Thinking, as a petit bourgeois parent is apt to do, that music instruction should be an integral part of a child's education, I gave early exposure to the piano to my first daughter, including some instruction at age four.
Alas, she did not take to it. Perhaps it was too early (though experts would argue that), but rather I think the piano was too much my thing, not hers. Still, there was a modest success in that the idea that she could actually play an instrument rather than merely listen to music did stick. So this year she got it into her head that she wanted a violin. This was unprompted, though I suspect I know where the idea came from (Master and Commander, if you want to know. A home favorite, shown abridged of the bloodier parts when she is present).
I wasn't crazy about the idea at first. My utilitarian side thought that if we had a piano, why not use that? But she insisted so I relented. I ended up getting a 1/4 size student violin and she is now taking lessons. To get to that point I did some Web research, and learned a lot of things I didn't know about this fascinating instrument. I won't bore you with that, except one thing. Violins of any quality become more expensive with time. People who find old ones often want to know how much they are worth, and so naturally there are forums about this kind of thing. In one of these, a person asked how much a 19th-century violin case could be worth. The expert answer was surprsing to me: not much, probably nothing unless it was very unusual. It didn't matter how great the violin in it had been, or even the lineage (origin and ownership chain).
Somehow, this bit of data stuck.
So yesterday I had this thought about politics. Politics is like the case, while ideology is the violin. We don't really care about the politics. Campaign minutae rarely make it into history books. Politics can be safely discarded over the long run, except for some unusual historical circumstance.
Looking at it this way I tried to look at the Democrats and Republicans. How do they compare? Well, it's pretty dissapointing if you think about it. Both spend far too much effort on the case. Worse, the Democrats don't even seem to have a working violin, while the GOP has replaced theirs with a smooth-running Tommy Gun, well concealed.
On the first count it is quite clear from this campaign that the strongest asset of the Democrats is Republican weakness. Hints of this have been available for some time in lefty sites; the constant wish for a GOP meltdown, the constant demand of a smooth, agressive (i.e. Republican) campaign machine. Rarely, however, does a truly coherent ideology emerge. The left seems to think the problem is that they are not as good at formulating their message. I think the problem is that we don't agree on the message. The violin is badly out of tune at the very least. We couldn't even agree on the war, and it goes down hill from there.
The Republicans do better. But their ideology is so crude, so unpresentable to the mushy middle, not to mention the left, that they keep it as well hidden as one of Al Capone's hit men would their own "instrument". The fact is that they would never get over 35% of the vote if they expressed their ideology with all the consequences made explicit. When they do, as was the attempt to clobber Social Security into oblivion, they fail. Whenever their environmental policies are directly exposed, they take refuge in lies and obsfucation (Cheney's secret energy task force wasn't secret for nothing). When they get away with installing creationism, voters end up rejecting it, even in Kansas. And on it goes.
The one popular aspect is the willingness to use force abroad, hence the Tommy gun analogy. But this can get tiring after a while as the repeating sound of gunfire, at first exciting, becomes in the end a curse. Chicago, after all, wasn't pacified by the Tommy Gun. The world won't be, either.
What we won't get out of either party is music to live by. Not in 2006, anyway. Not surprised, but dissapointed, at least at the Democrats, definitely. More so now that lady luck placed Foley in our lap, and the embarrasing spectacle of a Democratic Congress is a distinct possibility. Given this dismal choice, and JFTR, I will choose embarrasment over brutality. But I long for a decent tune.


Excellent Diary, should be on the front page
(#1317)Great kickoff to the election. Some thoughts
On the first count it is quite clear from this campaign that the strongest asset of the Democrats is Republican weakness.
Actually I think that is true for both. The strongest Republican message isn't a new idea, but the notion of Pelosi, Reid, Rangel etc. What does that tell ya?
The left seems to think the problem is that they are not as good at formulating their message. I think the problem is that we don't agree on the message. The violin is badly out of tune at the very least. We couldn't even agree on the war, and it goes down hill from there.
That's one of the consequences of having a laundry list approach to policy. If you are going to try to cater to every issue group's highest priority? You end up muddled because you will not set priorities for fear of alienating a constituency.
The Republicans do better. But their ideology is so crude, so unpresentable to the mushy middle, not to mention the left, that they keep it as well hidden as one of Al Capone's hit men.
A truly terrible metaphor as Frank Nitti was hardly "Hidden." The Republican professed ideology of lower tax cuts, strong defense and limited government (Hey, I chose the word professed for a reason) has the power of prioritization and simplicity. What it leaves out is as important as what it leaves in. It's strength is its clarity...now if they'd just act on it [sigh].
If the Dems had different leadership? I'd choose the non-prioritized laundry list over the failure to live up the the right priorities. The Republicans deserve the boot. But this group of Dems makes that price too high for me. They have done nothing to deserve to win. Conventional wisdom I know, I happen to think it is correct.
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
Um...
(#1321)A truly terrible metaphor as Frank Nitti was hardly "Hidden."
I didn't mean the hit man was hidden. I mean the gun in the violin case...
(I fixed this now)
Sure, the professed ideology is there, but just the headlines. The more detailed you get into their agenda, the harder it is to sell. Which is why they stick to the headlines and to mudslinging campaign tactics. Been that way since Nixon. Only Reagan was a substantial exception in that he better articulated an ideological base. But Reagan was from California; it was conservatism but not red state conservatism.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Expansion on MA's point.
(#1326)Both parties have "acceptable" and "unacceptable" ideological points from the POV of the middle. This is, frankly, to be expected. A centrist coalition that rejects the weirdness on both ends is, alas, an unstable beast. A more natural, "low energy" formation is two parties staked out on either side of the middle, pandering to outliers while selling the more acceptable points and technocratic decisions to the middle. Hence my oft repeated claim that all politicians are liars to a greater or lesser extent as a matter of need and job description. A pol or party that told the truth all the time would consign itself to permanent defeat, because there is no way to form a majority (or even a significant plurality) without fudging things so that some electors think you're acting in their interests when you're not quite doing so.
