And what a taster it was.
While people shift the blame for the Great Blackout around, the underlying themes are conveniently forgotten. Our monsoons have been variable in the past. But every 100 million population increase makes it worse. This year the monsoons have reduced by 22%. Just 22%! I still remember - 600 million people 30 years ago - this fraction would have been a deal, but not a big deal. Decreasing monsoons mean less water in hydroelectric panaceas and less generation. Frantic pumping of groundwater out of a lowering water table. No significant rainwater harvesting. The frantic pursuit of water, ageing, poorly maintained grids and fossil fuel powered generation all combine into the perfect storm.
And of course, the greatest dilemma of all - we are not discussing the futility of creating an acquisitive culture so that 1.2 billion people can aspire to the systematically destructive "living standards" of our peers abroad, without simultaneously destroying ourselves in the process. Ins very interesting essay, by a Mr Mead we know that the powers that be in the rest of the world are focused on further energy spending.
The energy revolution of the 21st century isn’t about solar energy or wind power and the “scramble for oil” isn’t going to drive global politics. The energy abundance that helped propel the United States to global leadership in the 19th and 2oth centuries is back; if the energy revolution now taking shape lives up to its full potential, we are headed into a new century in which the location of the world’s energy resources and the structure of the world’s energy trade support American affluence at home and power abroad.
By some estimates, the United States has more oil than Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran combined, and Canada may have even more than the United States. A GAO report released last May (pdf link can be found here) estimates that up to the equivalent of 3 trillion barrels of shale oil may lie in just one of the major potential US energy production sites. If half of this oil is recoverable, US reserves in this one deposit are roughly equal to the known reserves of the rest of the world combined.
And why is this development essential? Why, to create jobs for an already rich population.
The energy revolution is first and foremost a revolution that affects jobs. We are in the very early stages, but since the financial crisis of 2008, fracking alone has created something like 600,000 new jobs in the United States, says the FT. Throw in more jobs in both extracting and refining the new energy wealth, and add the manufacturing and processing industries that will return to US shores to benefit from cheap, secure and abundant energy and feedstock, and it is clear that the energy revolution will be a jobs revolution.
These jobs pay well; for the first time in a generation we are looking at substantial growth of high-income jobs for skilled blue collar workers. Some of these jobs, especially with overtime, will pay in the six figures; most offer wages well above the national blue collar average.
The boom has the potential to change the debate over immigration. The best blue collar jobs in the new oil and gas patches will demand workers with good English language skills and some technical background — good junior colleges and strong vocational high schools will prepare workers for these new jobs. Low skilled, non-English speaking workers will have a hard time competing for these jobs but will work instead in less well paid jobs servicing the energy sector and its workers. They will build houses for the oil workers to live in and staff the restaurants where they eat. As more blue collar native-born Americans see their living standards rise, it is likely that (legal) immigration will lose some of its political salience.
But blaming the West for our problems (though part of our political DNA) is, as always, futile. The West will continue do what it has always been the best at doing - the most vigorous and efficient exploitation, at any cost. Mr Mead, again.
Politics in an age of survival is ugly and practical. It has to be. The best leader is the one who can cut out all the fluff and the folderol and keep you alive through the winter. During the Battle of Leningrad, people burned priceless antiques to stay alive for just one more night.
---
They will butcher every panda in the zoo before they see their children starve, they will torch every forest on earth before they freeze to death, and the cheaper and the meaner their lives are, the less energy or thought they will spare to the perishing world around them.
We need to stop the wishful thinking that someone in the avidly consuming people, at some point in the future will see and understand and put measures in place to deal with emissions control. We are not in a position to influence the debate or the outcomes. We need to focus on adaptation and mitigation. In many ways we are progressing well - especially in the vitally important area of reducing population growth, so that the impact on future generations is lower. Our elites, being culturally frugal do a better job than most at reducing consumption - although this, too, is under threat. Perhaps it was heartening to note the lack of increase in crime and violence over the days of the blackout - but we have not been particularly efficient at organised violence. But what we really need to do is radically reverse the idea of a culture of permanently increasing consumption, in spite of what our supine propagandists tell us.



You have power!
(#285445)Good for you!
No, no
(#285446)The Power is Yours
"I’m to believe that North Korea is so dangerously unhinged that they would attack without warning – yet so meek and easily cowed that they will sit quietly and not retaliate when we start bombing them."
Major Kong
not related to global warming?
(#285481)Is there any discussion of this not being related to global warming?
There was an extreme solar flare last month, and this can effect power supply.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-solar-flare-201207...
And there was unprecedented melting of Greenland's icecap over a 4 day period last month, as well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18978483
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
You misunderestimate India's ability to influence events.
(#285494)Why? Because I said so.
But if for some odd reason you think that's not a good answer, look at the Chinese. They have built a vast renewable energy sector in a few years. They are almost solely responsible for a brutal drop in solar PV costs (though German demand was key to create scale), and they are working all angles of the problem.
So one of these days they are going to turn around and use these achievements as leverage, because believe me, this will become a serious international issue sooner or later.
