I was pretty convinced by the Freakonomics abortion argument.

The best part of that book was the organizational analysis of street gangs, though. It's striking how the same pattern repeats itself in all forms of business. Ties in rather nicely to Harford's CEO pay theory in The Logic of Life, too.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

"Better" policing definitely had at least as much of an effect as more policing.

In my neighboring city of Lowell I had a chance to talk to two of the captains who were the lead implementation guys in a total change in the way they operate, away from "try to lock up criminals" to a focus on "community policing" (big buzzword now) first, get the criminals while you're doing it.

Downtown Lowell was a dump in the late 80s, early 90s.. HBO did a special called "High on Crack St" about the city. Stereotypical northern former industrial city, the mills that started the american industrial revolution were all empty, crappy schools, population of immigrants and minorities, lots of crime. Used to be the white cops would just roll into downtown every night, grab a drug dealer or two, lock them up and head back the next night. Problem was, there was always someone else there the next night. It wasn't working.

So they started doing "community policing" which I understand was also a big factor in the NYC turnaround. First thing, they rented office space in the middle of downtown and put a big LPD placard in the window. There to stay. They started holding community meetings to see what the residents were concerned about. Drugs? Muggings? No, turned out the biggest complaints were noise and vandalism. So they made those two things their biggest priorities to get buy-in from the neighborhood. Turned out, most of the violent offenders tended to make noise and vandalize as well, so they wound up getting the people they wanted anyways. Lead to a relationship with community leaders and buy-in from parents and other figures. Violent crime was down something like 40% within a a year or two and Lowell's on the upswing bigtime now, those abandoned mills have become loft condos and office space.

my confidence in social scientists. I didn't read every word but the whole thing seems to be an exercise in equating correlation with causation.

Are we really expected to believe that the quality and methods of policing don't matter as long as you have the numbers? You could hire a bunch of incompetents who don't show up for their shifts, and crime would go down?

IMO all the things mentioned are swamped by intangibles having to do with culture and perception. In particular, people commit crimes if they think other people are committing crimes. It's entirely possible that part of the decrease is simply due to people saying crime is decreasing, in the same way that a Fed or Treasury official can drive stock prices down merely by announcing that they will go down. The increased prison population could be a result of a culture that is less tolerant of crime, rather than a cause.

huge. The main reason for the massive carceral population here are legislated minimum sentences for drug offenses -- judges & juries are given no discretion in particular cases. Caught with a gram of crack? You're doing 15 years, period.

You have to start with that premise: 60% of inmates are nonviolent offenders. Then argue that it contributes to the drop in violent crime.

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH

Crime rates in countries that switched from leaded to unleaded gasoline have seen dips in violent crime that roughly coincide with children who have grown up without breathing in lead fumes reaching adolescence.

Also, a very large part of our prison population consists of people locked up for non-violent drug convictions. I have a hard time believing that that is keeping our streets safer.

Guard, protect and cherish your land, for there is no afterlife for a place that started out as Heaven.