"Unfortunately the universe doesn't agree with me. We'll see which one of us is still standing when this is over." -- Eliezer Yudkowsky
Assumes a spectrum
(#1506)That assumes a one-dimensional spectrum, which I don't think is terrifically valid. Coalition-building is actually easier when there are two or three dimensions on issues, as it makes it easier to give people the things they need and not the things they want.
"In the very long run, we are all dead." -- John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes
Eh?
(#1517)"as it makes it easier to give people the things they need and not the things they want"
Putting aside the ridiculous idea that any pol could possibly determine what somebody needs as opposed to what they reveal they want, the wants are the only thing that influence votes. Nobody ever says "Thanks for not doing what I asked you to, Senator."
The multiple dimensions of "wants" I buy, and it should make the practice of coalition building easier, but in practice you can see the results. People prioritize, and the dimensions where there's a fair amount of agreement get zeroed-out. I don't reward a pol for doing what I think is so obvious as to be trivial ("Look, he's against murdering Girl Scouts! He kisses babies!") We're at the low-energy state.
"Unfortunately the universe doesn't agree with me. We'll see which one of us is still standing when this is over." -- Eliezer Yudkowsky
Additional eh?
(#1519)I think the assumption of a spectrum is valid. As it stands, I can see a high degree of correlation between all sorts of views people have. And the folks on the wings are more likely to show said correlation. Self-selection and peer-group pressure.
"Unfortunately the universe doesn't agree with me. We'll see which one of us is still standing when this is over." -- Eliezer Yudkowsky
True
(#1835)Mr. Guerrero,
It is quite interesting how so many apparently unrelated policy preferences are adopted as a package deal. My theory is like yours, these things to a great extent come as matter of tribal loyalty.
It makes triangulation very difficult.
Imagine being the only....
(#2260)....tony upper-East-sider to show up at a Manhattan cocktail party and announce that you don't favor, say, abortion rights or cuts in greenhouse gasses. Your points of agreement with your fellow partygoers will not be the topic of conversation. Likewise for flag-burning or being in favor of abortion rights at, say, a church-sponsored social outside of Oklahoma City.
"Unfortunately the universe doesn't agree with me. We'll see which one of us is still standing when this is over." -- Eliezer Yudkowsky
Hidden as an Al Capone Hitman
(#1328)You and I are seperated sometimes by a common language.
What I think you are still missing is the "details of their agenda." I really don't think they exist as priorities. Instead they are the result of the typical and despicable pork barrel politics.
You are bringing a laundry list mentality to a Ten Commandments style approach to politics. The former won't help you understand the latter.
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
This
(#1378)was a really nice piece of writing.
Many people would sooner die than think; In fact, they do so. - Bertrand Russell
M.
(#1421)Put this on the front page.
I was going to do it, but I'm not sure where you would like the page break.
“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
FYI
(#1529)I think there's a 600 word limit on the "teaser", unless WetherMan changed it.
I blame it all on the Internet
Agreed
(#1424)Front page it.
“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
You do it.
(#1430)I don't think it's that good. But feel free to boost my ego if you wish.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
MA, this is a good essay
(#1867)Going back, I continue to find superb little bits here and there, in addition to the primary thesis. This (for example) is very nicely phrased and entirely true:
I also love the phrase: the embarrasing spectacle of a Democratic Congress. True, but far better than the alternative.
Cheers!
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
I guess we Independents just have a hearing problem...
(#1605)...the main problem being that we hear (and listen) all too well.
I've encountered this meme more times than I care to remember, and it never fails to offend me. Sometimes I wonder if there is a single hardcore Democrat or Republican that doesn't think that Independents are 1.) Stupid, and 2.) "Mushy".
The fact of the matter is that the "mushy middle" is the fault line of American democracy, and the party that forgets that is the party that gets buried in the next election. Democrats and Republicans can fire up their bases all they want, but neither party has more than 35% of the voters in the bag. You want the truth? You can't handle the truth. Because the truth is that both parties have to compromise with the middle to win, and there is nothing that drives a wingnut crazier than being forced to take off the tinfoil every once in a while.
It's almost laughably easy to win the middle in this country. Trust me, if GWB and Clinton could both get elected twice, anybody with a basketball score I.Q. could do it. All it takes is a little understanding, a little compromise, and you've got a winner.
This statement, however, is definitely not a winner:
"The left seems to think the problem is that they are not as good at formulating their message. I think the problem is that we don't agree on the message. The violin is badly out of tune at the very least. We couldn't even agree on the war, and it goes down hill from there."
It doesn't even matter that this is coming from the left; I've heard equally asinine statements coming from the right. And here's my response to both sides:
Yeah, right. It's not the message itself, Mr. or Mrs. Hardcore Partisan. Obviously no sane, intelligent person would ever reject any part of your message. Obviously the millions of dollars worth of advertising, countless speeches, and voting records of top party leaders have failed to reveal what the message is to those voters in the middle who have a shoe size I.Q. Obviously the only reason that the other party gets their message across is because they are a bunch of clone troopers who march in step and say the same dumb things over and over.
Newsflash: Independents hear just fine, listen pretty well, and usually choose either 1.) the greatest good, or 2.) the lesser evil. That isn't "mushy" and it isn't "stupid". There is a reason why one of the most important and beneficial political acts of our Founding Fathers was called "The Great Compromise".
"In large states public education will always be mediocre, for the same reason that in large kitchens the cooking is usually bad."~Nietzsche
OK Soothsayer
(#1612)You have got to hang around. That was an exemplary rant!
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
Thanks.
(#1613)I was Matthew G. on Tacitus.org (and IRL). I decided to start fresh on this site.
