think you're going to lose
(#294775)I didn't see this kind of introspection during the primaries and campaign. Which makes me think it's a face saving maneuver more than anything else.
I blame it all on the Internet
If the unthinkable happens
(#294745)And Obama should actually lose, are we who disliked and distrusted him from the start (and his '08 primary campaign was every bit as arrogant, nihilistic, and narcissistic as his current one) allowed to indulge in two years of triumphalist crowing here?
who is the "him" and "his"???
(#294746)I'm guessing Romney.
"I’m to believe that North Korea is so dangerously unhinged that they would attack without warning – yet so meek and easily cowed that they will sit quietly and not retaliate when we start bombing them."
Major Kong
Yes!
(#294747)That's the price that we who have no knowledge should pay to you if you have it.
A tax for being dumb may make us improve.
Allowed to?
(#294750)I suggest it be required. And I'm not sure why it should be limited to 2 years.
Finally, it looks like you left out redistributionist, black liberationist
and teleprompter.
You won't be alone!
(#294752)M Aurelius was probably right.
I have been attempting to educate the children
(#294757)of these folks for the past 9 years at Ohio State University.
The hope is that they make a more positive contribution to a democratic society than their parents.
As someone who lives here, I doubt the interview clips were overly cherry picked. They don't strike me as radical outliers among the white Christian Republican lower and middle class base in the Midwest.
Very many lack the necessary critical reasoning skills and basic factual background with which to understand their political surroundings.
Don't Be Silly
(#294755)If Obama loses, *everybody knows* it will be due to the presumptively racist white male population and voter suppression, meaning that we will be expected to quietly sit by while Michael Moore's Grey Fifth Column lumbers by with their walkers and burns everything down. Get with the program!
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
There is no voter suppression going on out there. -nt-
(#294760).
M Aurelius was probably right.
You can say whatever you want
(#294776)whether people will listen or respond is another matter.
I blame it all on the Internet
Of course you are
(#294782)And by the way, he should be arrogant. Look at who his opponents are.
The Constitution does not vest in Congress the authority to protect society from every bad act that might befall it. -- Clarence Thomas
BTW, where's your prediction? nt
(#294786).
I blame it all on the Internet
Not only will Romney win...
(#294767)...he'll win big.
My two cents.
And I'm OK with that. If ever we needed a Mr. Fixit, it's now. And if ever there's been a Mr. Fixit, it's Mitt Romney. And if ever there's been a Mr. Can't-Fixit, it's Obama.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
I'll Let You Have That Prediction Slot
(#294769)I'm thinking it will be close--possibly to the point we won't have the final result for a few days. Hopefully not beyond that, as I shudder to think what the 2012 equivalent of the "Brooks Brothers Riot" be that I would, health permitting, be still reading angry liberal conspiracy theories about in 2032 during the epic presidential showdown between Perez Hilton and Honey Boo Boo's mother.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
Unlikely
(#294872)if it's as close as I think it will be in some states - like VA, FL and CO - we probably won't have the state results for several weeks. It may be that they don't make a difference in the EV count, but throw OH in and it does. That also goes for several close Senate races.
I blame it all on the Internet
Numbers please
(#294777)you'll never win by making general statements.
I blame it all on the Internet
What this country really needs is another unskilled liar. -nt-
(#294781).
M Aurelius was probably right.
Hank linked this wonderful article on "why we like bosses"
(#294867)https://www.nationalreview.com/nrd/articles/313504/boss
vint's comment reflects this perfectly.
Coming from a casteist society myself, I don't thing this view is necessarily wrong, either (sorry MA).
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Hm, we kind of ate all our sultans a few generations back.
(#294873)Having a lot of money makes it easy to find a mate or mate(s), but huge numbers of offspring are kind of a turnoff in a post-demographic shift society.
M Aurelius was probably right.
Wait a minute
(#294876)first you say that the US is the most advanced society in the world, then you say it's OK to use more primitive criteria (like they do in India, from reading between the lines) in selecting a political leader? This is not making sense to me. Unless you prefer less advanced societies, but that doesn't make sense to me from your comments here over the years. My head hurts.
I blame it all on the Internet
Um, its not OK.
(#294894)I'm coming around to the idea that people respect hierarchy (even in America) more than they respect egalitarianism.
I'm thinking maybe egalitarianism has run its course. It had a good innings from the Enlightenment onwards. Eventually though, hierarchy seems to have won out.
