The first round of the 2009 MLB playoffs combined two series that surprised few--the Yankees' sweep of the Twins and the Phillies beating the Rockies in four games--and two rather big surprises--with the Dodgers sweeping the Cardinals (after losing five out of seven to them in the regular season) and the Angels sweeping the Red Sox after years of being owned by Boston in the postseason. With the next round of playoffs about to begin, a re-evaluation is in order.
NLCS:
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Philadelphia Phillies, best of seven, starting 10/15/2009
This is a repeat of last year's NLCS, of course, except that the home field advantage belongs to the Dodgers this time. The teams look different--the Dodgers are no longer "The Manny Show", as the maturation of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp have given the Dodgers what is arguably the best all-around outfield in MLB, and a series of shrewd acquisitions and the development of Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Broxton have given the Dodgers the best overall pitching staff in MLB. As for the Phillies, they remain dangerous, but poor seasons from Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, and Jimmy Rollins--while partially offset by the development of J.A. Happ and the acquisition of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez--has shifted the balance of power noticeably in the direction of Los Angeles.
The Game One matchup has already been announced, with Clayton Kershaw going for the Dodgers and Cole Hamels for the Phillies--a matchup that definitely favors the Dodgers given their prior performances this season. Joe Torre has drastically altered his rotation for the first four games, with Vincente Padilla going in Game Two, newly returned Hiroki Kuroda in Game Three, and NLDS Game One starter Randy Wolf going in Game Four. The choice looks odd at first glance, but apparently Wolf is still rather popular in Philadelphia, while Padilla is disliked there. Joe Torre probably thinks that "sabermetrics" is something you take tetracycline to get rid of--but he's pretty decent at dealing with player psychology.*
*--Yes, ARod--we remember. No one's perfect.
Prediction: Dodgers in six.
ALCS:
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels, best of seven, starting 10/16/2009
The Yankees entered the playoffs as the clear--though not prohibitive--favorites to win it all, and no one was surprised when they swept the Twins in the ALDS (admittedly with some help from a horrendous call or two by the umpires). It was rather more surprising when the Angels shook off their postseason shackles against the Red Sox and blew out Boston in three games--culminating in the obliteration of Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth inning of Game Three in front of the shocked Fenway faithful. The combined result for the ALCS was the matchup of two teams who split their ten confrontations in the regular season.
One thing is clear--the Angels aren't about to be intimidated into folding quickly in this series by Yankee mystique. Both teams have potent offenses--including resurgences from ARod and Vladimir Guerrero--with the Yankees having the edge on pitching in spite of a shaky starting rotation. If the Angels can get off to a quick start with a win on the road during the first two games, they might be able to put it away early. If the Yankees can hold serve during their first two home games, look for them to grind out a seven game win--before settling down at New Yankee Stadium to await the arrival of the NL champion for Game One of the World Series.
Prediction: Angels in six. . .or Yankees in seven.
Not Vintage Pedro
(#191068)More like Pedro doing a dead solid perfect imitation of Greg Maddux circa 1995 for seven innings. Fortunately for the Dodgers, the five Phillies pitchers who toiled in the bottom of the eighth inning were less awesome, and the 2009 NLCS is tied at one game apiece in spite of Pedro's heroics.
Keep pitching until you're ready to quit, you old goat--it's been a privilege to watch you.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--from Ulysses, by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Oddly Enough, I'm Not *That* Unhappy About Game One
(#190912)Kershaw and Sherrill had some of their worst games of the year, and the Phillies got a longball from one of their lighter hitters--and the Dodgers still had the tying run at the plate at the end. The Dodgers don't have much quit in them.
On the other hand, Pedro is going for the Phillies tonight, and the Padilla choice for Game Two is looking more shaky now. If Padilla gets torched, Torre is going to be seriously second-guessed for yanking Billingsley from the rotation.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--from Ulysses, by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Phils in 6, Yanks in 6
(#190825)Phils in 7 in the series.
Dynasty time.
It is better to get what you want than it is to be right. -me
I'll stick up for my team
(#190763)... and say Dodgers in 7.
Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
Agree, Disagree
(#190749)Joe Torre is a terrible in-game manager, and that's far more damaging than his ability to handle delicate player psyches. On the other hand, playoff bouts are usually won by pitching, bullpens in particular. The Dodgers have a clear advantage in this department. Dodgers in 6.
One hit does not make a resurgence. I saw Vlad when the Yankees came to Anaheim a few weeks ago. He looked old and hopeless. He'll be better than that, of course, but not enough. Tori Hunter is the batter most feared by Yankee fans in that lineup.
But it's the bullpens again. The Angel bullpen is terrible. The Yankee bullpen stumbled a little against the Twins, but is markedly superior. Yankees in 7. (If they start hitting, and they didn't hit for beans against the Twins, they'll take it in 5.)
“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
Hey. . .
(#190764). . .we seem to be more or less in agreement (other than regarding whose bats might get hot in the ALCS). Works for me. :-)
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--from Ulysses, by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
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parentWeather Helper
(#190891)Looks like a rainy night in New York. Which slows down the track for those pesky Angels. Harder to go first to third. Stealing second too.
This should help the Yankees, tho' they've been a very successful base-stealing team themselves this year.
“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
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parentColin Cowherd Is Ranting About The Weather In NY
(#190908)Much to my annoyance, he's right. MLB needs to make whatever changes are necessary to make sure the scheduled postseason ends by mid-October or earlier--this is getting ridiculous. One specific solution that he didn't mention--day-night doubleheaders so the owners won't complain as much about lost revenue--would be far more practical if pitching wasn't so thin right now.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--from Ulysses, by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
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parentWhen did this site turn against baseball?
(#190728)We used to get long discussions on the histories of franchises and such.
I will grieve over their absence on long winter evenings.