[As I begin this diary, seven out of the eight 2009 MLB playoff positions are set, and the Tigers and Twins are deadlocked 5-5 in the bottom of the 12th inning of the one game playoff to determine the winner of the AL Central, the last playoff position.]
[Strike that--TWINS WIN! TWINS WIN! 6-5 in 12. On with the diary]
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Division Series (best of five: team with home field advantage listed last):
NL:
St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies (wild card) v. Philadelphia Phillies
AL:
Boston Red Sox (wild card) v. Los Angeles Angels*
Minnesota Twins v. New York Yankees
*-- Bite me, Anaheim.
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League Championship Series (best of seven)
NL: TBD (Yankees will have home field advantage against anyone if they advance to this round, and Angels will have home field advantage against the Twins. Twins would have home field advantage against the Red Sox)
AL: TBD (Dodgers will have home field advantage against anyone if they advance to this round, and the Phillies will have home field advantage against the Cardinals if both teams advance to this round. The Cardinals would have home field advantage over the Rockies if both team advance to this round).
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World Series (best of seven)
AL Champion will automatically have home field advantage because Bud the Spud is an idiot. :-P
Now, for the teams--starting with the NL:
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Colorado Rockies:
HOW THEY GOT HERE: winners of NL Wild card with 92-70 record (third best in NL)
Offense/Defense: 804 Runs Scored/715 Opponent Runs Scored (+89, 5th in NL)
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Top Three Available Starting Pitchers: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel (all right handed)
Closer: Houston Street
Record against NLDS Opponent: 2-4
Prediction: Losing Jorge de la Rosa--their only left-handed starting pitcher--to injury during the final weekend of the season against the Dodgers probably doomed the determined Rockies to a first round exit against the dangerous lefty bats of the Phillies. If they somehow prevail, they'll be rooting for the Cardinals--who are 1-6 against the Rockies this season--over the Dodgers--who are 14-4 against the Rockies this season.
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Philadelphia Phillies:
HOW THEY GOT HERE: Won the NL East with a 93-69 record (2nd best in NL)
Offense/Defense: 820 Runs Scored/709 Opposition Runs Scored (+111, 2nd best in NL)
Best Player: Ryan Howard (1B) or Chase Utley (2B)
Top Three* Available Starting Pitchers: Cliff Lee (L), Cole Hamels (L), Pedro Martinez (R), J.A. Happ (L)
Closer: Ryan Madson
Record vs. NLDS opponent: 4-2
Prediction: Hamels ain't what he was last season, but the rotation is strong overall, and having to choose between Pedro Martinez and J.A. Happ as your #3 starter is a pleasant problem to have indeed. The big lefty bats in the Phillies' lineup should have a good time batting against the now-lefty free Rockies rotation. If the Rockies can keep it close until late in the game, the closer position is an obvious Phillie liability. Still, the Philadelphia nine should advance to the next round without much trouble.
*--Hamels really is the fourth best pitcher in this group this season, but will be #2 in the rotation for the playoffs. This may end up biting them in the posterior at some point.
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St. Louis Cardinals :
HOW THEY GOT HERE: Won NL Central Division with a 91-71 record (4th in NL)
Offense/Defense: 730 Runs Scored/640 Opponent Runs Scored (+90, 3rd in NL)
Best Player: Albert Pujols, 1B. The best player in baseball. Duh.
Top Three Available Pitchers: Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter, Joel Pinero (all right handed)
Closer: Ryan Franklin
Record v. NLDS opponent: 5-2.
Prediction: The Cardinals have owned the Dodgers in recent years, and this year has been no exception. If Wainright and Carpenter are on their "A" games, this will probably be an easy NLDS for the Cardinals. As noted earlier, the Rockies dominated the Cardinals in the regular season; however, the Phillies also smacked the Cardinals around quite a bit, beating them four games out of five. Both the Phillies and the Rockies probably won't mind very much if the Cards send the Dodgers packing--and they'll be downright thrilled if the series goes five games.
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Los Angeles Dodgers:
HOW THEY GOT HERE: Won the NL West with a 95-67 record (best in the NL).
Offense/Defense: 780 Runs Scored/611 Opponent Runs Scored (+169, best in NL and in MLB)
Best Player: Matt Kemp, CF (with an honorable mention for Andre "Walkoff Man" Ethier).