Meanwhile, fracking is seeing some pushback in the US. It is at a virtual standstill in New York State and has been ruled out within or near the New York City watershed and every county with high income. Basically what's left are the poorer counties on the border with Pennsylvania, and even there resistance is significant.
In any case, the percentage of blue collar workers who can roam the country on oil and gas rigs is not that high. And, of course, automation and new technology will bear down on fracking as it has everywhere else. Gas fracking (done with propane instead of water) is not only cleaner, but requires far less labor, for example using 10% of the truck shipments hydrofracking needs).
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
China's solar industry isn't changing much domestically.
(#285496)The entire Chinese solar panel industry is running at a loss. To salvage their investment, they've got five year plans to increase domestic panel installation to 15 gigawatts but even that's going to be done from government spending. Even so, the total percentage of solar power generated is a tiny fraction: China used 4.693 trillion kWh in 2011. What's more, they're planning to put in those solar panel farms too far out for efficient power transmission. China's desperately trying to spread the peanut butter inland but it's just not working out: the money remains along the coast.
The economics of solar improve when the panel's on site, say on the roof of the building which uses that power. Photovoltaic for large scale power generation is a poor use of resources. You're much better off to use mirrors to focus solar power to generate steam in those cases.
that loss becomes their gain
(#285589)"The entire Chinese solar panel industry is running at a loss"
But if they can outrun their competitors, that loss becomes their gain. That's what I figure is going on here. Massive schemes to develop the hinterlands are nothing new in China, and this time these areas have access to plentiful solar.
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
It's still a loss, Micky. No getting around that.
(#285632)PV solar is only viable in small, remote installations. It's making a surprising amount of headway with the few nomads who remain, e.g. the Bedouins. They also use little anemometer-type wind power generation.
But industrial capacity? Whole towns? Not a chance. China's not going to develop the hinterlands effectively. They're making huge mistakes with their top-down approach.
I think...
(#285633)...you need to define viable before we can continue this discussion.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Here's viability defined.
(#285637)Here's a standard-issue 250 w solar panel for sale. No inverter, no frame.
250 W solar panel (10 years waranty)- $400
Controller (Hope, it will last 10 years-$0)- $100
Twice x3 12v marine batteries- 2x3x$100= $600
Sales Taxes- $100 aprox.
Misc. installing/cleaning/servicing Items- $150 est.
TOTAL_ $1,350
10 years x 365 days + 2.5 days (leap years)=3,652.5 days
3,652.5 days x 12 hours (12 hrs- night)=43,830 hours
43,830hrs x .75(minus sunset+sunrise- 25%)=32,872.5hrs
32,872.5hrs x .75(rain,dirt,dust,leaves,snow)=24,654.4hrs
The sun is moving, so beams aren't hitting panel at 90 degrees, so the 0.5 coef. should have been applied, but that's Ok. (Battery in/out isnt 100% also... another x0.5 I guess?)
So, aprox. 25,000 hours x 250 Watts /1000 = 6,250 kWh
6,250 kWh x $0.18/kWh= $1,125
In conclusion $1,125 - $1,350 = -$225 ($225 loss)
$1,350/$1,125x10yrs=12years to return investment.
Capitalization rate: 1,125/10/1,350x100%= 8.3% aprox. Which is less than 10% to be equal, or way less than 50% to be profitable.
You forgot the 30% federal tax credit
(#285638)and many states have tax credits for PV as well.
Also, Germany would disagree with you on viability.
I blame it all on the Internet
You can't subsidise your way to economic viability.
(#285639)Even if I take 30% off the total, that doesn't cut my up-front expenses and no, solar panels are subject to state sales taxes. Even stipulating to everything you say, PV is not economically viable unless you're a long way off the grid. I've been doing this a while.
The deduction does change your calculation
(#285640)Your model was for lifetime expense/benefits, so objecting that it doesn't affect point of purchase isn't really germane.
Also, buying PV panels at retail is by far the most expensive way to acquire them. Buying wholesale will drop the price significantly, and there are also deductions for homebuilders that incorporate PV and other technologies in new homes and refurbs.
If you want a more accurate comparison, include the subsidies that the feds send to petroleum/gas producers in your calculations as well.
I blame it all on the Internet
Look, I wish every house had solar shingles.
(#285641)Nothing would make me happier than to subsidise the solar shingle and price the old asphalt shingle into extinction. I'd like to embed piezoelectric into the roadbeds and bridges. I'd capture all sorts of waste heat where it's generated.
But PV just isn't ready for prime time until it can generate more watts and batteries get better. May God speed that day, but it won't be tomorrow and likely not the day after, either. If we're to plow money into infrastructure, we'd get a better ROI by upgrading our existing power grid. Just cutting transmission line loss would give us a huge leg up on the problem. If we're going to put money into PV, we're better served to quit thinking about the old panel and start in on the solar shingle.
If you want to be even more accurate
(#285644)you need to distinguish between present and future value of money, and that disadvantages PV substantially, over and above Blaise's calculation.