"In large states public education will always be mediocre, for the same reason that in large kitchens the cooking is usually bad."~Nietzsche
Huh, Okay - it was still well said... :) NT
(#1619).
The K Codes explained HERE.
Well said. I get a lot of that tripe, moslty from the left but
(#1615)occasionally from the right and I generally just consider who the real sheep obviously is and let it go as not worthy of effort to respond.
They seem to have this foolish idea that if you're not aligned with a party (in addition to the things you cite), you have no principles. Seems to me given the record of both parties; the lack of principles tag is woefully incorrect...
Good job!
The K Codes explained HERE.
Thinking independents are fine...
(#1636)But the mushy middle exists. Sorry to pop your bubble, but they do. There are a lot of poorly informed people who are beyond being disengaged. They are pretty much clueless, and don't care to be clued in. This is their right, of course.
Yet, these people don't vote and are hence not an object of Republican deceit since they simply do not count.
So my reference was incorrect. I should have said independents or centrists or something like that. "Mushy middle" came from habit. And despite holding many views from the left side I am no hardcore partisan by any means. I'd hang over at dKos if I were. You are not listening that clearly if you think I am.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
So are thinking lefties and righties - they, too have a lot
(#1675)mush on their ends of the spectrum, a lot of poorly informed people -- and many of them, like some of those in center, are pretty clueless.
I think his hard core partisan was a generic jibe, not necessarily applying the tag to you. You aren't hard core; just quite firmly canted... :)
The K Codes explained HERE.
Well, yeah...
(#1681)...but they are cluelessly engaged.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
So is Congress. That's scary and that's my point... :)
(#1686)I know a bunch of independents who, like me, have volunteered to help in campaigns. One can be involved without supporrting either the Party of Crooks and Liars or the Part of Liars and Crooks -- or the Libertarians, either, for that matter.
Or Pat Buchanan. I ask you, where is Jesse Ventura when we need him?
The K Codes explained HERE.
Ventura,
(#1742)wasn't corrupt, but he made his share of mistakes. Inexperience isn't all it's made out to be.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Too true; witness Iraq... NT
(#1747).
The K Codes explained HERE.
Sorry to pop your bubble...
(#1807)...but uninformed and disengaged people can be found all along the political spectrum. It's human nature; no one can stay informed and engaged with everything and some people choose to leave politics to others.
As for the objects of Republicans' and Democrats' deceit, I believe those people are called "likely voters". =)
BTW, I meant "hardcore partisan" as a generic label, not a specific one for you. I respected the posting rules on the old site, and I'll try to do the same on this one. Ideas are fair game, commenters are not.
"In large states public education will always be mediocre, for the same reason that in large kitchens the cooking is usually bad."~Nietzsche
Congratulations and my sympathies!
(#1728)I think it is a good move. Music lessons are expensive, you have to fight to get the little darlings to practice and when they do, you have to listen to the results.
However, I think the effect on the brain of a young child of learning something abstract like reading music can only be good.
I too was forced to play an instrument from age 4. My grandfather was a violin maker in retirement, which is why violin was chosen over anything else. I hated every moment of it and never developed any real talent. However I did learn something about music and I also believe that the experience strengthened my ability in maths and related areas.
No, no...
(#1741)We never forced her to do anything. Which is why we dropped the piano lessons. The violin was her idea and I wasn't even very happy about it originally. We do prod her to practice, but that's just so that the money we spend on lessons doesn't go to waste (without practice music instruction is pointless). But if she wants out, that's fine too. Last thing I want is a daughter who hates music.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
heh!
(#1860)being forced to play an instrument might make you hate playing one but I doubt it would make you hate music.
In fact, years later I took up the guitar and forced the rest of the house to listen to my strangled attempts at heavy metal :)
Of course there's forcing and forcing. I was forced to do the violin and forced to go to school and forced to do a whole load of other things I didn't like, but not in a bad way.
In fact...
(#2030)Here is a picture of your humble correspondent having his musical mind expanded:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nasher/243495047/
Can you see the joy in my eyes?
:)
Third party
(#1754)required.
If for no other reason than to keep the other two honest.
"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
GOP's strongest asset?
(#1756)Fear. Dean Barnett:
Is anyone perfectly safe, ever? Hate to break it to you guys, but we are all going to die, eventually.
Why should we give the GOP unlimited political power in a Quixotic quest for "perfect safety" -- yet we can see all around us that "fear" is the essence of the GOP campaign message.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
The Democrat Party of course <nt>
(#1763)xxx
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
Actually, I agree
(#1793)Too many Democrats in Washington are comfortable playing the "Washington Generals" to the GOP "Globetrotters" -- It's a good gig with steady pay, no real conflict and even if not in power, the Democratic leadership types can still get top restaurant reservations.
Big picture, its all bad for America. Both parties.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
Perfectly correct, Bill
(#1808)The notion of "perfect safety" for ANY nation is pretty much a unattainable chimera, despite the bloviations of politicians looking to exploit public fears - the "portfolio of existential challenges" Dean Barnett blabbers about is a LOT thinner, imo, than the fearful or venal want to admit*. But as, usual, Glenn Greenwald has a more eloquent take on this than I can muster. Go read. Please.
*IMHO, it has just one item in it (nuclear terrorism) that is even remotely "existential" - but that is another discussion.
>smile<
(#1812)I agree with your agreement
Multiple H-bomb terrorism is existential. A few A-bombs? Nah.
Of course, making sure Russia secures loose nuclear material and not washing our hands of responsibility for North Korea would better prevent nuclear terror than what we are doing.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
Complete nonsense.
