Re Jay C's diary on Benny Morris' article on possible nuclear war in the Middle East (http://theforvm.org/diary/jay-c/benny-morris-goes-nuclear), it occurred to me that it might be interesting, during this Forvm election season, to take a flash poll on the issue. Obviously these polls are essentially meaningless, but I find futures market-style predictions are often surprisingly accurate, especially in sports, depending on the numbers participating. So here's the question: Which nation or entity will be next to attack another with a nuclear device?

Weight your answers from 18 to 1, in the order of greatest magnitude, with 18 being the likeliest. Any additions to the list are welcome.

A. The United States
B. Israel
C. A Muslim nation, such as Pakistan or Iran
D. A European nation other than Russia
E. Russia
F. Another former republic of the USSR, such as the Ukraine or Georgia
G. North Korea
H. South Korea
I. China
J. Taiwan
K. Japan
L. A 'nuke-ready' neutral nation, such as Sweden or Switzerland
M. India
N. A Latin American nation
O. A Muslim client political entity, such as Hamas or Hezbollah
P. A Latin American mafia-client political entity, such as FARC
Q. A nation or entity not on this list
R. None. It will never happen again.
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