And Blaise was being generous in the generation side of his calculation. You can't leave out the 0.5 multiplier unless you have a daily azimuth tracker plus someone adjusting the elevation once a month or so. Trackers cost almost as much as the panels plus they consume some of the output power. And his 0.75 multipliers are about the best you could hope for in someplace like Tucson. Even there typical estimates are 25% capacity factor overall, so for his 250 watt panel it's really more like 5500 kWh over 10 years. That's with a tracker, which he didn't include in the price.
I know greedy capitalists are evil, but they're more greedy than evil, and the reason they aren't investing more in PV is that they've run the numbers and it doesn't work out. It's actually not very close right now. On the other hand, there's plenty of investment in wind, and that's because the numbers work out well with the subsidy and maybe even break even without the subsidy.
PV is more than competitive
(#285647)If you include external costs that the fossil fuel industry gets to dump on society. But of course that's not done. Those costs will still have to be paid though.
I'm all for accuracy
(#285648)and the more accurate the lifecycle computations the better. I just don't think that simple retail prices and residential electricity rates paint an accurate picture.
I blame it all on the Internet
Aha...
(#285656)So the word viable means profit.
I assume fossil fuels are viable then?
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Erm, no. That's not what I meant.
(#285658)By viable, I mean "taking all costs and benefits of all potential solutions into consideration, the most viable solution will be chosen." PV has its costs and benefits. It's not the most cost-effective in many circumstances. Which isn't to say all of them. And please... don't put words in my mouth. I've already said I'd love to see more solar power.
But,
(#285664)unwittingly, I am sure, your use of the word viable is the same as that of fossil fuel advocates.
As for:
"taking all costs and benefits of all potential solutions into consideration, the most viable solution will be chosen."
That's fair enough, but is that what you did? If so, I am not seeing it.
By my reckoning fossil fuels are not viable when taking all costs and benefits into consideration. The problem is that the lion's share of these costs are externalized, so they can be made to look cheap. PV externalizes very few, if any, costs.
PV wouldn't need to be subsidized if fossil fuel externalities (and even subsidies) were borne by fossil fuel users. A PV subsidy is actually a market failure correction, since the market has no mechanism where a coal-fired electricity user pays for the fact that there is mercury in my bloodstream as a result, just to name one example.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Hey Blaise
(#285659)can I borrow this analysis for a business plan for our water pump project? I have to complete the application by next week. Where do get the $250 figure?
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Straight from the link provided.
(#285665)The analysis came from that page, as well.
Thanks.
(#285673)I see I misread the price - $400.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Batteries only required
(#286733)if you're off the grid.
That said, I did run the numbers here and even with a generous subsidy (we're allowed to write off all capital costs against tax and have a preferential feed in rate to the grid), as soon as you get realistic about likely actual output the payback period is long. 15 years or so. If we were allowed to claim the subsidies on larger installations the picture would get better.
In the end I went with solar thermal since I calculated break even at 10 years. Not sure if that was realistic though since output is harder to judge than PV (I spend most of the summer with a hot water tank at maximum allowable temperature and doing its best to dump as much heat as possible) and maintenance and repair costs will probably be more than I expected.
I doubt fracking is going away. Your next President's team
(#285506)could be described as the "fracking team". Cleaner fracking is perhaps the only silver lining.
As for our ability to influence debate, forget it. Our elites' priorities are very similar to yours.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Incidentally, this is the state of your Senate's attitude to AGW
(#285514)http://davidappell.blogspot.de/2012/08/from-senate-hearing.html
so I do not see a significant walkback on CO2 emissions in the short or medium term.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
The Senate is a traling indicator.
(#285538)I don't put much stock in that kind of hearing.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
You think Romney is going to win, Manish? nt
(#285529).
I blame it all on the Internet
Well, catchy's arguments seem to be fairly persuasive.
(#285532)Mr Obama's anti-outsourcing rhetoric hasn't gone down too well here.
People expect Mr Romney to be more businesslike about profits, and better disposed to increased US corporate profitability.
Also Mr Romney would appear to have more money (at least to my sketchy observations). So yes, in answer to you.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Let me ask you a question
(#285535)if Mr. Mukherjee made a speech condemning Vietnam for undercutting Indian wages and taking outsourced jobs away from Indians, do you think that would go over well politically?
I blame it all on the Internet
Vietnam is hammering our tea industry
(#285536)already and the Philippines are hitting outsourcing. And yes, I understand Mr Obama's political calculations. But we have to look at our own interests, too.
Also, infighting amongst plebeians looks bad to the patricians and hurts everyone.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
My point is
(#285539)Americans vote in American elections, and Indians vote in Indian elections. I doubt Obama or Romney care about any foreign opinion polls.
Bashing foreigners has often been a good political move. How has it worked for the BJP?
I blame it all on the Internet
Hammering you industry?
(#285551)Whatever happened with the business-like pursuit of profitability?
It's interesting to see your language flip on a dime when you find yourself on the other side of the question. A bit unseemly to do it within a couple of comments, though.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
I think Manish was espousing a Guerreriste viewpoint,
(#285556)in which there is no contradiction just because "good for India" happens to involve contrary import/export policies.