Top Three Available Starting Pitchers: Randy Wolf (L), Clayton Kershaw (L), Chad Billingsley (R)*
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
Record v. NLDS Opponent: 2-5
*Yes, Padilla is starting ahead of Billingsley in the NLDS. Billingsley is still better.
Prediction: If the Dodgers can get past the Cardinals, they'll be favorites to make the World Series over either the Phillies (4-3 record vs. them this year) or the Rockies (14-4 record against them this year). The Cardinals' best two starters are clearly better than the Dodgers' top two (at least for now--Clayton Kershaw will probably be the best starting pitcher in MLB in three years if he stays healthy), but the Dodgers recently roughed up Tim Lincecum--when their offense is firing on all cylinders, no pitcher is safe. To win, they need Manny Ramirez to put up solid numbers, and Wolf and Kershaw need to be at their best.
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Now, the AL:
Minnesota Twins:
HOW THEY GOT THERE: Won the AL Central in a one-game playoff against the Detroit Tigers, finishing with an 87-76 record (5th best in AL).
Offense/Defense: 817 Runs Scored/765 Opponent Runs Scored (+52, 4th in AL)
Best Player: Joe Mauer (C). Best hitter in AL this season (1st in BA, SA, OBP, & OPS)--as the defending AL Gold Glove catcher. Enough said.
Best Three Starting Pitchers Available: Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn (all righthanders)
Closer: Joe Nathan
Record vs. ALDS opponent: 0-7
Prediction: Joe Mauer had better be satisfied with the shiny MVP trophy that will likely be on his trophy shelf in about a month--it won't be joined by any postseason hardware this year. Yankees win in three or four games and go on to the ALCS without breaking stride.
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Los Angeles Angels:
HOW THEY GOT THERE: Won the AL West with a 97-65 record (2nd best in AL).
Offense/Defense: 883 Runs Scored, 761 Runs Allowed (+122, 3rd in AL)
Best Player: Kendry Morales, 1B. At least for the moment--the mighty Vlad Guerrero has been limited by injuries this year.
Best Three Starting Pitchers Available: John Lackey (R), Jered Weaver (R), Joe Saunders (L).
Closer: Brian Fuentes
Record against ALDS opponent: 5-4
Prediction: With Boston looking more vulnerable late in the season, and the Angels having played inspired baseball for most of the season after the terrible tragedy of Nick Adenhart's death in an auto accident--this might be the year that the Angels finally get over the big red hump to contend for the AL championship.
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Boston Red Sox:
HOW THEY GOT THERE: Won the AL Wild Card with a 95-67 record (3rd in AL).
Offense/Defense: 872 Runs Scored/736 Opponent Runs Scored (+136, 2nd in AL)
Best Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B (with several close competitors)
Best Three Starting Pitchers Available: Josh Beckett (R), Jon Lester (L), Clay Buchholz (R)
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Record vs. ALDS opponent: 4-5
Prediction: It may all come down to Game Five in Anaheim--and whether Beckett can pull one of his habitual awesome postseasons out of a hat.
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New York Yankees:
HOW THEY GOT THERE: Won the AL East with a 103-59 record (best in MLB)
Offense/Defense: 915 Runs Scored/753 Opponent Runs Scored (+162, best in AL)
Best Player: Alex Rodriguez, 3B (with Teixiera and Jeter not far behind).
Best Three Starting Pitchers Available: CC Sabathia (L), AJ Burnett (R), Andy Pettitte (L).
Closer: Mariano Rivera.
Record vs. ALDS opponent: 7-0
Prediction: The Yankees are clearly the favorite to win the World Series, though not prohibitive ones. The main challenge of the ALDS for them will be not to lose their focus--letting the series go more than three games will be wasting valuable energy that could be used against a tough ALCS foe.


I Was Wrong
(#189576)1) Wolf had one of his worst starts of the season in Game 1;
2) Manny is 1 for 8 in the first two games;
3) Dodgers lead the NLDS 2 games to zero.
"Cardinals will sweep the Dodgers" *that*, Cowherd.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--from Ulysses, by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Who needs a closer
(#189498)... when your starter delivers a game like this?
Yeah, yeah, Brad 'Reversion to the Mean' Lidge will cost 'em sooner or later, but that game was a beautiful sight to see.
Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
I'm in MN
(#189474)Good week to visit.
Hung out in a tavern with my sis during the Twins' game last night. Rowdy.
The night before I caught the Vikes' win at a bar. Football at its best ain't bad and the fans were fun.