Of course, hierarchy has co-opted the appearances of egalitarianism, so it has the best of both worlds.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Ah
(#294898)you're complaining that people are no damn good. You are correct.
I blame it all on the Internet
Well...
(#295019)...in two days we see if the tribal chief beats the cardigan, or not.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Vin just beat me too it
(#294771)1. Romney wins
2. 289-249 (see 4 and 6)
4. If I'm right nobody will care
6. If I'm right nobody will care
Here's the logic. I'm going for payoff rather than probability. I think the odds are against this happening but if I'm right...well, I'm going to be talking mad smack. Well, mad smack at everyone except Vin. Disagree with just about any position I take and I'll respond with 'Well, maybe you ought to run that by Nate Silver. Oh, but you want to be right. Maybe you should just ask me.'
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
Careful
(#294774)Experience suggests that you will be mocked for your prediction no matter how clear you make it that you were choosing a niche in order to clearly win if you were right rather than as the most probable outcome.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
That's true
(#294778)because the point here is to get an actual opinion, not mere gamesmanship.
I blame it all on the Internet
The place has more opinions than you can shake a stick at
(#294851)and you want one more.
Obama wins. 289-249
Senate 51D, 2I, 47R
House 235R 200D
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
????
(#294852)so you make two predictions, one Romney wins, the other Obama wins? I admit that does cover all the bases.
I blame it all on the Internet
It's a Romney-style prediction.
(#294855)If Romney wins, Darth can gloat and chortle. If Obama wins, well technically he called it. This guy is smart. Too smart.
M Aurelius was probably right.
Color me a post-Benghazi Democrat then.
(#294859)My first was gamesmanship, low-probability high reward. My second is what I think will most likely happen.
And G*dd*mnit I just realized something. I voted for Casey for senate. This means that he now has a 97% chance of losing* and I didn't factor that in.
*Ever hear of anyone working for the Darth Cuddly endorsement? Now you know why.
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
You can call yourself whatever you want
(#294864)but I think it's only fair to the other people here that you make only one prediction. It kinds of defeats the purpose - and makes scoring impossible - to allow people multiple guesses.
... and now I'm really confused. You used to live in Louisiana, you now live in North Carolina, but you voted in the Pennsylvania senate race? Is this like Multiplicity, where you've run off a bunch of lower resolution copies of yourself? Because that would explain a lot.
I blame it all on the Internet
What the heck do you want from me?
(#294883)I gave you a prediction and you had issues with it. I gave you another and now you have issues with that. Stick with my first choice. It works for taking the SAT's right?
I am a resident of PA though I reside elsewhere. I honestly don't know the technical aspects of the laws except I know I'm within them. I've never voted in any other state, just PA absentee ballots.
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
?????
(#294893)I didn't have any issue with your first prediction, I was complaining about Scott's "gaming the situation" approach. Pick whoever you want, I don't care.
I blame it all on the Internet
Bronco Bama Wins!
(#294791)1. "It's like I told ya. Call me Bronco."
2) EV is 303-235.
3) Florida & NC go for Romney.
4) Senate 51D-3I-46R.
6) House 237R-198D
7) I have to change my sig line to read "M Aurelius was right."
M Aurelius was probably right.
3I?
(#294841)Where's that 3rd one coming from?
I was wondering that myself nt
(#294865).
I blame it all on the Internet
Oops, forgot Lieberman's retiring. *cough*
(#294869)Looks like CT is going Democratic, so put me as minus 1 I, plus one D.
M Aurelius was probably right.
I'll just go with the state polls
(#294817)303 EVs for Obama - he loses FL and NC to Romney.
Senate - 54D - 46R.
House - 202D, 233R.
CA tosses out the death penalty but won't support public education.
Hadn't Heard About That Ballot Initiative On The Death Penalty
(#294819)I suspect it will fail narrowly--they'd have better luck if they made it just for new cases: Richard Ramirez alone will probably be worth a few hundred thousand "no" votes in the tallies.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
As of yesterday,
(#294825)polling results were that support for repeal led by 7%.
Initiatives and referenda are hard to predict
(#294834)from what I've read the rule of thumb is that they should be over 55% to be likely to win. Lot's of people, if unsure, simply vote no.
I blame it all on the Internet
Oh sure.