(#1841)"Existential" vs "non-existential" is pure foolishness, a cutoff of no meaning. Nor are the claims that I'm looking for "perfect safety" or willing to give the GOP unlimited power meaningful or reflective of reality. I've pointed out myself that you encounter non-zero risk every time you take a breath, eat, get in a car, get out of bed. The equation here is giving up a trivial amount of my freedom (and it is, and I don't much care about yours) in exchange for increased safety against a threat which would be personally "existential" and has a non-trivial likelihood in my estimation
"Unfortunately the universe doesn't agree with me. We'll see which one of us is still standing when this is over." -- Eliezer Yudkowsky
Since you don't care about my freedoms
(#1845)I don't care about your safety.
You sure this is a line you want to pursue?
I blame it all on the Internet
OT, Hey HankP, where is that link to the telemarketing
(#1850)response? I can't find it and we can't yet seach by poster. Little help?
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
I'm sorry
(#1851)I don't know what telemarketing response you're referring to.
I blame it all on the Internet
The link to the guy pretending to be a cop
(#1855)investigating a murder, wasn't that you? If not, sorry for the bother.
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
Sorry, forgot about that one
(#1856)Here you go - LINK
I blame it all on the Internet
Mahalo<nt>
(#1857)xxx
I'm trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't need to hear crap from a bunch of hippie freaks living in denial! Screw you guys, I'm going home!
Complete nonsense, I agree
(#1861)To remain consistent with jackson mead's kind comment that I probably know more (about pretty much everything) than 95% of our Congress-critters and some blogger (I forget who) who asserted that your average RedState poster knows more about the significance of the Shia/Sunni divide than your average State Department official, I am 100% willing to acknowledge that you (Bernard Guerrero) fully understand that perfect safety is an illusion.
The simple truth is: "We are all going to die!" So deal with it, already.
This, however, is complete nonsense:
= = =
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
I'm not at all sure Historians in 2057 will agree with you... NT
(#1873).
The K Codes explained HERE.
My sig is more likely to be agreed with
(#1874)/
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
I think the Historians and I can agree with that... :)
(#1875).
The K Codes explained HERE.
Heh. I see my agreement
(#1844)has already agreed with your agreement: and that Glenn Greenwald agrees as well!
I blame the comments system - it sucks, and it's ruining the site!
Fear Itself
(#1859)Some Republicans sell fear of "Islamo-fascism," some sell fear of the IRS, some sell fear of intrusive and overbearing government bureaucracy, etc., and all sell fear of the Democrats.
Some Democrats sell fear of "theocracy", some sell fear of global warming, some sell fear of the military-industrial complex, etc., and all sell fear of the dreaded Dubbyah.
It might possibly be worth arguing over which party is selling the more plausible fears. But to suggest that the political exploitation of fear is somehow specific to the GOP really is the lowest sort of blinkered partisan nonsense.
So why is this easily refuted trope so popular on the smart left? That's the mystery. Why, on this particular point, are they so utterly lacking in self-perception?
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
This reminds me...
(#1772)...of a typical electoral model in political science. It goes something like this: there is a continuum of political stances (say from 0 to 1), with the majority of people preferring some moderate stance (usually denoted with some greek letter) and the two candidates preferring their own partisan stances to the left and right of the moderate stance.
People will vote for whichever candidate offers the stance closest to their own. So, with perfect information (that is, everybody accurately knows everything), whichever candidate offers the stance closest to the moderate stance ought to win. However, once one factors in voter ignorance it is not only possible for a more partisan stance to win, but actually it becomes advantageous to hold one, as you are able to both fool the moderate voters and secure your own core constituency.
Anyway, that's a really quick and dirty summary, but hopefully it's somewhat intuitive. There's a surprising amount of math to back all that up. In fitting it with your analogy, one could argue that the case is (I suppose) the continuum, the violin would be the preferred (moderate) stance, and the lousy/deceptive offerings of the parties exist because, given the way the game is currently structured, they have a greater incentive to behave in such a manner. If we want to change their payoffs to encourage them to actually tote decent violins, we're going to have to work to insure that people are actually attentive and properly informed to political issues. Ultimately, it comes down to an information problem (and maybe a coordination problem as well, but that's related).
Because not all academics live in ivory towers.
This reminds me...
(#1863)...of why I hold political "science" in such contempt.
The idea that degrees of partisanship can be measured with any sort of mathematical exactitude, and the idea that the lack of "perfect information" has anything much to do with the failure of voters to vote the way their betters think they (rationally) ought to...
Feh.
Oh, and the idea that the "amount of math to back all that up" is in any way "surprising" is charming only in its naivete.
Of course there's math. There's always math. It's what all social "scientists" always use to paper over their conceptual confusions.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
Heh. Math, the myth that will not die... :) NT
(#1871).
The K Codes explained HERE.
"Math - the myth that will not die"
(#1876)...I will be using that phrase, soon and repeatedly, without attribution.
Fair warning.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
Funny
(#1877)I was think of changing my sig to:
"You're an idiot. I have the math to prove it, and it's flawless"
.
“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
How about economics?
(#1983)It's built on assumptions just like his example was, distinctions between rational actors with full or partial information are inportant to both. Polysci has a much smaller set of statistics to test them on (biggest problem with political science, guess how many times Ken has read someone's case studies for their "why wars start" theory that tried to apply it to WWI). But it's a reasonable assertion that the more ignorant the middle is, the worse choices they'll make. Our middle is pretty good actually IMO although they whiffed picking Bush over Gore, I can't blame them for 68 and 72, the elections that demolished the old left, and you shouldn't blame them for the well-deserved whipping your party's gonna take in a few weeks.
Not once. Wars are all different. People are all different.
(#1988)History offer broad parallels and not fiorm guidelines.
Thus there's no "science," merely a pseudoscience.
The middle does the right thing more often than not. Bush is no prize; the alternatives both elections were far worse.
The K Codes explained HERE.
