Watching the Arctic melt.
In case folk were unaware of it (as I was), 2007 kicked off the International Polar Year, with its own website.
There was a considerable amount of concern last year, as the extent of Arctic ice fell to the lowest recorded level, although tempered with the usual warnings about a single year's data. 2008 is not expected to reach the same levels although it is likely to be the 2nd lowest which was previously 2005 - check out the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency site.
From a strictly scientific point of view, there are some benefits to the opening up of the Northwest Passage
Polarstern Research vessel transits the Northwest Passage for the first time ever
Bremerhaven, August 19th 2008. German research vessel Polarstern, operated by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association, transits the Northwest Passage for the first time. Polarstern left the port of Reykjavik on August 12th, sailed around Greenland on a southern course and is located right now at the beginning of the Northwest Passage. Its destination is the East Siberian Sea where geoscientific measurements at the junction between the Mendeleev Ridge and the East Siberian Shelf are at the focus of the participants of this expedition. The measurements striven for in the framework of the International Polar Year shall help to understand how the undersea ridges and basins were built. This expedition takes the researchers in 68 days around the North Pole because the return voyage is to lead via the Northeast Passage.
Cryosphere Today maps show the current state of affairs -
Edit: I'm still in the process of trying to understand whether the consensus of experts thinnks that a summer-ice-free Arctic is a Good or a Bad Thing. Perhaps others could help out.
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References -
It is automatically assumed that increasing temperature is causing more melt than normal. That is not true (or mostly not).
It is a change in circulation and anomalous wind patterns, possibly related to a shift in the Arctic Oscillation. NASA describes it here and here. More ice than usual is being blown out of the region into warmer waters.
Regarding temperature, some sane perspective is seriously needed. Since the early 1980s there has been an increase of 1 degree C in latitudes above 60N and/or 70N (chart). Note also that in the 1940s temperature was about the same or perhaps even a bit warmer.
(Caption: 70-90N [top] and 60-90N [bottom]. Left scale is 100th C. Lower green line relates to percent observational coverage [right scale]. Forgot what upper green line is. Prepared by William Connolly from Jones CRU data. I can't find original url. Sorry.)
Maybe I'm just not imaginative enough but I don't see how such a small change can melt the arctic, kill all the polar bears, and crack Greenland in half :-)
Another borderline myth is on the Northwest Passage. Normally about 1/2 of arctic ice disappears, while last year it was about 2/3rds. Don't quote me, but I'm reading that it has always been more a navigation challenge than there being actual passageway. With modern satellites, GPS and so on it is not much of a feat anymore.
--Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please --Mark Twain
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)The Arctic oscillation is a factor in year to year variations in sea ice butit's not the only factor. You can see a time series of the AO here
Arctic
oscillation
And a time series of the sea ice extent here
Long term Arctic sea ice extent
While the big melt last year was in large part due to the AO the stage for that meltoff was set by the long term effects of global warming. You can see that in the summer ice figures which show a long term decline going back to the 50's.
The two links you posted are from the same study. If you read a little more carefully you'll see that the
y don't claim that global warming is unrelated to the the ice melting.
Your comment about the effect of a 1 degree Celsius temperature change is just silly. That's almost 2 degrees F and that makes a big difference when you're close to the melting point of snow or ice. The difference between 31 and 33 degrees F is a block of ice or a puddle of water or between a rainstorm and a blizzard.
P.S. It looks like this year is going to be very close to last year in termsof the size of the melt. The pattern of melting is different from last year but the total size of the melt is very close.
Current arctic sea ice
extent
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| parent )c'mon, you're the physics expert. I can understand the effect of decreasing albedo on AGW, but what we want to know is what the real problems are going to be from a summer-ice-free state in the Arctic.
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| parent )I'll write something up. The NYTimes did an excellent article a little while back discussing some of the political implications of an ice free arctic as well and I'll see if I can find the link to that.
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| parent )Check out what NASA report actually says. The problem is not that global warming is causing the Arctic to melt.
The point is that the Arctic ice melting is making the situation of AGW worse. This is because the Arctic ice cover is responsible for reflection of the summer sunlight away from the oceans. Lack of ice cover means increased heating of the oceans. That's one of the Bad things.
Of course, one of the Good things is that there is now increased access to the Arctic hydrocarbon deposits. This means we can continue with hydrocarbon based energy for longer and therefore increase the atmospheric CO2 content further, and so the experiment with increasing atmospheric GHGs can go on for longer in this century.
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| parent )How many media articles have properly stated what NASA actually says? I could count the articles on my left hand -- provided I had a major chain saw accident in my youth.
Most believe the Arctic is melting because of temperature, pure and simple.
Generally I am happy that we agree :)
--Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please --Mark Twain
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| parent )You recommended me a book not long ago.
Here's one I can whole-heartedly recommend back.
The Discovery of Slowness
It's a fictionalized (but mostly true) biography of Sir John Franklin, arctic explorer.
Franklin's idea of making the North West passage was to freeze the ship into the ice pack and let her drift through the passage. It was a catastrophic end to a brilliant career.
He'd been at the battle of Trafalgar, the battle of New Orleans, sailed under Mathew Flinders and his cat, and served a term as governor of Tasmania. Incidentally, Flinders was captured by the French, separated from his beloved Trim and imprisoned. When released, only the pelt was returned, the rest having been eaten. Melbourne was originally named after Trim, who in turn was named after the butler in Tristram Shandy.
--Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just
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)I'm all in favour of not pushing - my kids for example - for achievements.
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| parent )with the bad probably outweighing the good. More importantly it will raise a lot of new issues.
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)I'd rather watch grass grow. More exciting.