M Aurelius was probably right.
If only it were "good for India"
(#285560)I'd be for it. At least where the software rubber meets the road, India's just not developing much of a domestic market. Furthermore, the TCS / Infosys model exploits the developer: the middlemen make the big money and the developer gets almost nothing. It doesn't matter if the developer is any good: as long as he's billable, he's good. The TCS middlemen extort baksheesh from the developers and treat them like dirt.
American corporations are now getting wise to all these monkeyshines. American developers are sick of their email inboxes full of crap offers from boiler room operations. The Indian software model is parasitic. It doesn't innovate because it doesn't create its own market and abuses those who might create it.
Well, it's not the Indian developers' fault. Those developers need to get out from under the abusive plantation model and it's an Indian model. I've worked with superb Indian developers, every bit my equal, knowing they're getting paid less than a tenth of what I'm getting on the same gig. When that model's broken, and I don't know what can be done from the Indian side of the fence to break it, then we'll see something better, but not before.
I agree. Its a bad model.
(#285563)But see my comment to MA above.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
We're not very good with pursuit of profitability, are we?
(#285564)I don't hold a brief for the inefficient. I was merely pointing out that Mr Obama's anti-outsourcing rhetoric is not something people here like to hear - and that's the truth even though Mr Obama is personally pretty popular - if for nothing else than "getting" OBL.
I'm personally not in the business of profitability at any cost, now that CO2 emissions are threatening a catastrophe. Apart from CO2 emissions, almost everything else about modernity, industrialisation and the liberal democracy derived from this has been beneficial. My lament - if it were not for CO2, almost all the macro indices of human endeavour are doing well IMO.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
On the flip side, the outsourcing goes on nonetheless.
(#285568)Harley-Davidson, a quintessentially American marque, is in the process of outsourcing its IT to Infosys Americans are getting sick and tired of being the world's marketplace, only to have our jobs sent overseas. We won't remain the world's marketplace for long at this rate. Really, India needs to quit thinking about solving our problems and start solving its own.
My industry is being destroyed by outsourcing. Once there was a day when consultants had to know something. With Indians, and I've seen it too many times to believe this is just a fluke, it's all about status. A surprising amount of bullying goes on in their ranks. I don't tolerate it on my teams but it goes on anyway.
Shouldn't you be asking why Harley Davidson
(#285573)would do this? Surely the management sees some good in it - besides profit.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Why is the last question.
(#285576)Answer who, what, when and how... why becomes blazingly obvious. Harley-Davidson has made some serious errors before, particularly selling-out to AMF years ago. AMF almost ruined the company. It was eventually bought by Willie Davidson and several other investors.
Very few logos end up tattooed onto people's shoulders. The Harley-Davidson marque is something quite special. We might ask what good outsourcing those jobs might be, when the chief strength of your corporation is its fanatically loyal American customer base. Harley Davidson has made a huge mistake.
Management doesn't care about profit.
(#285608)Management cares about bonuses and stock options. These are based on short-range profit targets.
So Infosys is going to come in, run Harley Davidson's systems. In the knowledge transfer process a huge amount of information will be lost, for many reasons. Current IT staff will quit before they are off-shored if they find another job. The team Infosys sends in will generally be unfamiliar with the environment and, being a new gig, will have high rotation the first couple of years (which is the same period when a quickly shrinking old IT staff is still available).
If it's a typical contract, Infosys will be the exclusive provider of upgrades, changes, custom development or implementation, and so on. Their hourly rate will be low, but they will bill hours for everything. Users in the company will find a drop in responsiveness and a need to get every little thing authorized six ways from Sunday. So they will give up for most things, and accept a lower level of service.
The environment can degrade for years. This is really a loss of capital. But costs will initially be lower. So the bonuses roll out. Year one, two, three. New contract! Now getting rid of Infosys is hard. They have the know-how and nobody is left in the company who actually knows how to run anything, or even who some of the vendors are. Thus stuck, Infosys will pivot and give the contract more variable components in exchange for an even lower theoretical cost.
So now the CIO has saved money for three years. He signs a contract claiming a further 5 or 10% reduction. He got his bonuses and for his stellar performance he gets another job somewhere else. But now is when the turds start hitting the fan. Software hasn't been updated in years, servers have gone unpatched, outages become either more frequent or more serious. Business is lost. Perhaps billing doesn't work for a few days, or the warehouse is frozen because the stock tracking system is down.
Change a couple of names and I've seen this exact scenario play out twice now. Maybe Harley Davison will manage it differently, but I sure wouldn't bet money on it.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Harley-Davidson has gone to a big ERP system.
(#285631)I think they're either replacing or upgrading their JDEdwards.system.
I love this scenario. It's very good for my business. As you say, inevitably, the environment degrades to the point where the CIO takes off, leaving the actual management to pick up the pieces. That's when I and people like me enter the picture and we don't come cheap. I swear, over the last few years, I guess it's more than a decade now, that's about all I'm doing any more, picking up the pieces after these gargantuan initiatives topple like the Tower of Babel and everyone wanders off speaking a different language.