Agree on the pseudoscience
(#2070)Because of the lack of statistics. Economics is a pseudo science that has reached a higher level through consistent testing against real world statistics, political science is an attempt at the same but the set of statistics is so small, and there are always so many mitigating factors that it's not very useful IMO. Disagree on Bush in 2000 with what we knew then, I'll admit 2004 is arguable.
You've never read someone's theory and how they eloquently tried to apply it to WWI? My int'l relations classes in college were chock full of those, every genius with a brilliant idea had to show how eloquently his incentive model explained the outbreak of WWI. After the 2nd or third book I learned that I could just read the intro and conclusion and skip the case studies since I knew the history and could guess how they applied it.
Science by any other name
(#2365)The social sciences *are* scientific in terms of method, and that is what largely counts (the term "pseudoscience" implies that the method itself is not scientific). The issue is the coherence of the *subject matter*, not the approach, and any social scientist will acknowledge the great difficulty in studying human behavior. However, as I have said time and time again, we should not shy away from a problem simply because it is hard.
Regarding dionysus's claim of the difference in statistics in economics and political science, it is true that economics developed econometrics (hence the name), but these days folks across the social sciences tend to work interdisciplinarily and have pretty good methodological chops regardless of their specialty (though I admit the average economist may still be somewhat more mathematically predisposed than the average political scientist, but you will find extremely mathematically inclined people in both fields).
If you are talking about the availability and depth/breadth of the data itself, then actually I'd have to disagree. There's a wealth of political science datasets that have a great number of cases and variables, rivaling any economics study I would imagine (a dataset I worked with for my senior thesis had 700,000 cases, all the directed country-dyad years from 1945-present).
I agree that, especially in the "traditional" literature, people in political science are apt to fall back on the same case studies again and again. However, I think if you just follow what's been published in, say, the last 10 years, you'll notice a marked change from that, as political scientists strive to provide rigorous theoretical models with testable implications. The discipline still has a long way to go (comparatively it is among the youngest of academic disciplines, with many departments only going back 50 years or so), but it is definitely headed in the right direction, and is probably a good bit further than when you last read from it.
And back to Ken White: in this specific model, the implication is not that the middle does the "right" or "wrong" thing but rather that it is easily duped, and I would say that, even if you do feel Bush is a superior candidate to Gore or whoever else, you have to admit that his campaign rhetoric and his behavior in office don't exactly match up to each other and that his election most definitely does constitute at least a partial "duping" of the American public.
Because not all academics live in ivory towers.
Is science - I don't question that. What I do question is
(#2417)the drawing of exremely hard conclusions from amorphous data. That is not to discount the effort nor is it to deny that there are many improvements in knowledge and processes in recent years. It simply means that I, for one, remain somewhat skeptical in any prescription for human change as a result of such studies when the conclusion(s) of said studies are regarded as immutable. There are not a lot of holy grails out there. Not even many grails...
Perhaps no one said that sceptimism is a scientist's best friend; someone should have.
It has been my observation that bias is an extremely hard human foible to overcome. I've seen many who could be very objective but when the time came to press for a decision tended to fall back on the innate to resolve any lingering questions. I know no one, myself included, who can really avoid that. That IMO is no reason to discard much of anything; it is and should be a reason to question everything.
Do not agree that the middle is easily duped, certainly no more so than are the poles. I would also never call George W. Bush much of a superior anything, much less a superior Prsedential candidate; he just happened to be, IMO, very slightly less bad than either alternative.
He's been a mediocre President just like his two predecessors and likely, as seen now, successors. We've had three fairly good ones and three pretty bad plus six in the middle in the last 75 years. Where Bush will fit in in the pool of mediocrity reamins to be seen, too early to tell on he, his dad or Bill.
As for "duping," I've lived in this country under twelve Presidents. Every single one of them has "lied to the American people" and each also failed in office to live up to their campaign rhetoric -- and to what most who voted for them expected. Based on my rather extensive reading of history, that seems to be a worldwide pattern and it certainly has been true of almost every American President to date -- and I see no reason to doubt that proclivity will continue for the forseeable future...
Yet, we're still here and still thriving, more or less.
The K Codes explained HERE.
All I had to read of your comment...
(#2425)"What I do question is the drawing of exremely hard conclusions from amorphous data."
Well, nobody is doing that. So, if that's honestly all you're questioning, then I think we're pretty much settled. The Bush issue is pretty much irrelevant, you're allowed to disagree on the conclusion, you just have to acknowledge that all it is is a *model* and an *argument*, not the word of God or something.
(And you'd find that your skepticism comment is already quite well ingrained in the scientific method itself, as well as the behavior of the vast majority of scientists, social and otherwise.)
[I guess I did kind of read the rest of your comment anyway, but the point is that if you are only taking issue with the "drawing of extremely hard conclusions", you'll find that, well, social scientists generally don't do that. They don't claim to have that sort of leverage because they understand quite well the limitations of their knowledge and techniques. Inability to draw hard conclusions though does not mean you have a total inability to say anything about the topic, you just have to be cautious and qualify your statements properly and be open to change.]
Because not all academics live in ivory towers.
I do not disagree with anything you said above. I'll also
(#2489)admit to hyperbole; remove "extremely" and add "possibly" in front of amorphous. :)
You're pretty good about questioning but I'm sure you realize some of your fellows are less prone to do so and seem more inclined to make sweeping statements. Those are the folks at whom I and others aim. I can, fror example, think of two neighbors, both Professors, one of Political Science and the other of Psychology -- who are firmly convinced theirs are hard, excact sciences -- and they're teaching others...
I was aware that skepticism is a quality of good scientists of any stripe. I made that comment to obliquely encourage that it be often stated and to emphasize that it is important.
Bush may be irrelevant, the issue of duping the public is arguably far from being so. That is almost a political imperative and near certainty. You can discount its importance but it's not going away. My point was that all the others have done the same thing you criticized him for doing -- that and "get used to it, the next one will also..."
