Russian Tanks Clang & Clank Again In Re-Play of Prague and Budapest


I don't really expect anyone to be as upset by the sight of real Russian Tanks on the Move to crush Georgian Troops, but the blood does rise, the muscles tighten...give me an anti-tank rocket and a clear field of fire....!

Prague, the Prague Spring that was bringing liberal humanism to the crushed spirit of the peoples of Eastern Europe, throwing off the boot of the Russian on the neck of the people....to arms, to arms...to the barricades, let this not be a bloody repeat of the crushing of the Hungarians in Budapest by the Russian Monster!

Youtube has disabled embedding...but here's the footage as a link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22eLrkcG68w

At live link, there is more:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0c7_1218202976

I was too young to fight in Budapest...but my family had Hungarian friends and eventually I came to become good friends with refugees from the The Russian Murderers.

In 1968, I was in the Army, but watched helplessly as the that brief moment of hope known as the Prague Spring was crushed out...

And again, the Russian Beast marches!

The West sits passively by.

(BTW, is this how young Saudi men and Yemeni feel seeing Americans tramp across their lands?)

Hummmm

Best Wishes, (the Warrior in Waiting)

Traveller

Edit: Some pretty decent pictures are here at Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/articleslideshow?articleId=USL76804...
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Double-plus good Balloon Juice comment snark (#108918)
by Bill White

When McCain heard the news this morning (Russia attacks Georgia) he immediately canceled his trip to Atlanta.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

According to this article (#108836)
by Kierkegaard

the war's basically our fault: http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/did-us-military.html

From what I've read, this overstates the case by some bit, but perhaps it's why the Georgians claim they've already shot down two planes, and why CNN news footage features shots of burning Russian tanks.

I have no problem supporting the rights of any sovereign nation to resist Russian invasion. It may be true, as many commenters here assert, that they're all just a bunch of gangsters anyway, including Georgia's American-schooled lawyer-president (now who does that remind me of?), but South Ossetia, regardless of its ethnic make-up, is a part of Georgia, not Russia. Kinda like New Mexico is a part of the US, and not, you know, Mexico?

So the cheerleading here for Russia is getting, well... all too familiar. I guess hardcore Lefties never get over their first fascist crush. Thought you guys were all infatuated with China. Stick to one man-crush at a time.

"Basically our fault"?? (#108849)
by Jay C

Kierk, I think that that reading of the linked Wired piece may be just slightly on the biased side. Pointing out that the US has (since the early 1990s) equipped and trained the Georgian military - up to and including their participation in the Iraq campaign - isn't the same as casting blame or assigning responsibility. Whether or not the US' boosting Georgia's military capacities is/was a good idea or not is another topic of discussion: but from some info in the Wired links (mainly DoD, I see!) it doesn't sound as if the outbreak of hostilities could really have come as that much of a surprise. To the US, anyway.

And yeah, what Floater said: where's the "cheerleading here for Russia"? Not many hardcore Russophiles lurking in The Forvm AFAICT.

OK, I admit it (#108852)
by Kierkegaard

I was just playing wih you guys. Sometimes it's just too much fun to make outrageous insinuations and see who self-identifies. Of course, back in the days of Potash or whatever his name was, your assertion about non-Marxists here on the site wouldn't hold water...

As for 'Russophiles': any true Russophile--and quite a few Russian advocates of democracy--are hoping that a black eye from the Georgians is what topples Putin.

Tbilisi is now claiming it's shot down 4 planes. I doubt it, but if true, that must be scaring the hell out of the Russian military.

K: more on the Russia/Georgia "blame" -ADD (#108868)
by Jay C

Lotsa decent commentary around: mostly already linked: but here's a fairly balanced piece from Robert Farley at Lawyers, Guns & Money .