I think humans have had some hand in AGW, but as to how much, I can't tell. Temperatures have gone down the last several years (since 1998-1999, I believe) and the Antarctic ice pack has grown. Sounds like less ice in the arctic is bad for polar bears, but as for other wildlife, I haven't heard.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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)For a guy who claims to be concerned about security and geopolitics you're seriously missing the boat here. An ice free arctic has huge security implications for the US. And if some geologists are correct the arctic ocean basin is the last frontier when it comes to large deposits of oil and natural gas. If melting ice makes another Middle East at the top of the world accessible we'll see the Great Game all over again.
P.S. Not sure where you got the idea the temperatures have gone down either but conservatives in general seem to have a problem understanding the concept that a time series can have a trend without being monotonic.
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| parent )so there's a conspiracy to melt the polar ice cap because it's all about oil?
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )the US Navy takes the issue of melting arctic ice quite seriously and is planning for it now. They initially didn't think it would be an issue for 20 or 30 more years but the pace of melting has speeded up so rapidly that it looks like it will have to be dealt with much sooner.
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| parent )You never know about those Russians and they did use a submarine to plant a flag on the sea bottom at the North Pole to claim it for themselves. Maybe they have giant bunsen burners down there! But whatever the reason the fact is that the arctic ice cap is melting. And outside of wingnuttia it's clear that it will have some serious national security implications. Besides potential hydrocarbon deposits the opening of both a Northwest and a Northeast passage has lots of ramifications for shipping lanes.
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| parent )Don't tell me he's involved in this. T Boone Pickens is just about all I can take of that type.
--In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
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| parent )I'm still trying to understand. You're the physics prof here.
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| parent )-0-
--In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
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| parent )While I'm certainly no physics prof, I have heard that the recession of the Arctic ice cap itself will have relatively less effect on ocean currents in general: something to do, I think, with the fact that the north polar region is surrounded by landmasses; so the currents tend to flow in a circle. I think.
The real potential disruption, I have read, is in the possible melt-off of the Greenland ice sheets: the increased flow of cold fresh water there, I think, does have the potential to shift the Gulf Stream in one direction or another. With possible dire results for Northern Europe, if it shifts too drastically.
Of course, IANAClimatologist: corrections will be graciously accepted.
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| parent )Has more to do with current changes. I don't know what that means, exactly; just trying to sound learned.
--In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
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| parent )It's just irrelevant; national security is only part of the conversation insofar as it can be manipulated to advance the Wingnut Agenda.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )What precisely is the "Wingnut Agenda" for melting the polar ice cap? You seem to have some theories about it.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )That's kind of my point. There isn't one -- it can't be used to fight the culture war, so it's irrelevant. Trust me, as soon as there is a national security issue to be demagogued without solving, McCain's successor will be sure to pass along how to earn some camel bux online.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Floater wrote that, "And outside of wingnuttia it's clear that it will have some serious national security implications."
Your response was "it's clear in wingnuttia, too"
But then in your follow-up response you said "there isn't one", a "wingnuttia" agenda, that is. Sounds contradictory.
BTW, what exactly is "wingnuttia" and who are in it? Just wondering.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )Sorry, man. Maybe Bizarro Rush Limbaugh can explain what I meant, because I obviously cannot get any information across to you in this format.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )And you failed to answer my question, as you commonly do. But hey, the "bored" angle is a good one.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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| parent )The question implied total incomprehension of what I wrote before. I can't seem get from where I am to where you are, and it's not because I'm not trying from this end.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )-o-o-
--In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
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| parent )with something it is important not to comprehend.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )with someone who gives a hoot.
--In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
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| parent ).
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )You guys shhhhuuuure do fight nasty out there in ol Hawaii
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| parent )RONALD REAGAN!
from space.
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| parent )are increasing
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)Geesh - who comes up with these names??
Actually, it's a smart move: cruise ships carrying tourists through the Fabled Northwest Passage may make for interesting feature copy, but the real problems are going to arise in the less-glamorous, but economically valuable container-ship traffic; which will only be on the increase when/if the Arctic icecap starts to retreat on a regular basis.
The New York Times ran an article a little while ago (extrapolating from the record 2007 retreat, I think) on this very subject; complete with maps showing that utilizing the NWP cut a significant amount of time/distance off shipping routes from the Far East to Eastern North America: also from Russia to just about everywhere.
Bolstering emergency-response/security/public health capabilities in the Canadian Arctic is a great idea: these new shipping lanes run through/past virtually uninhabited (and often inaccessible) regions way the hell far from anyplace: the more practice the responders get the better.
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| parent )Don't look the song up if you haven't already heard it; otherwise you'll just try to pay me back in a way I don't suspect.
--In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
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| parent )It's Inuit for polar bear. Sounds like a traditional military op name with a dash of PC added. It seems our northern neighbours have yet to descend to infomercial-level military PR.
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| parent )we'd call it "Operation Freedom Passage" or "Operation Arctic Liberty" or some such. You need to work on those PR skills. :)
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )because I know you love these so much, here's another one. My favorite quote - The earth is NOT TILTED 23.45°degrees....It is UPRIGHT as God created man to walk UPRIGHT.
The section on Einstein is also pretty good, it apparently accepts the theory of luminiferous aether.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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)Way to kill my belief in the luminiferous aether, HankP!! And on a Monday too! Nice one! Next time how 'bout a **SPOILER ALERT** warning. Sheesh
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )I guess you shouldn't read this, then. Maybe we can ask PM to look this guy up.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Hey, Hank - should we tell Elagabalus about the phogiston, too?
Or will it upset him, so soon after the luminiferous aether?
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| parent )that you meant phlogiston.
'cuz if you were trying to say that fogeyston isn't real, my entire retirement plan is kaput.
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )by your ability to ferret these sites out. You're not secretly building these sites for them, are you?
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| parent )