As I'm sure I don't have to tell you, the firefighters are dropped in by the divisions, not by the CIO. The divisions love SOA solutions: just push minimal messages around and everyone's very happy.
Hey, that's what I do!
(#286225)Sometimes I've felt like Winston Wolf.
It is simply unbelievable how far things can slide when nobody is running the show and the rules are provided by a cargo-cult version of ITIL (which frankly isn't my cup of tea even in the best implementations).
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Ha!
(#285550)If anybody in India thinks that Romney will be good for India, they are so wholly delusional one would be tempted to suggest medication. And if they are already on medication, they should stop.
Romney has just demonstrated the foreign policy sense of a small rodent, and the state of the world will quickly reflect that.
You will also forgive me for a complete lack of sympathy for US corporate profitability built on off-shoring. I simply know too many guys in IT who've lost their job and were made to train their replacements, while service delivery quality fell, and not just in the US by the way. And, eventually, costs weren't all that great because every little change needs to be contracted as an extra fee. But by then the CIO went home with a big fat bonus, and had left the position.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
So the other day I get a call for a gig.
(#285557)It's some guy who wants a technical architect, onsite in some hell hole in New Jersey. He'd gotten his RFP accepted.
So I ask him: will I have control over the offshore team? Sadly no.
Will I have control of the deliverable? Again, sadly no.
Can I do the work remotely? No.
Will I have control of the timeline? Once agan, nahi-ji.
Oh, and he couldn't get his developers connectivity into the client site.
In other words, I told him, you want me to write spec, push and pull code from an offsite connection, trot the code in the client's door, integrate and take responsibility for it all.
Well, yes.
Alas, that I must have control of some aspect of this project beyond taking the blame. I have been in this situation before, getting up in the middle of the night to make Skype conference calls to India, looking at version control diffs only to find people haven't been doing anything. I am perfectly capable of running this project on your behalf but I really must run it.
I've worked with good offshore teams. I've worked with bad ones. Every time I lacked the mandate to sack a worthless developer, they've all been bad.
Was this for Knight Capital?
(#285606)Based in Jersey and I hear they have a bug or two that needs fixing...
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
I do not know enough
(#285565)to comment on the fallout for us (but I expect it won't be very significant either way). And its not relevant whether Mr Romney has the FP sense of a rodent - although as the Governor of a rich, educated state I suspect you might be underestimating him.
What is reasonably clear is that a Romney presidency will lead to a quicker rise in CO2 emissions because of his fossil fuel supporters. But Mr Obama and Dr Chu haven't really led on this issue either.
We simply have to hunker down, and take it on the chin.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
He tried at Copenhagen
(#285604)But it wasn't in the cards.
CAFE is a big win here domestically, that he didn't need Congressional cooperation on.
"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs
One person finds my Romney-will-be-president arguments
(#285572)persuasive!
You're the first person to admit that so far.
I find them persuasive.
(#285578)Why else do you think I've been so grouchy?
I also find your "Obama should've & could've done more" arguments persuasive. Where we seem to part ways is on the question of what to do about it. My solution amounts to "double down & elect more progressive types to Congress & statehouses, and push for greater acceptance of progressive ideas in the public sphere." I'm not yet clear what your solution is. Did that sound grouchy?
M Aurelius was probably right.
Grouchy could be the issue
(#285615)From my PoV, Obama supporters often discount the cons associated with him b/c they're too quick to believe that all blame lies elsewhere.
That makes it difficult to have an honest conversation over the pros and cons of criticizing Obama and/or withholding a vote in his favor.
A live issue not so long ago to me was weighing Obama's cons against the benefits of possibly bringing D politicians to heel (on the assumption that the Republican base achieves more of its goals by enforcing party purity).
However, that worry seemed more poingant, at least to me, when conservatism's failure wasn't so pronounced in Europe.
IOW, this was more a live question 6-9 months ago before evidence of the extreme negative effects of austerity wasn't as on display.
That's different...
(#285537)Our elites' priorities are very similar to yours.
Then your limitation to influence events is internal, not a function of India's place in the world. Can't help you there.
I don't see Romney winning just yet. He's a weak candidate.
My main worry is the House. I don't see it going democratic. Even if the democrats win back a few seats, the GOP caucus will likely be even worse than the current one.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Only silver lining?
(#285575)I've read that although fracking has poisoned some water basins, that it's also made natural gas dramatically cheaper, causing some power plants to switch from coal to natural gas, and resulting in a net reduction of CO2 emissions.
"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs
Here's Another Silver Lining
(#285579)It used to cost 4.25/Gal to refill the five gallon propane tank that fuels the grill out back (which I use ~4-5 nights a week, year 'round).
Now it costs 3.75/Gal.
Question for a BBQ expert
(#285580)In the interest of reducing carbon footprint we're considering replacing our 36" long x 18" diam charcoal smoker/grill with a 45" x 45" Fresnel lens. Will I still get the genuine charbroiled taste?
Get a little smoker box
(#285581)Such as this one. I line mine with tinfoil, poke a few holes through. The secret to charbroil is smoke.