I think your last sentence is important. I agree with the premise of the but am unsure it is practiced by many, particularly the final caveat.
The K Codes explained HERE.
If there are scientists...
(#3068)...of any stripe who poorly practice the scientific method, then deal with them as they arise. To blankly assert that there are at least some folks who do this and therefore we should treat all science with latex gloves is, ironically, to fall to the very same fallacy you are accusing (some) scientists of (that is, overly strong generalizations).
But yes, I suppose we are generally of agreement. And on that note, I ran into yet another interesting excerpt from my academic readings that made me think of you (yes, I really do write "Ken White" in my notes when it's a philosophy-of-social-sciences issue):
"Generalizations that are sound resemble a large-scale map of an extended terrain, such as an airplane pilot might use in crossing a continent. Such maps are essential for certain purposes just as more detailed maps are necessary for others. No one seeking a preliminary orientation to the terrain wants to know the location of every house and footpath. Stil, if ones explores on foot...there can be long periods when the investigator feels lost in an underbrush of facts inhabited by specialists engaged in savage disputes about whether the underbrush is a pine forest or a tropical jungle. He is unlikely to emerge from such encounters without scratches and bruises. And if he draws a map of the area he has visited, one of the natives may well accuse him of omitting his own house and clearing, a sad event if the researcher has actually found much sustenance and refreshment there. The outcry is likely to be all the sharper if at the end of the journey the explorer tries to set down in very brief form for those who may come later the most striking things he has seen."
-Barrington Moore, Jr.
"Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy"
(Taken from the foreword of "Commerce and Coalitions" by Ronald Rogowski)
Because not all academics live in ivory towers.
I'm not at all sure I said or implied that all science should
(#3121)be regarded skeptically. I thought I said ""...I'm sure you realize some of your fellows are less prone to do so and seem more inclined to make sweeping statements. Those are the folks at whom I and others aim."" I followed that with this; ""I was aware that skepticism is a quality of good scientists of any stripe. I made that comment to obliquely encourage that it be often stated and to emphasize that it is important."" (emphasis added / kw)
I agree with your quote but would point out that if one can read a map reasonably well and one knows general terrain characteristics even a bit, one can generally avoid scratches and bruises.
Further, I think one should clearly state up front ALL the limitations and potential errors of the study, effort or map and if it is certain to be questioned for any reason, political or otherwise, one should positively address those concerns before getting too finite or definite (even by inference or implication). To me, that's just common sense. To some in the scientific community it is not so seen; I personally think that's usually an ego problem. :)
Les Roberts stating in 2004 that he had deliberately relased the earlier report in an effort affect that election does not help his credibility; to again release a newer report just prior to this election doesn't seem to be conducive to the eradication of suspicion -- from a scientific standpoint, in fact, I'd say it was really sort of dumb.
Burnham's interview of which I've read transcripts don't fill me with much confidence and using the Lancet as venue given the known proclivities of Richard Horton -- not to mention the release of the study as a pre-publication effort by the Lancet is another question raising item...
There are questions. Here are a couple, I'm sure there'll be more. LINK, LINK.
I don't take either of those at face value, either; color me the quintessant cynical skeptic :)
The K Codes explained HERE.
Heh fair enough
(#3126)You didn't say that explicitly, just my (perhaps doubly or triply ironic) characterization of how you often react to issues of social science (and I would say that there have been at least some other situations where you did not so carefully qualify your criticism of the social sciences, in this thread itself even).
I'm not going to go back to the report as that simply is not the issue I was discussing: I have already said all I have to say on it.
As far as the map analogy goes, the point is that it's always a problem of level: either you have a big conceptual picture or a specific situational one. In either case, you're missing some information, and it is essentially impossible to really conceive of both pictures at the same time. The best we can do is be clear about our approach and acknowledge its limitations, as we have both now repeatedly said, and to chime in one more time, I really do believe most scientists (social and otherwise) do this. Read a few journal articles and you'll see...
Because not all academics live in ivory towers.
Penalty of being wordy and in a hurry - and being old,
(#3148)if I don't say most of it at the time, I'm subject to forget it and can't come back later. :)
That causes shorthand and hyperbole; generally if I'm asked anywhere near reasonably politely, I'll clarify. A snark, OTOH, is likely to get a return volley. Childish -- but that's the way it is.
Do not misconstrue the above comment (#3121) as my believing that any of the Social Sciences can reliably predict (or receive) human responses or give more than broad outlines for policy determination; I still think people are too varied for much precision in most of the fields. Improvements have been and will be made but I think we're a long way from definition. Those science all have immense value, I do not question that -- I'm merely saying they don't have any silver bullets at this time.
No question on the map analogy, I agreed and agree with it. My point on reading a map decently and some knowledge of terrain characteristics was that peripheral knowledge or expertise can have a benficial effect on any effort.
No intent to redredge the study, it was just fresh in both our minds and thus an easy example of the facts that politiciziation (or possible politicization or just a perception thereof) of ANY science is, IMO, a very bad idea.
I provided the two links only to emphasize the well known point that every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Been my observation that a rush to judgement does far more damage than waiting until one has a few pros and cons to weigh...
The K Codes explained HERE.
Ummm
(#2308)To you, and the other people criticizing the premises of the social sciences yet again:
It's a *model*, meant to facilitate conceiving a problem but not to account for every possible nuance (which would be impossible) - any decent political scientist will be the first to recognize its limitations regarding actually mapping it to reality, and actually the bulk of many papers and books address these concerns. I didn't get into that here because I wanted to just make a brief comment to point out something I thought relevant.
No naivete here, and the math is actually quite interesting if you want to follow it. But again, it is a model, and those who employ it freely acknowledge that even the math does not necessarily make the model externally valid (that is generalizable), but only internally so.