But I also found a slightly-more-nuanced analysis from Cernig at Newshoggers . Nut graf:

That the US isn't all that interested in backing Georgia with military force may have been predictable to all but the Georgian leadership - but the Bush Administration must take the blame for that leadership's misapprehension of US intentions. They could have told the Georgians in no uncertain terms that they weren't worth the almost-certainty of the entirety of NATO having to go to war with Russia over but instead they mollycoddled and talked up Georgia's membership efforts even when allies like Sarkozy of France and Germany's Merkel were pointing out the obvious.

Why anyone thought offering Georgia membership in NATO was a good idea in the first place baffles me - what is fundamentally ethnic strife in regions like the Caucasus is, IMHO, a hornet's nest we should steer well clear of. But then, as a humble blog-commenter, I don't have a lot of input into setting US foreign policy. More's the pity.

UPDATE More Farley on Ossetia HERE . RTWT.

What on earth are you talking about? (#108840)
by Floater

Recognizing reality is not the same as cheerleading. However much we may want to do something about South Ossetia (or Tibet) there is very little that we can do. I don't think there are any cheerleaders for Russia here.

Yup (#108841)
by HankP

I was going to say, when that noted conservative Bill White says that he'd like to drop j-dams on Russian tanks and that wild eyed liberal Scott Eiland says it would be wise to stick to denunciation and proposed sanctions for now, where's this supposed love for Russia coming from?

You've got Georgia which wants to stay independent of Russia and South Ossetia which wants to become independent of Georgia. I'm pretty sure poking our fingers in the middle of that is not the wisest course of action right now.

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I blame it all on the Internet

Scott hasn't been himself lately (#108843)
by Floater

he almost seems (dare I say it) pleasant and reasonable.

Some Men When Elevated to the Halls of Great Power.... (#108846)
by Traveller

...wear their burden quite well...Mr. M. Scott Eiland seems to be one of the exceptional few that doesn't grow drunk with the draught of power.

Good on 'em is all I can say.

Traveller

Just wait (#108850)
by HankP

catchy seemed reasonable too, until right up before the election when he proposed "delayed elections" and everything else he could to hold onto power.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Yes, prying catchy's fingers from the sceptre (#108891)
by Jordan

was one of the greater trials of my adult life thus far. It went down something like this.

CATCHY:
I don't have to run again, do I?

TOMSYL, JORDAN:
Uh, guess not.

CATCHY:
Well, I'll check you suckers later.

TOMSYL, JORDAN:
But, but...what will we do when actual decisions have to be made?

CATCHY:
SEP, motherf@#)$rs!

Etc.

--

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH

Says the guy who got re-elected (#108894)
by HankP

I got my eye on you, man. I don't want you and tomsyl retreating to a bunker at the next elections.

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I blame it all on the Internet

You'll notice tomsyl & I haven't been commenting (#108899)
by Jordan

much lately. One of us is deeply involved in a deal that will keep the western hemisphere locked into fossil fuels for another five decades. The other's starting a modeling agency/slash luxury hotel-casino/slash adult film franchise...I'll let you guys guess who's who. Such are the burdens of a large expense account.

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Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH

Indeed (#108892)
by M Scott Eiland

Mine, in this case.

Oh well--vengeance is best served as front-paging every Diplomacy diary that comes up for the next six months. . .]:-)

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Some context for this dispute (#108793)
by Bill White

Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally, has about 2,000 troops in Iraq, making it the third-largest contributor to coalition forces after the U.S. and Britain. Saakashvili told CNN the troops would be called home Saturday in the face of the South Ossetia fighting.

A senior U.S. defense official said Georgian authorities have asked the United States for help getting their troops out of Iraq. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions have been private, said no formal decision has been made on whether to support the departure, but said it is likely the U.S. will do so.

Do we offer logistical support in getting those Georgian soldiers home?

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Absolutely (#108873)
by M Scott Eiland

We're not in a position to help much directly at least for the moment, but helping an ally by shipping their own troops home ASAP is a matter of honor--and I'll have no problem if our forces obliterate any Russian units that try to stop it.