Sure, but He's Trying to Reduce His
(#285583)carbon footprint.
The smoke from that box = melted permafrost.
What we need is carbonless smoke
(#285585)IANA chemist but I believe burning sulfur chips in the smoker would produce smoke but no carbon, no? I much prefer the Texas/Louisiana style taste to the Memphis/Kansas City. I hope the sulfur wouldn't mess that up.
PS In actuality Blaise is right. Properly done the chips in the smoker should release their volatiles but instead of burning, they would be converted to charcoal. I could then give the charcoal a proper dignified burial to sequester it, and then enjoy my steak in a warm haze of ethical superiority.
Depends on the Focal Length
(#285582)and whether or not the beam from your lens ignites the wooden bench underneath your steak.
Nope. But with the right rub you can get some classy BBQ flavors
(#285584)I personally recommend about 15-30 SPF. Any higher than that and you'll run out of daylight slow roasting; any lower and you'll wind up with raw meat gloved in a caramelized carbon sheathe. And of course lotions claiming greater than 60 SPF are a scam. I prefer Banana Boat which adds a citrus tang with a soupcon of passion fruit. But go Coppertone if you want more of a coconut/luau kind of vibe.
M Aurelius was probably right.
Totally unrelated (but true) response
(#285586)I've tried sprouting some mail-order marula seeds; only got one to germinate and it's now almost 5 ft tall. Then a few days ago I read that (a) it takes years to get fruit, and (b) there are male and female trees so a single tree is hopeless anyway. Last night in a fit of impatience I went to the liquor store and found Amarula for sale ($24.99 for 750ml).
It's wonderful. Like Bailey's but smoother and with a subtle hint of fruitiness. Not exactly citrus, not exactly berry like, but something in between. Normally you wouldn't think such flavors would work with a cream based liqueur, but it does.
Also unrelated, file under tourist injuries.
(#285590)My first trip to London, I notice that all over the tourist spots (Tower of London, Tower Bridge, Picadilly, etc.) there are these guys cooking candied apples over coal-fired ovens. Coolio! Bloody well aufentic London street life, eh guvnah?
Finally bought one. Damn if it didn't taste like coal. Bitter tar-and-soot flavor in the caramel coating, bitter coaltar flavor in the apple itself. I ask myself: since when is bituminous coal a spice? Did everything in London taste this way in the 19th century?
M Aurelius was probably right.
I believe you could actually bite the air of 19th c. London
(#285599)maybe an urban legend that one shouldn't let go of.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Not an expert
(#285587)with a lens you'll get broiling, but for char you need something burning in the cooking chamber. I think to truly replicate a BBQ you'd need to focus the light on some gas BBQ rocks underneath the steak, as they heated and fat dripped off the steak onto them the fat would partially burn and give you the char-broiled flavor.
I blame it all on the Internet
Hold the Fresnel lens
(#285602)and get a solar cooker. For the roast potatoes, at least.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Also gas combustion will become more efficient
(#285601)so there may well be less emissions from the plant. Also gas plants are easier to switch on and off than coal, so it works synergistically
with renewables some of which work part of the day, or at peak times.Net net it makes no difference in total emissions AFAIK, because of the energy spent to extract the gas with current techniques. This may change in future, naturally.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
I don't think that's true
(#285607)natural gas appears to emit about half the carbon of coal plants per unit of energy produced. However, methane is a very potent greenhouse gas, and losing even small amounts in drilling or transport could vastly increase the greenhouse effect.
I blame it all on the Internet
There are other externalities
(#285617)like energy spent in getting the water for the hydraulic fracturing process. This may not be a problem in the US, but it is here, where getting water outside of irrigation is a big issue. Also, the chemicals needed for fracking (e.g. guar gum) are derived from seed, so they need water to be grown - they cannot be produced synthetically yet, although people are trying.
Fortunately we have adequate supplies of the guar gum necessary. But those fields need irrigating too. Our monsoons have been poor this year - overpumping of groundwater in the sowing season (right now) may have triggered the Great Blackout.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/28/us-india-shale-guar-idUSBRE84R...
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
All true...
(#285629)But propane fracking eliminates the need for water. It does use sand, though I don't know about guar gum.
The big advantage is that the propane evaporates, leaving the chemicals behind, and can be recaptured and reused. Water brings the chemicals back up and pollutes aquifers or the surface. And of course you need to get the water in the first place, which is a problem in arid regions.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
Emissions = GDP x technology
(#285893)Makes sense.
I like the idea of a carbon tax, but it may not be effective politically. Better to focus on technology and other measures such as these. Problem is, Fukushima has put a stigma on nuclear.
Government is merely a servant – merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn’t. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them.
Nuclear stigma
(#285925)Major long term policy issues decided by the level of short term news coverage given to scary but uncommon events. That's an unavoidable problem we have to accept in a democracy with a free press, but it's still a problem.
If carbon emissions are as grave a threat as claimed, then one has to recognize that losing a few hundred square miles and a few hundred people every decade or so in a reactor failure is trivial by comparison. When someone responds with "solar panels" that's a signal to me that they don't really believe in global warming as a serious problem.