(#294840)And a lot of people, myself included, make it a practice to vote straight "No" on all ballot initiatives as a matter of principle.
But I find it interesting that there's that much of a lead. Unprecedented here in CA, as far as I can tell.
Yeah, I'm surprised at the WA marijuana initiative
(#294848)They've been running ads with former FBI agents, prosecutors, etc. all in favor of it, and the opposition has been almost invisible. It's polling at 57% approve last time I checked.
I blame it all on the Internet
Despite the ridiculous
(#294868)Despite the ridiculous political atmosphere here, I'm impressed with the marijuana and marriage ballot items this year. If the TPers ever break off from the GOP, I could see moderate Republicans being competitive in the PNW - pro-business, pro-technology, pro-personal freedom. The TPers carry some extremist tax and social policies that don't work out here.
Since you're relatively new to the area
(#294874)I'd like to hear specifically what you consider ridiculous about the political atmosphere here. I have my own thoughts on that, but I'd like to hear yours.
I blame it all on the Internet
What I call ridiculous is the
(#294962)What I call ridiculous is the great difference between Seattle and Dallas/Houston/Austin.
The greens, anarchists, and other issue-based groups here are very active and loud. It seems they end up drowning out any kind of rational discussion by moderate voices. For example, in my part of town there was a meeting where the SPD was revealing their "drone" program. There is a reasonable argument for a police force to have drones, especially considering the cost of choppers and the number of shootings that happen south of town. There are also budgetary and privacy arguments against the drones. Well, a bunch of anarchists showed up and screamed for an hour preventing anyone from actually talking about the issues. It is nice to see passion in politics here compared to the general apathy in Dallas but this sort of activity just shuts down any dialog. Even Austin didn't have this amount of gridlock.
My other beef is with the self-satisfied Seattle liberal - open-minded and liberal about race and economics unless it means living next to black or poor people. The feelings of race work both ways - black people in Seattle don't trust whites or the police, moreso than in Dallas or Houston. Part of my experience is informed by living in South Seattle but I've lived in the "bad" parts of Dallas, Houston, and Austin too.
Might Just Be Frustration
(#294885)After all, after twenty-five years Richard Ramirez is still tainting oxygen. If they're not going to do it, they might as well make it official (with an [electoral recall] example being made of the first governor who lets one of the "life without parole" crowd out before their wrinkled @$$ assumes room temperature).
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
I had it exactly backwards on CA
(#295414)They kept the death penalty, but they mooched from the rightful owners of wealth to give away candy to the undeserving ... I mean, CA raised taxes on the wealthy to support pubic education
Obama 332EV; Mittens 206
(#294925)Obama 332EV
Mittens 206
Senate:
D:51
I: 2
R: 47
House:
D: 202
R:233
Best Wishes, Traveller
I forgot to include this
(#294931)the 2008 prediction diary.
I blame it all on the Internet
George Will's prediction
(#294990)Romney wins 317-121
#veryseriousperson
317-221
(#294994)If he's right, we'll know early why the Democrats (including Bubba) were desperately tearing around PA today.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
George Will is ignoring some crucial facts
(#294998)such as the fact that no candidate has had their horse lose at horse dancing in the Olympics and then gone on to win the Presidency.
Only if you ignore all the poll numbers
(#295006)you're not going to do that, are you?
I blame it all on the Internet
Non-Sequitur
(#295008)I posed a scenario where Will was right--if that was the case it would be obvious in the early returns from PA and OH. There's no need to preemptively defend the polls before they have been discredited (assuming they might be).
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
The Democrats could only be described as desperate
(#295009)if the polls are wrong and the Dems know the polls are wrong. I don't think either is likely, in fact they're both extremely unlikely.
I blame it all on the Internet
Or Their Internal Polls Show PA As Specifically A Problem
(#295013)PA would substitute neatly for OH, with 2 extra EV to spare. That would be enough to push the panic button, and there is specific history with Obama and PA that could come home to bite him.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
The PA polling is a little tighter than it had been
(#295016)The other side of the story is likely that polling in several swing states has been rising up to the level of PA's consistent Obama lead, such that he may as well defend his lead there as in OH or WI.
Going by the RCP averages
(#295017)here, there isn't a single poll that shows Romney ahead in the last two weeks. In fact Romney has never been ahead n the averages going back to June 15th. So like I said earlier, either the polls are all wrong and/or this time is different. Both are extremely unlikely.
I blame it all on the Internet
If Romney gets 317 EVs
(#295010)I'm calling foul play. That's simply not possible given the polls. They can't be that far off.
The Constitution does not vest in Congress the authority to protect society from every bad act that might befall it. -- Clarence Thomas
It Seems Rather Unlikely
(#295012)I wouldn't predict that far out even to stake a niche in the betting. But if it happened, it would require early wins in all the East Coast swing states, plus probably PA and OH. That pattern would be obvious early.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
Mine...
(#295018)Straight 538 forecast:
306 EVs for Obama
Senate - 53D - 45R - 2I
House - 204D, 231R
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Aggregate of poll-aggregating forecasters
(#295026)538 = 306
Princeton Election Consortium = 303
Votamatic.org = 332
Real Clear Politics = 290
Electionprojection.com = 290
Overall average = 304 EVs.
That means if Obama wins with 303, we won't know whether PEC should be taken as a better and more accurate aggregator, or if it's the average of the aggregators that is accurate.
You'd have to look at the state level aggregations
(#295029)to see which model did better. For example,
RCP has Ohio at O +2.8, 49.3 - 46.5
538 has Ohio at O +3.1, 51.0 - 47.9
etc.
compare their models to the actual state results and it should be pretty clear who's more accurate.
I blame it all on the Internet
Makes sense
(#295031)I'm curious how the PPP outfit will look after Tues.
Their last polls tonight had OH +5 and VA +4.
Some support for PPP
(#295037)and some doubt on the accuracy of Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing and ARG (Republican polling firms).
"... here’s a simple test. There have been hundreds of smaller organizations who have released fewer than a half-dozen polls each. Most have only released a single poll. We can’t reliably estimate the house effects for all of these firms individually. However, we can probably safely assume that in aggregate they aren’t all ideologically in sync – so that whatever biases they have will all cancel out when pooled together. We can then compare the overall error distribution of the smaller firms’ surveys to the error distributions of the larger firms’ surveys."
Results of the test:
That suggests it's the Republican outfits that may have systematically under-represented Obama's by 1.5% or so, while any D house effect looks to be less than 1%. In which case, the election should go slightly better for Obama than the 303 EVs suggested by a straight reading of the state poll aggregates.
It is an interesting and
(#295039)It is an interesting and clever choice for a control but also has problems.
True, but even without the controls
(#295040)it does look like another data point in favor of poll aggregation. if the number of Republican leaning and Dem leaning polls are roughly equal you should get a better idea of what the actual state of the race is than from any one poll.
I blame it all on the Internet
My (Crazily) Optimistic Prediction
(#295062)(Delurking)
Please continue to delurk
(#295124).
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
Yeah!
(#295132)Please, the regulars are all sick to death of each other but our main alternative is talking to relatives.
+1
(#295145)nt
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
So true. So painfully, painfully true. -nt-
(#295170).
M Aurelius was probably right.
Since all the cool kids are doing it
(#295063)Obama: 294
Romney: 244
Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R
Congress: No clue. I'll just do a mealy-mouthed Dems pick up seats, but not enough to regain control.
OK
(#295114)1. Romney
2. 271-267
3. Obama takes OH, PA, Iowa, and NV. Romney takes NH, WI, FL, NC, VA, & CO.
4. Senate goes 51 D+I, 49 R
6. House 230R
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
that's as plausible a ROmney win as there is out there
(#295116)I can believe FL, NC, and CO.
And I could believe one of: WI, NH or VA.
But it strikes me as improbable that Romney'd win all 3.
WI Is The Lynchpin
(#295118)I view VA as likely and NH as slightly better than even. WI will come down to whether the R voters there can respond like they did in the recall. Of course, if OH comes in for Romney he doesn't need either of those.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
Is this based on polling or gut?
(#295119)Because I'm looking at the state polls for WI and not seeing anything close. It appears that PA, MI and OH are all closer.
I blame it all on the Internet
The women are confusing you...
(#295144)...because they tended to vote against the recall not for ideological reasons, but because they didn't think it was fair.
This is also the class of voter who will "balance" one vote with another one.
WI is going with Obama. I'm more confident in that than Ohio even, since I expect little or no voter suppression (or we could call it "enhanced discouragement"), in Wisconsin, but plenty of it in Ohio.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Karl Rove's election map has Romney with 285 EVs
(#295123)Here it is, for posterity.
http://www.rove.com/election
They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist...