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Insane (#108878)
by HankP

the absolute last thing we want in the world right now is armed conflict between the US and Russia. I know you have no problems with the US obliterating small countries that are relatively defenseless, but to pull that kind of stuff against a country with thousands of nuclear warheads and the second most advanced delivery systems in the world is the definition of insanity.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

If They Shoot At Us First. . . (#108880)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .it'll be them starting it, won't it? The United States has obligations to its allies, and they should keep them--and they should not tolerate any Russian interference with those obligations, particularly if it involves shooting at our people.

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Who cares who shoots 1st? (#108887)
by Spartacvs

Most sentient beings would rightly be concerned that the two nuclear superpowers do not square off over something so minor as the future of South Ossetia.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Then It Would Be Advisable. . . (#108890)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .for the Russians not to shoot at our planes if Georgia requests that we agree to ferry their troops back from Iraq, or that is precisely what will happen--as the principle of aiding US allies in need will also be at stake.

As for "most sentient beings," you seem to be enjoying living on the edge tonight. Comment, not the commenter.

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I'm not sanguine that a few rogue Georgians (#108910)
by Bill White

wouldn't shoot at that C-5 while others loudly assert the Russians did it.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

If Properly Escorted. . . (#108912)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .the result of that would be a bunch of obliterated Georgian troops and no provocation to the Russians. Presumably, Georgia would not press for compensation under the circumstances.

--

Perhaps, but if we too openly side with Georgia (#108916)
by Bill White

and if Georgia loses this war our prestige suffers. In for a dime, in for a dollar.

Georgia of course cannot win if Russia chooses to act with sufficient force. And it also looks like Georgia tipped over the apple cart first.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Curiously, I'm sorta glad Condi Rice is at State now. (#108947)
by BlaiseP

She's on very good terms with the Russians and speaks superb Russian. Russia won't bluff her. Personally I find her a loathsome little Bush toady, but this might be her finest hour. She's a Russia specialist, and will construct the face-saving framework required for getting everyone's nose back into joint.

I can agree with that to the extent (#108949)
by Bill White

that Condi Rice probably can smooth over and conceal what will likely be a serious set-back for Dick Cheney's central Asian strategy. Bush & Putin will end up all smiles, with those two provinces securely outside of Georgian control.

I note that Bush called for a return to the 6 Aug 08 status quo. A date prior to the Georgian move on South Ossetia.

But behind the scenes the Cheney-ites will be livid at Rice, and Bush.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

That's a pretty good read of the situation. (#108950)
by BlaiseP

This is certainly a setback for the Cheney-ites, that had not occurred to me. Bush won't trust anyone but Rice with this hot potato: for once, she'll get to do a good job: this is her bailiwick, and she'll write every word coming out of Bush's ignorant mouth on this subject.

Agreed (#108897)
by Spartacvs

And the US would do equally well not to provoke a confrontation, by say stupidly shipping weapons into the war zone as some have suggested. Which I believe to your credit you already stated would be counterproductive.

As to posting rules, forgive me if I get the impression from your comments to me specifically, that you seem to be more than a little eager for your 1st scalp and scanning the line with a little too keen an eye than might be justified by the tenor of the conversation. The previous management did a great job without becoming too overbearing, lets not spoil it.

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GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Your Opinion Is Noted (#108898)
by M Scott Eiland

My warning stands. If the trend continues, I'll be having a conversation with Tomsyl and Jordan on the matter.

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Well from my perspective (#108914)
by Spartacvs

that conversation would be most welcome and hopefully helpful in clarifying your duties and responsibilities as a moderator.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

What I don't get (#108893)
by HankP

is why you seem to desire conflict so much. It just doesn't make any sense.

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I blame it all on the Internet

When the tribes on the border (#108945)
by Kierkegaard

are at war with each other, Rome remains at peace.

Not always. There's always a Vercingetorix in there (#108948)
by BlaiseP

who comes out on top in those fights. That's what's also happening with the Taliban/Pashtun mess by the way. There's always some Khan in the making, and nothing sorts them out faster than a few tussles for King of the Hill.

It's Not A Matter Of Desiring It. . . (#108895)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .it's a matter of not automatically avoiding it. If the Russians don't interfere with our planes taking the Georgian troops back home, fine. If they do, then they can suffer the consequences. The first option is preferable, the second is acceptable.

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Uh huh (#108883)
by HankP

because news reports about what happens in battle zones are always 100% accurate. Besides, after the last 8 years everyone will automatically believe what the US says, right?

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I blame it all on the Internet

Russian Credibility Isn't Exactly. . . (#108884)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .at an all time high at the moment. You'd better hope that Obama isn't impolitic enough to suggest that our military is lying if an incident *does* occur--it'll be another reminder of the stature gap on this sort of thing between himself and McCain.

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With McCain staffers having been paid by the govt of Georgia (#108911)
by Bill White

Why should we trust what they say, either?

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Crickets (nt) (#108994)
by brendanm98

--

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

I thnk most Americans are becoming more aware (#108900)
by Spartacvs

of the stature gap between Obama and McCain. They perhaps just haven't quite rationalized it yet, give it time and more exposure to the new McCain of '08 and they will.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

The stature gap. (#108889)
by Jordan

I hope you don't think McCain's in for a penny, in for a pound support of the Iraq idiocy gives him credibility with average Americans, who have long since figured out the WMD boondoggle.

--

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH

A longing for a return to simpler times (#108879)
by Spartacvs

when the Gipper supposedly filled the stage, I suspect.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

More like the stone age (#108882)
by HankP

if anybody makes a mistake.

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I blame it all on the Internet

Posting Rules (#108881)
by M Scott Eiland

Comment, not the commenter.

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Well, unless it's been edited... (#109057)
by M Aurelius

...the comment does refer to the comment, and not the commenter. This was my first reading, by the way. I think your subjective position as the recipient got the better of you. I've been there.

"A longing" is not "you are longing". "A longing" is how one might describe a piece of writing, cinema, or other art representing a some lost better past in the face of the present.

M Scott, as another "M" guy with a too-fast trigger finger, let me give you some hard-earned advice: read twice, count to ten, etc. If there is ambiguity, hold your fire. The villagers will burn you at the stake if you don't.

--

Of course not!

Not even the recipient (#109067)
by Spartacvs

The comment concerned Scott's comment but was addressed to HankP's comment not Scott's.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Thanks For The Input (#109061)
by M Scott Eiland

I'm not going to suspend anyone--even temporarily--without getting the go-ahead from the others, so I don't think we'll have a repeat of the situation you're recalling.

As for ambiguity--past history is a factor in considering the intent of comments, and as the commenter in question has admitted in the past twenty four hours--there is a history of personally directed comments to be considered in evaluating intent. Still, nothing will happen without agreement of the others, so I'm going to use my own instincts with regard to warning--and anyone receiving such a warning will have to decide whether I'm going to seek or get backup regarding them.

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Ah yes... (#109246)
by M Aurelius

Considering past history will get you into trouble with surprising speed.

Well, you'll figure it out eventually. A good thing you won't act without consultation. That will definitely help.

--

Of course not!

It Certainly Has Here (#109249)
by M Scott Eiland

Blaise can come back whenever he wants, as long as he follows the rules. If he doesn't, that matter can be adjudicated by the full troika with due deliberation. Storming off in a snit without any action having been taken by the troika--with or without GBCW theatrics--is not addressed by the rules.

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It was my impresson that your comment (#108885)
by Spartacvs

was intended to convey longing for a return to simpler times
when the Gipper supposedly filled the stage.

Posting rules?

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Not What You Said. . . (#108888)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .but I'll accept that as a hasty retraction and rephrasing on this occasion.

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No retraction required (#108902)
by Spartacvs

Hank characterized your comment as insane , I merely provided a possible explanation mitigating the insanity charge and no haste was involved.

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GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

The Words "Comment" And "Convey". . . (#108903)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .were not present in your original comment, as anyone reading it could testify to. Again, I'll accept the walkback, but it *is* a walkback.

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Wel if that suits your purposes then fine (#108906)
by Spartacvs

but I assure you it was never my intention to walkback anything.

Further, I find it hard to reconcile your apparent problem with my comment, given that you apparently have no problem with a comment which explicitly states "I know you have no problems with the US obliterating small countries that are relatively defenseless".

One rule for one, one rule for all. Aspire to it.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Hey. . . (#108908)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .if you want to try to convince Tomsyl and Jordan to suspend Hank, be my guest. It'll really be funny.

In the meantime, worry about your own comments.

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ROFL (#108913)
by Spartacvs

Hank's protected but if we riff off of Hank's comments we are fair game.

Noted.

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GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

OK, I apologize for my comment if it caused any problem nt (#108919)
by HankP

--

I blame it all on the Internet

No problem (#108921)
by Spartacvs

Just trying to establish the parameters of my free speech zone with the new member of management.

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GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Of course! (#108801)
by M Aurelius

I don't even see where the doubt on this question could come from.

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Of course not!

In for a dime, in for a dollar? (#108831)
by Bill White

The opposite side of the coin? If we fail to help Georgia are we guilty f ingratitude for their sacrifices in Iraq?

Georgian independence is a priority US interest. I agree 100%.

Of course we help those Georgian soldiers return home. But how? Do we use our C-5 Galaxy air transports to fly them home? With full battle kit? Perhaps augmented with items which just happen to be left lying around the C-5? Such as shoulder fired anti-air missiles? But then if those same soldiers enter Ossetia and kill Russian soldiers, perhaps there shall be certain complications.

= = =

Bigger picture, given the following:

Ossetia - Kosovo - Kurdistan - The Basque - Ulster - Palestine & Israel

We need a conceptual framework that acknowledges the fading of the system of nation states established at the Peace of Westphalia.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

Ingratitude is a start.... (#108870)
by M Aurelius

...but also self-interest. We won't get much help in the future if we turn our backs on those who help us. Not that we've never done that, unfortunately. But it's just plain bad policy.

Yes we use our C-5.

No we don't leave shoulder-fired missiles lying around. That can be traced back to us. We can give them untraceable assets, such as intelligence, knowledge. But it is not in our interest for this thing to turn into a major hot war. Nor, I think, is it in Georgia's interest.

--

Of course not!

Ossetia - Kosovo - Kurdistan - The Basque - (#108854)
by Username

The Federative Republic of Silicon Valley! Of course, we'd want to establish freedom of movement and trade agreements with our cousin to the north, the Progressive Confederacy of San Franciscan States.

"The West sits passively by" (#108743)
by HankP

Yeah, seems like we've been moving back into the "spheres of influence" model of foreign relations for a while now, so I doubt you'll see anything other than diplomatic denunciations over this. Also, as athenas owl points out, this is not really a good place to draw a line in the sand, as none of the involved parties have particularly clean hands.

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I blame it all on the Internet

I'm With You Hank, and Athena Also...NT (#108748)
by Traveller

Traveller

How does the Georgian's decision to shell Tskhinvali.. (#108712)
by athenas owl

figure into this? Not wishing to be seen as a Russian apologist, but the Georgians did shell the "South Ossetian" capital before the Russians moved in, didn't they? It was a gamble that may have backfired.

And When we Shelled Baghdad...The Russians had a Right.... (#108723)
by Traveller

...to intervene?

Best Wishes, Traveller

Honestly, what a bloody (#108710)
by Steve Peterson

Honestly, what a bloody mess.

South Ossetia, likely stoked by some Russian action, wants to secede from Georgia -- Russians up the tension by playing war games around the area -- Georgia tries to prevent Ossetian secession through force of arms -- and now there's open warfare.

BBC News Article

It'd be foolish for anyone outside the area to put their kids in the middle of this fight.