What harm has the press done to the nuclear business
(#286174)What harm has the press done to the nuclear business in USA? In February 2012 the federal licensing agency gave the go ahead to 2 new reactors, the first new construction since 1978.
The nuclear industry has been stopped in Japan now, but I don't think the press was responsible. News coverage from there that I've seen was pretty restrained in both NHK and private channels. If American coverage was more hysterical than the Japanese, then the licensing decision tends to show how little importance the media has. The media in the USA are, after all, owned by the same folks as the nuclear industry.
If you want to consider the incompatibility of democratic institutions and nuclear power (a worthy line of inquiry, I think) it is the court system you should be looking at.
I am pretty sure nobody here has posted about this, but there is a weapon making facility in Rocky Flats Colorado which has been polluting the surrounding area with plutonium. A year after the facility was raided in 1990 by the EPA and FBI for 'environmental crimes' a group of downwind residents sued Rockwell and Dow, and was awarded about half a billion by a jury for damages to property and health etc. That took 16 years. The decision was appealed and very quickly overturned and the awards thrown out. The defendants appealed to the supreme court and in June this year the Supreme court declined to review. Maybe the ones who are still alive can start over again.
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a court to find that plutonium contamination can damage property and health, especially in a democracy that not under a command economy. But it is unreasonable because a bloated juggernaut like the nuclear industry is incompatible with democratic institutions.
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
I don't think the press has it in
(#286182)for the nuclear industry. They just like to report disasters, and unusual disasters more than usual (ongoing daily) disasters. Listeners then tend to judge risk level by the amount of news coverage. Nuclear power, spree shooters, and child abductors make good news stories but are small threats compared to things like commuting to work or owning a swimming pool.
We could have a whole separate thread on the problems with the court system. I'm not familiar with the details of the Rocky Flats case or why the initial decision was overturned. Rockwell and Dow profit from the plant but it is only nominally private - there is pervasive govt presence in a nuclear weapons plant, and whoever was supposed to be keeping an eye on the contractors might have had a different interest the case than the EPA and the plaintiffs.
In any case, if your concern is that nuclear plant operators don't pay for the risks involved, it's also true that conventional plant operators don't pay for their effect on the environment, and getting justice for victims is a political issue rather than something specific to the technology used in any particular type of plant.
To me the bottom line is that nuclear is risky, but the risks are in principle addressable by well-understood things like careful design reviews, quality control in manufacturing, and yeah, properly connecting responsibility with liability. The problems with the major alternatives - fossil fuels - are inherent. You burn hydrocarbons, you get CO2, and making it disappear is hard and expensive.
You're just saying this cos you're in France and pro-France
(#286186)which is nice and clean and non-polluted because most electricity there is nuclear.
Also, we've worked out you want to stay there.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
It is worth noting
(#286191)that whenever someone proposes a new Mideast war for the purpose of keeping the oil flowing, the French seem less interested than the other Europeans.
Strange thing though - saw relatively few electric vehicles and hybrids there. Their basic idea seems to be very small light cars using conventional engines.
That will change soon.
(#286222)Strange thing though - saw relatively few electric vehicles and hybrids there.
European manufacturers have been slow to adopt electrified solutions. For years they insisted diesel was the way. But this has changed, especially at Renault, since Carlos Ghosn decided a few years ago that the industry had to move to electric to remain viable. That resulted first in the Leaf (Ghosn is CEO both of Renault and Nissan), but now Renault has introduced a range of electrics, including a utility, a mid-sized sedan, and a small car I mentioned before here called the Zoe, notable for its low price and leased battery arrangement.
So, because of diesel, hybrids are not so popular, but a significant jump to electrics is plausible in a continent where distances are short and fuel is very expensive.
I am not a pessimist. I am an incompetent optimist.
It's the drive to gigantism about the industry that worries me
(#286219)As I understand it, nuclear generators should ideally be about the size of those that power nuclear submarines. These are the easiest and safest to maintain and run. It is not so much technical considerations but economical and political that determine the 800 Megawatt behemoths that are the norm. It's the drive to gigantism about the industry that worries me. The bigger they are, the more damage they'll do when their safety features do fail, as they did, several times, in Fukushima.
I think this was the reason given by the head, yes the head, of the nuclear regulatory agency when he cast the only vote against giving the green light to the Georgia plants I mentioned earlier. The plants are so large and so toxic and the risks are too high, is what he said The guy is an engineer who knows these plants through and through. Not one to get skittish over alarmist reporting.
By the way, I think you will search the press in vain for why he cast his 'no' vote, but I've just given a brief outline. He also worries that should nuclear power be put to wider use, it almost guarantees the manufacture proliferation of the weapons. Interestingly, he also says that the waste storage issue is really not so much to worry about. Material with a 10,000 year half life is well on the way to being inert. The really bad stuff like the cesium and strontium that spewed from Fukushima have only 30 year half lives, and they will kill thousands in the years to come.
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
Gigantism is good
(#286259)It pains me to say it, all my instincts are in favor of decentralization, redundancy, local self-sufficiency, small entrepreneurial rather than large corporate stuff. But I had to teach an energy course this summer, and when you have to justify your instincts in front of a roomful of highly numerate people who want figures rather than words, it forces you to the conclusion that gigantic is good especially when it comes to nuclear.
Let's start with the risk factor. Yes, a bigger plant means the worst case accident - an outright explosion of the containment vessel - is proportionately larger, but more plants means more accidents, and many types of accidents - for example slow leaks - are not proportional to size. If everyone had a garbage can size nuke in their basement, there would be accidents somewhere in the US every single day. If you are worried about proliferation, more plants means more shipments that can be hijacked, more IT systems that can be hacked, etc.
Next, the redundancy / grid reliability argument. It's true that you don't want all your generating capacity in a single plant. But you get most of the reliability if you have a few dozen plants in a given region, beyond that it's rapidly diminishing returns. Having 100 plants on a grid, any 80 of which are sufficient, is not hugely better than having 20 plants, any 16 of which are sufficient.
Which leaves the big one, efficiency. It comes down to details of how much trouble you take to recover waste heat, and there are lots of different places where heat is wasted. Any one of these taken alone might amount to a 2% difference. Adding another heat exchanger to recover 2% of 10MW is likely not worth it, adding one to recover 2% of 1GW might be.
There's also efficiency in terms of personnel. A small nuke and a large one both require three shifts worth of security guards, and three shifts worth of operators. And I think you're a person that wants vigorous oversight and regulation. If you had many small plants, you'd have NRC inspectors making rounds of several plants and dropping in now and then. With large plants, you can have an inspector that does one plant, and lives right there.
Of course all of the above is not an argument for nuclear vs something else. It's an argument that if you are going to choose nuclear for a certain number of gigawatts, a few big plants makes more sense than many small ones.
you are correct
(#286278)Of course you are correct in all that. The problem though, is that there are not corresponding efficiencies in safety, relative to size.
The larger the plant is, the more economical it becomes. But the same can't be said for safety. Larger plants are not safer plants. The safety features are simply redoubled versions of those on smaller plants, even though the increased size and complexity add new wrinkles to the issue of maintaining stable running. And potential damage to surroundings after accident only increases in with size.
Anyhow, a ten billion a pop, footed mostly by government, it seems that the demand for nuclear is not going to be too high.
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
I disagree on the safety
(#286294)The choice (and this doesn't apply just to nuclear) isn't between building a 1 GW plant or a 0.1 GW plant. If we need 1 GW, the choice is 1 GW or ten 0.1 GW plants.
Even if you think the probability and consequences of an accident are greater with the 1 GW plant, the X10 multiplier on the number of accidents is going to outweigh that. You mention complexity - ten plants means ten times the number of valves that can fail, ten times the number of people who can push the wrong button, etc.
A close analogy is bus travel vs car travel. Yeah, a bus is more complex, and a bus crash can kill 50 people instead of 5. It doesn't follow that bus travel is more dangerous than car travel.
I think you need to adjust your logic
(#286308)..for the impact of ideologies.
The market will not favor the large capacity model, absent hefty subsidies from and undertakings by big government to cover externalities. The free market would tend to prefer the smaller capacity units, wherein operators compete to provide the optimum level of safety gaurantees under the ever vigilant guidance of the invisible hand. Unless of course, the larger capacity model where to achieve a monopoly, largely free of nanny state interference, in which case that would be the way to go.
"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
it's a fair point to make
(#286329)I understand your point and agree that it's a fair point to make. I was thinking along other lines though. I agree there are economic benefits when a generator is scaled up. Now, what I doubt is that safety (of an individual reactor) enjoys the same kind of boost with the scaling up of a generator. I suspect that larger reactors are inherently more failure prone than smaller ones, due to complexity issues. Again on a reactor by reactor basis.
You are right that the impulse to scale up is driven by economic considerations. I suspect that if safety issues were front and foremost, the impulse to scale up wouldn't be there, notwithstanding your bus/car analogy.
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
Excellent comment. Gigantism is good
(#286319)is true for so many things - the American corporate way, one could say; so many industries could be similarly characterised. The big difference with nuclear is the regulation and supervision IMO. A nuclear sub, the paradigmatic small nuclear plant is very secure by the nature of its location.
literally anything can become right or wrong if the dominant class of the moment so wills it
Not going to happen
(#286179)The FP author says we need to deploy a nuclear power plant every day from now until 2050. (I assume if we want to maintain GDP growth and reach CO2 targets.)
Not going to happen.
You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it. - Ho Chi Minh
Not going to happen
(#286185)The FP author's numbers seem fishy, I'd like to see the details. 38 years x 365 plants is a lot of nuclear plants.
We can't build our way out the problem, but we'll be even farther from maintaining GDP growth and reaching CO2 targets if we keep going along the same lines.
You forget the magic of GDP
(#286197)tearing down old plants and building new ones increases GDP, even though it's more expensive than keeping the old plants. Accounting values fully depreciated assets (like over 20 years old for plants IIRC) at $0.
I blame it all on the Internet