-- General John B. Sedgwick, 1864
Ok
(#295127)1. Obama
2. 272
3. Ohio, Virginia, Florida to Romney. All the other undecideds for Obama.
4. 52 dem, 48 R, counting I's as D's.
5. Ptang
6. 188 democrats, 247 republicans
7. Woo.
They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist...
-- General John B. Sedgwick, 1864
Ouch
(#295130)Pessimist!
I'm really hoping for better
(#295135)And if I'm right, I'll blame the supressin' o' the vote.
They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist...
-- General John B. Sedgwick, 1864
Jim Cramer's prediction
(#295143)Obama wins 404 electoral votes and the popular vote by 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#veryseriousperson
... I think Cramer managed to outstupid George Will's 317 prediction for Romney.
Maybe He Wants To Make Sure He Isn't Asked Next Time
(#295148)Sounding completely goofy is a reasonable strategy towards that end.
The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.
the probability that Jim Cramer is correct on Silver's model
(#295156)0.004%
And I miswrote: Cramer said 440, not 404
(#295157)#improbabilityinterference
I think Cramer's conducting an experiment.
(#295172)How many times can I be wildly, excitedly, spittle-fleckedly, pinwheel-armingly dead fricking wrong and still have a job?
M Aurelius was probably right.
Maximum troll? nt
(#295210).
I blame it all on the Internet
Important split predictions from the community
(#295155)of psychics:
Denise Seigel of Astrology and Psychic Predictions says it'll be so, so, so close. Romney will likely lead in the polls leading up to the day, but that Obama has the astrological advantage on election day. She also did Romney chart and thinks it's be nigh unto impossible for him to win.
...
Stephen Petullo of How is Your Love Life did a tarot card reading and find things look good for Romney. "The cards for Romney were hopeful and indicated that the wait is over. The cards for Obama indicated failure, loss, and feeling rejected."
The only difference between these guys and a George Will or Jim Cramer is that they don't throw out big numbers like 317 or 440.
Denise Seigel's prediction is already half wrong. -nt-
(#295169).
M Aurelius was probably right.
Early indications
(#295158)Whoever NH goes for, it will be good news but not that important.
If Virginia is called early, it will be a big deal for the winning candidate.
If Florida is called early, it will be a huge deal for the winning candidate.
If Obama wins Virginia and Florida early, it's all over.
If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, it will be a long night.
If Obama and Romney split Virginia and Florida (either way), it looks like an Obama win.
I blame it all on the Internet
Early indications point to high GOP turnout in OH
(#295159)indeed a better turnout than Democrats.
Which speaks to an enthusiasm not reflected in the state polls and a potentially long night.
Why Do You Say This?...nt
(#295160)Traveller
Are you talking about early voting?
(#295164)Because you posted this an hour before the polls opened in Ohio today.
LOL...That Was my Question, I'm Glad Someone Understood...nt
(#295175)Traveller
Yep, early voting
(#295177)read it last night on 538's twitter updates, but only the most recent are showing up on his page now.
Dylan calls the election for Obama
(#295176)"Don't believe the media. I think it's going to be a landslide."
- Bob Dylan
It looks like Trav nailed this one -nt
(#295337).
Trav and Bob Dylan
(#295411).
Conservative prediction pundit roundup - heckuva job
(#295418)PUNDIT OBAMA ROMNEY
Dick Morris 213 325
George Will 221 317
Michael Barone 223 315
Dean Chambers 227 311
Andrew Beyer 254 284
Karl Rove 259 279
Ben Domenech 260 278
Leslie Sanchez 263 275
Larry Kudlow 208 330
I think
(#295452)that the wingers were truly into the notion that groupthink and confidence would deliver their desired result. I was on some winger blogs last night and even after the polls had closed there was a zeal about keeping a positive attitude at all costs and disbelieve anything heard on TV, etc. The dice were rolled. How can a certain attitude on a blog make even the tiniest difference? Putting off disappointment for as long as possible?
Really weird. I guarantee the same group will have the same mentality 2 years from now. Even after last night.
As for your pundit round up, their job is not to be accurate but to spread propaganda. They're all totally wrong, but will still collect hefty paychecks and book deals on the wingnut circuit. I don't get it, but I guess that's the whole point.