--

Steven Palmer Peterson

When Russia Impossed the Postal Embargo Last Year.... (#108717)
by Traveller

...I felt that it was a serious enough issue for a Security Council debate...but no one wants to go up against the Bear or irritate it either.

(Actually, I was unaware that a Postal Embargo was even possible....or legal. Goes to show how much I know).

Russia will do as she wishes...I can only say thank God for the Expansion of NATO. There is nothing that can be done about Georgia, nor any aide given by the West...

But there is a new Russia...I guess that's all I'm noting and, I see that there is quite a bit on this in the Open Thread....but heck, I'll leave this here.

Alas, another war in which I will again, (again!), not be invited to participate.

(Old habits die hard, hun?)

Best Wishes, Traveller

You're making it all about (#108725)
by Steve Peterson

You're making it all about Russia -- but the trigger is South Ossetia trying to exert its independence from Georgia.

What the Ossetians want doesn't matter?

--

Steven Palmer Peterson

Saakashvili is no Dubcek. (#108706)
by hobbesist

And what do you think the West be doing, anyway? On what grounds? With what authority?

--

Brevis esse laboro, obscurus fio.

I think we should be supplying (#108713)
by Kierkegaard

the Georgians with hand-held missiles, just like we did the Afghans. The Russians have proved time and again they are a cancer on the planet. Time for a little chemo. Before radio is needed.

Then Russia just cuts back a little bit on oil production (#108832)
by Floater

Putin see's energy as a weapon and he's got some mighty big guns.

Natural gas for Europe as well (#108835)
by Bill White

Putin is holding a stronger hand than we might care to admit.

Viscerally, however, I'd like to start dropping JDAMs on those Russian tanks. Even if Dana Carvey doing Bush 41 is spot on:

Wouldn't be prudent . . .

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

JDAMs are no good on tanks. (#108886)
by M Aurelius

Unless the tanks have been sitting there for hours.

JDAMs are blind. Accurate, but blind. They are for things that don't move.

--

Of course not!

Point taken (#109295)
by Bill White

Also, given Russian local air superiority getting anything in there will be difficult.

Do we even have any viable military options? If we were so inclined?

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

That Would Take A While. . . (#108810)
by M Scott Eiland

. . .even if we thought it was a good idea--might as well go the condemnation and threatened sanctions route first, and see how Putin reacts.

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Kinda like we're doing with Iran? (#108828)
by Kierkegaard

No, we need to arm the Georgians. You notice all the snarky Iraq references in this thread along the lines of 'Did the Russians intervene when we invaded Iraq?' In point of fact, they intervened mightily right up until the day we did--or has everyone else forgotten the (useless) Russian air defense systems, the SCUDS, the airlift of Russian advisors, techs, and soldiers on the eve of our invasion, and the enormous diplomatic convoy that spirited Iraqis and their files into Syria as soon as we did? I haven't. And I see them doing exactly the same thing in Iran and elsewhere. They make trouble for us, we make trouble for them. That's how the 'great game' is played.

Just one more reason (#108729)
by hobbesist

... you won't be getting my vote this November, K. ;^D

--

Brevis esse laboro, obscurus fio.

Did that work out so well in the end? (#108722)
by athenas owl

Speaking of Mujahideen...the Arab (Saudi for example) "freedom fighters" that are part of the "Caucasus Emirate" include Ossetia in their nifty emirate. They have certainly spread their fair share of mayhem throughout the region.

These Arab Mujahideen got their training fighting Russia in Afghanistan, alongside that other guy..what is his name? Oh yeah, Osama Bin Laden.

You seem confused-- (#108742)
by Kierkegaard

If the so-called 'South Ossetians' are part of the Islamist 'emirate', all the more reason for us to be backing the Georgians in reclaiming their own territory.

As for 'how well it worked out in the end?' It worked out great. At the cost of a few thousand Stingers and 3,000 dead in the WTC bombing, we got the breakup of the USSR, which began with its humiliating defeat in Afghanistan. Or do you think that the USSR would have broken up on its own from the pressure of some internal 'Orange Power'? Not as long as it had tanks. Which just brings us back to today's topic.

I do, in fact. (#108814)
by M Aurelius

Or do you think that the USSR would have broken up on its own from the pressure of some internal 'Orange Power'?

It was Walkman power. The Russians, the powerful Russians, knew it was all over when their people started visiting the West, and Westerners started visiting them, noticed the growing gap in the types and quantities of consumer goods available. This started with Khrushchev's visit to the US, which included a famous stop at a supermarket, and grew harder to explain away as the differences increased, and information and people moved more freely (you can thank detente for that, but perhaps you won't).

Afghanistan was never more than a sideshow to the overall scheme of things. It was discouraging, but every Russian could say that we had the same problem in Viet-Nam. It is ludicrous to think that Afghanistan broke the will of the Soviet leadership, or even the people.

The real issue was that their economy sucked. It gradually dawned on them that they had no way to fix it, and it was a constant irritant to the eternally line-bound population. Why else would they give a dove like Gorbachev any power? People forget that his main goal was to restructure the economy while keeping it nominally communist. Increased political freedom was just an element of that. The Chinese got the formula right, and kept their regime. Had the USSR lasted 10 more years, it might have done the same.

It was the economy. It wasn't even a bread/butter issue. Their economy was useless even without spending a dime on the military, because the market was banned from it. The incentives were either wrong or absent. It just could not work.

--

Of course not!

And yet here we are..now...in Afghanistan... (#108754)
by athenas owl

fighting some of the very same people we armed back then to our own great cost in terrorism and war. The USSR got it's ass (can I say that here?) handed to it in Afghanistan, but then it was compared to our own little dust up a few years before. Yet we didn't collapse..the USSR did for a number of reasons.

I wasn't saying that the South Ossetians wanted to be in the "emirate", but the same folks that proclaim the existence of the Emirate are certainly not freedom loving folks free of outside influence themselves. They are expansionist themselves. Look up the Arab Mujahidden of Chechnya...Afghanistan the beginning for these guys.

It's a complicated mess...Georgia is no innocent in this either. They are just much smaller and so will likely lose. My main concern is that the radical "freedom fighters" in the region don't get another foothold. These are not heroes or good guys.

Never said they were (#108760)
by Kierkegaard

What I advocate is realpolitik as practiced down through the ages. When your enemy becomes mired down in a bog, discreetly keep pumping mud into it. As the Russians are doing to us in Iran and to the Israelis in Syria. Now they've stuck a foot into Georgia, it's our turn for a little pay-back.

Geography (#108765)
by athenas owl

Iran, Syria and any other small and/or strategically important country that is very close to Russia.

Pay back for what? Our misfortune to have interests and starting a war in nations that are on the other side of the world from us?

So it's OK (#108766)
by Kierkegaard

if we invade Cuba?

Not what I am saying at all.. (#108773)
by athenas owl

though it would make more sense than invading Iraq. I suppose our invasiion of tiny Grenada or Panama might comparable..

I am just struck by your use of the term "pay back"..again for what? Russia looking out for it's own "local" interests. We are the outsiders...again, not condoning Russia, just noting that "pay back" seems odd.

Without addressing the morality of it (#108768)
by HankP

in practical terms I don't think any other nation would actually do anything about it except release some strongly worded communiques.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Counterfactuals are so difficult! (#108753)
by Gabriel

:)

But I suspect that the USSR would have already collapsed as a direct non-nuclear threat (they remain a nuclear threat, that has not changed), Stingers or no Stingers, for simple economic reasons.

--

This place is my vacation.

One would have said the same thing about North Korea (#108757)
by Kierkegaard

But one would have been wrong. I'm afraid it's a well-known pattern throughout history that an empire only collapses after a disastrous foreign adventure.

Iraq (#108802)
by Spartacvs
Actually one would have been right (#108764)
by Gabriel

Since NK is not much a military threat to the US, which was my point. A single of our nukes, it it came to that, would wipe out the NK army. And every year that goes by SK becomes (relatively) stronger.

--

This place is my vacation.

No one wouldn't (#108767)
by Kierkegaard

North Korea's regime is intact, with one million men under arms, and is developing nuclear arms which it has attempted to sell to other countries.

So what? (#108769)
by Gabriel

Why would the US care about the million men under arms? They represent zero threat to the US. What are they going to do, swim over to CA?

Notice that I've been talking about non-nuclear threats. If you focus on nuclear threats then we did not win any war against the USSR since the successor state, Russia, still has more than enough nukes to wipe the US.

--

This place is my vacation.

You want to start arming (#108720)
by Steve Peterson

You want to start arming sides in this? From the BBC article:

In the twilight of the Soviet Union, as Georgian nationalist Zviad Gamsakhurdia came to prominence in Tbilisi, South Ossetia too flexed its separatist muscles. Soviet forces were sent to keep the peace in late 1989 following violent clashes between Georgians and Ossetians in the capital, Tskhinvali. Violence flared again as South Ossetia declared its intention to secede from Georgia in 1990 and, the following year, effective independence.

And later in the article:

It came as no surprise when South Ossetians voted overwhelmingly in favour of restating their demand for independence from Tbilisi in an unrecognised referendum in November 2006. A simultaneous referendum among the region's ethnic Georgians voted just as emphatically to stay with Tbilisi. Compromise seems a long way off.

Tensions are never far from the surface and violence flares sporadically. In August 2008, heavy fighting erupted between Georgian troopos and separatist forces, following nearly a week of clashes. The fighting deepened fears of a full-blown war in the Caucasus.

--

Steven Palmer Peterson

Mr. Peterson, You Make Good Points, But I am More About.... (#108738)
by Traveller

...the emotional reaction to the sound of boots on the march.

I think that this has emotional resonance in....Georgian's and of course, the Vermin Soldiers of Mother Russia...lol

To arms, to arms....is a siren song...you personally may not hear it, but sing she does.

Best Wishes, Traveller

I can definitely understand (#108761)
by Steve Peterson

I can definitely understand that.

My main concern is that there are probably a whole lot of Ossetians who feel that way about Georgian tanks.

It's diving into the middle of a domestic fight -- and if I recall correctly, those are the situations where innocent, well-meaning cops are most likely to get themselves stabbed, shot, or otherwise put in the hospital.

--

Steven Palmer Peterson

This feels more like Northern Ireland (#108804)
by Spartacvs

but on a bigger scale and with tanks and artillery on both sides.

You have catholic Ossetians and Protestant Ossetians, Georgia as the Republic of Ireland sympathetic to one side and Russia playing the part of the UK somewhat sympathetic to the other but duty bound as the biggest player in the region to sort out the mess on its doorstep.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Ecch, let's stay out of this. (#108718)
by BlaiseP

These maniacs will be at it for the next century. Want Russia to suffer? Let them bury their dead. There will soon be plenty, and plenty more to come, as they've learned to their shame and horror, first in Afghanistan, then Chechnya, now Georgia.

Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.

Kill 'em all. Now God will know his own.

"Kill them all" (#108724)
by Kierkegaard

and arm them to do so far us.

K, I though You'd Appreciate the Propaganda In This Diary.... (#108730)
by Traveller

...you seem to have an affinity for the use of words and phrases to....move people.

I purposefully used incendiary language to see....how it flew.

Best Wishes, Traveller

Wonderful to see you so passionately involved, (#108746)
by Kierkegaard

Trav. Hence my rabid support.

A young Boy Listening to Stories of the Battle In Budapest.... (#108752)
by Traveller

...bullets whizzing, burning buildings, Russian Tanks rumbling, the people breaking, running, running for their lives, hiding in the country side, in barns and under thorny headges...eventually making their way to Austria and then America...

To sit a small boy on his knee and tell him stories about his escape from Hungary.

How could I not be moved today?

Best wishes, Traveller