Please, to you and the other people pursuing this argument, stop prejudging things. Try reading an academic article and you'll see that there are no political scientists wandering around saying "We have the formula to answer every social problem! PEOPLE ARE NUMBERS!". We're just trying to apply the best tools we can to what we acknowledge are very difficult problems. The difficulty, however, doesn't make it not worth trying.
PS - The way folks try to argue in favor of models having relevance is generally by anecdotally relating them to situations, such as this one. And I do happen to think that the continuum-of-stances model is a decent way of understanding this "violin case" perspective (which by the way is a model of sorts as well, just without the numbers). Rather than assume I'm declaring it to be an infallible model of infinite explanatory power (which I'm not), try responding to that *specific* assertion.
Because not all academics live in ivory towers.
As for "Master & Commander"
(#1864)Who here had read the Patrick O'Brien series before the Russell Crowe movie? I had been concerned that the movie would butcher the books however the movie actually was rather good, in my opinion.
Back in the day (5,6 or 7 years ago) I read the O'Brien novels incessantly until the series was complete.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
I read about a dozen
(#1865)Mr. White,
Until I tired of them.
Violin lessons
(#1866)My daughter plays violin.
With the agreement of her mother she recently "fired" a terrific Suzuki instructor (personality clash) in favor of a young women not long out of college. But she is sticking with it and that is all that matters, for now.
I have a cousin who earned exceptional grades and a Masters in Fine Arts playing the violin and now makes more money waiting tables and earning a pittance playing professionally.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
Being
(#1872)"difficult"! I see she takes after her father... :)
I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
The Violin...
(#1882)...is a museum piece, now.
Playing the violin today is like speaking Latin. A dead tradition. For most, no more than an affectation of social superiority.
And yet, at the same time, a tentative opening into a far greater and deeper world.
Which is not say that it will put food on the table.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
Yes, I largely agree
(#1896)Yet in the proper hands, the violin has potential for emotional expression that exceeds nearly any other musical instrument I am aware of.
And I have never, ever bowed a single note.
= = =
That said, no parent has truly lived until they have heard their child practice "Twinkle, twinkle, little star" with a decidedly Jewish interpretation mostly due to an inability to not play flat.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
Come on! You're crazy
(#1909)Man! The castinette rocks compared to the violin.
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
The Castinette Is
(#1911)beautiful, yes, but the triangle brings me to tears.
That's how it is on this bitch of an earth.
The beauty of the castanuelas
(#1914)Mr. Inigo,
In my experience, is determined entirely by beauty of the senorita.
Point
(#1916)very well taken.
That's how it is on this bitch of an earth.
"The castinette?"
(#1913)Are you thinking of those things that Carmen was wont to click?
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
Yeah...otherwise known as...
(#1920)...those things the fattest belly dancer is clicking.
In the medical community, death is known as Chuck Norris Syndrome.
Ah, I see.
(#1923)Castinettes: the favorite instrument of French flamenco belly-dancers everywhere.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
Actually...
(#1936)A tradition dies when the last practicioner is dead. We are pretty far from that with the violin. Ask the Chinese, who manufacture them by the thousands.
It isn't very important that they are not a source of income for all but the very best players. This was always so. Mozart died broke, and he did much more than merely play the violin.
As for me, I turns out I discovered that the instrument provides a very different feedback than the piano. When I tried it, the cat scratches I achieved sounded horrible. But then I figured out the right pressure and speed for bowing, and I must say it is worth a try if you have any affinity for music at all. It's addictive.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Also, not conventional classical
(#1940)but most definitely not dead.
My daughter's teacher recommends this group to help interest young people who might otherwise think the violin is only for geezers. I've seen their shows and they are pretty good.
The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
Sort of like...
(#1963)...performing hip-hop in Latin.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
By that standard...
(#1959)...Latin is a living language.
I hope that, in due course, the Chinese will start writing violin sonatas, concertos etc. that reopen the repertoire. I suppose anything's possible. Time will tell.
Incidentally - Mozart was quite commercially successful. He (and his wife) just couldn't manage money to save their lives.
I fear there is little hope for me as a violinist. I'm a 'cellist, and it's a hard switch to make, even were I inclined to try.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
No...
(#1981)Nobody speaks latin natively. In languages this is taken to mean that the language is dead. I would argue the point, since the Catholic Church has used Latin continuously since Roman times.
The violin is played to make music, as is the fiddle, which is the same instrument. It was always used for this purpose. Nobody was ever born "speaking violin" (except maybe Mozart). So long as people enjoy playing, listening to, and making violins, it is not dead. In fact I would say more people on the planet play the violin today that at any previous moment in history.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Well...
(#2439)...I suppose there are various senses in which a language may be said to be "dead" or "alive." Most interesting to me, the history of *literature* written in Latin is (long) over. Doesn't mean you can't still write something in Latin. But, even if it's really good, it won't be a new chapter in an ongoing story. It'll just be a curiosity - a sort of footnote to the *real* story.
Same goes for the violin, I'm afraid. The *literature* for the violin ended in 1968 (38 years ago and counting...) with the remarkable Sonata that Shostakovich wrote for David Oistrakh. Nothing written since then shows the slightest sign of entering the permanent repertoire. I think, for all sorts of reasons, that it's quite unlikely anything else ever will.
Counterexamples devoutly wished for...
China has, as you note, been producing some fine fiddlers lately. They rarely venture beyond the Bartok 2nd Concerto (1938). More's the pity.
.Divine Spinoza, forgive me. I have become a fool.
Now there is a political strategy
(#1947)outing gay Republicans. It wasn't just happen chance.
But politics is hard ball. If you find the current tune harsh, you ought to go back and read about the presidential elections in 1800 and 1860. Now those elections will make you blush.
As for Republican ideology, it is very straight forward.
1. Judges on the bench who do not legislate.
2. A tax code which understands that it is the people's money.
3. National security should be the dominate theme in both our military and foreign policy.
““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H
'Happen Chance'
(#1949)Cool.
“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
I thought...
(#1960)"dominate theme" was also good.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
The one
(#2002)that caused me to stumble was hard ball.
Triggered a repressed memory :-)
That's not an ideology.
(#1984)That's a laundry list of feel-good statements, which anyone can make.
The question is how.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
The question is how, well simply
(#1985)1. Appoint conservative judges to the bench.
2. Have the government grow at a slower rate than the economy (you will have to make exceptions during an armed conflict). The general concept of subordination isn't a bad place to start.
3. Understand that in this effort the other side isn't going to play by your rules. Thus, don't allow third parties to dictate your rules.
““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H
Again...
(#1987)1. Doesn't actually say anything, except "put us in power".
2. Is a formula that taken literally for a long enough period of time would see government dwindle to nothingness. If people understand that they wouldn't vote Republican.
3. Again, feel-goodism passing for policy, not to mention a binary view of the world apt only for Marvel Comics.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Well
(#1992)1. It does and more importantly it is a far better fit with the overall idea of separation of powers.
2. Given the duration the formula hasn't been pursued, not in your life time is the proper response.
3. Binary scenarios have multiple pathways JFTR. Madeline Albright is the retort with respect to the balance.
““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H
Interesting
(#2116)The Democrats seemed to only know how to whine and complain. It is a sad day when people like Nancy Pelosi become Speaker of the House, but I suspect she will in a couple of weeks when the Dems take the House back. The Republicans have imploded and have failed in so many domestic polices such as healthcare, energy and spending control that it's time to let the Democrates have their chance at blowing it for awhile.
Biggest fear: The Democrats will not protect us like the Republicans, and that is the bottom line. There is a world out there with nukes and people willing to use them. Talking and working with the U.N. only gets you so far. The Democrates can still be the party of strong domestic policy and also be strong in defense. Give us another JFK. Let's hope the dems wake up to the threat and stop pandering to the left before disaster strikes.
Let's Examine Your Fears!!
(#2123)How exactly do you believe the 'weak' Democrats will fail to protect you? Anything concrete? Or, to look at the reverse, what have the Republicans been doing that makes you feel safer at night?
(Did the invasion of Iraq make you safer over the last several years? If so, how?)
But back to the Dems. Will they dismantle Homeland Security? Will they support the NK nuke program? Will they invite Iran to the next Goodwill Games?
Kidding, of course. But my point is this: so much of this seems based on ideological fantasy and the usual election rhetoric that has served the GOP in the past. I don't blame them for using it, after all, it worked in the past. I'm just curious as to why you believe it, and again, would be interested in hearing some concrete examples of how a Democrat congress will and might make you less safe.
“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
...why you believe it...
(#2129)John Kerry immediately comes to mind. Maybe if the Dems had put together a plan and run with it, we would be having an entirely different conversation.
But since they have been silent, does that not constitute consent?
““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H
Okay
(#2151)It was primarily the Democrats who have argued over the NSA wiretapping of foreign terrorists. Democratic leaders knew about the Presidents program and said nothing until the story was illegally revealed in the newspapers. Why didn't the Democrats make an issue of the program when they attended meetings at the White House where they were told of the programs existence? I will tell you why. They didn't because it wasn't politically expedient at the time. And really they probably had no problem with it. Of course once the program was outed it was time to jump on the political band wagon and act like you knew nothing about it. How pathetic. The NSA wiretapping program is useful and has helped save lives. I understand the debate is over how it is done and judicial review and such and such. The issue here is about wiretapping foreign terrorists talking to Americans. To even argue over an issue that involves possibly listening to UBL just seems well...ignorant. How about, in bad taste.
The Democrats, and a few Republicans, attempted to stop tough interrogation tactics for big league terrorists. This is not only foolish, it is absolutely irresponsible, how about arrogantly, and pardon the slight, stupid. We are not talking about putting people on the rack, or cutting fingers off, or causing death or organ failure. We are talking about tactics we use on our own soldiers in training. However, there are some who think stripping a man naked and making him stand and listen to the Red Hot Chilly Peppers for hours on end is torture. That is silly and makes you look silly to believe that. Luckily they lost that debate. But again the Democrats support no tough tactics at all. That is not the mind set of people who know how or can win against terrorists.
The Democrats want to allow terrorists to be put on trial as if they where US citizens with all the rights of you and me. Not only is this wrong, it is expensive and dangerous. Military tribunals ensure the integrity of intelligence sources and can operate much faster and more efficiently. If we were to use public courts we run the risk of the government dropping their case to protect sources. We would be forced to release people that are trying to kill us. I believe we can give them a fair trial and preserve some form of due process at the same time. However, enemies of the state do not deserve the same rights as US citizens.
I do not believe Democrats couldn’t protect the country but they need to stop taking foolish positions simply because its contrary to Bush’s position. I fear the Democrats will become so caught up in left wing civil liberties debates that they will forget that the preservation of the innocent should come first, even if we have to give up some liberties to do that.
This is a reasonable position. Most Americans agree, as they have with the President’s wiretap program and his coercive tough interrogation tactics for terrorists. The Democrats were simply on the wrong side in both debates.
If the Democrats had had their way, or they eventually, foolishly, reverse what Bush has put in place, then yes, I think a price will be paid by some Americans who become, literally, casualties of this foolish thinking.
By the way I don't think all Democrats disagree with the President on the above issues. I do know for a fact that some Democrats on Capitol Hill privately support the President on these issues but remain out of the debate for political reasons. So I guess there is hope.
We shall see.
All of your arguments...
(#4803)...imply the idea that just because the US has enemies, we should discard the Constitution.
If we don't give alleged terrorists some sort of trial, how can they advance the idea that they are not terrorists? Maher Arar was just a guy.
"In the very long run, we are all dead." -- John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes