Congratulations to Congressional Democrats

7

Assuming that the House and Senate can reconcile a few differences in committee, it looks like the Democrats really are going to send the President an Iraq funding bill with a timetable attached. The passage of similar bills in the House and Senate was an important accomplishment and one that really didn't look much like it was going to happen until it suddenly did. It sends an important signal to the world, the sending of which was very strongly suggested by the American electorate last November and has been virtually demanded by a large and powerful chunk of the majority's base.

Having sent the signal, the majority should now stop fighting. I think it will.

The base will stew and fume, but it will be faced with a serious who-is-your-alternative problem in '08, with memories of 2000 still too fresh in most Democrats' minds for a progressive 3rd party movement to take any kind of serious bite from the party's apple. The fact that elected Democrats are well behind the party's voting base on Iraq policy ain't necessarily such a bad thing. Government is meant to serve the entire electorate, not just one party, and it will not only be Democrats trudging to the polls in November '08.

If you don't buy that political logic, the practical reason for the Democrats to pull back without going the full measure of cutting off funding to an existing military operation is even stronger. Practically speaking, the President simply cannot be compelled to pull troops out of Iraq, even if the Congress denies funds, save by successive impeachments until Ms. Pelosi occupies the Oval Office (which event would come, thank God, before President Gonzales ever got to take the oath). If you don't think President Bush would keep the troops there anyway, even unfunded, you have a different conception of this President than do I. That would be an awful outcome, and nobody involved would come out smelling like a rose.

The real task for Democrats is to best position the party to get a Democrat in the White House and larger Democratic majorities in the Congress. I have no fear at all that any Democratic President will be anywhere near as blinded or stubborn about the Iraq conflict as Bush has been.

Although I do support the Congressional votes this week, and under existing circumstances I do think a pull-out date should be set, to tell the truth if a President I felt I could trust were in office I would slow down on issuing Congressional commands on Iraq policy. I'd like to see a smart, sensible President be given a few weeks to evaluate the intelligence and the diplomatic possibilities and then enact a policy designed to get the best possible outcome. I would be willing to make a serious national investment of the sort we haven't made yet into the task of fixing what we have broken in Iraq--IF an honest, trustworthy President told me that such a task would be likely of success. I frankly can't imagine any serious Democrat in the running who would continue today's nonsensical long-term slow-bleed no-win Iraq policy that does more to incite both the various Iraqi surgencies and international Islamic terrorism than to defend against either.

So my suggestion to Democrats is this: you've entered a strong enough bid on Iraq policy to make it look at least kind of like you mean what you say. When the President raises you, let him buy the pot, and make sure he owns whatever's in there outright for the next 19 months. Your face cards just aren't strong enough right now, and a little birdie tells me you're gonna be starting the next hand aces down.

--


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Interesting times

(#37220)

I can see this going any number of ways.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

No need to get rid (fully) of the timeline

(#37202)

The best proposal I've seen is to pass a 3 month supplemental after Bush vetoes this one, then in 3 months pass another time table, get another veto, pass another 3 month and so on.

The end result, as 2008 gets closer and people lose even more patience with Iraq, is that more and more GOPers will change their mind and vote for a timetable.

This place is my vacation.

The Dems can't just roll over

(#37201)

They need to put up some kind of a fight before they ultimately get rid of the timeline. One problem is, Bush & Co. are chomping at the bit to paint the Dems as traitors and troop-hating pansies so they will be very reluctant to negotiate. Another problem is the media, as they are want to do, will frame this issue in simplistic, black and white terms, and the Repubs will have an easy time of repeating the troop-hating pansies talking point.

Having said all that, I do think Pelosi and Reid have been doing a good job, to date, of countering the spin of the Bushies. Pelosi's, "calm down" quote was very effective. If she and Reid have more of that kind of thing up their sleeves then they might make this fight look less like a mexican standoff and more like a debate. Either way we will see which side's kung fu is better in the next few weeks.

"And now you run in search of the Jedi. They are all dead, save one. And one broken Jedi cannot stop the darkness that is to come." -Darth Sion

I would like

(#37189)

to see a democrat in the oval office in 08. But, if it comes to fruition, I would also like to see them lose at least one branch of congress.

I have always been a believer that one party rule in government does not work. The past 6 years only bolsters my belief.

~At times like these I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates when he said...."I drank what?"

I would prefer

(#37238)

A Republican President together with a Democratic Congress elected with increased majorities who will hold the Presidents feet to the fire in sorting out the mess left behind by one of their own. If Democrats play it right 2012 should provide an even better opportunity for a clean sweep.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

You're right that pullout comes after impeachment.

(#37186)

So let's get on it already. We've got the FISA violations, which are felonies, followed up with the USA removals, which are abuses of official power. Together, they're a pretty overwhelming case.

We should probably start with Gonzales (who would otherwise use procedural moves to protect his capos), then move to Cheney, and, if the President hasn't gotten the message by then, finish the job with him.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Impeachment

(#37198)

That's a tough game to play. I think the Congress has too many other duties to play right now; if they start the impeachment ball rolling, the government will do nothing else for the next year.

I do agree that there is no question that sufficient grounds exist to impeach Bush and Gonzales. Cheny, not so sure. I also think that "start[ing] with Gonzales" is something that has a pretty good chance of happening. That's almost being forced on the Congress.

the temptation to muddle along

(#37181)

I can understand the temptation to muddle along until a Democratic victory in 2008, which I understand is the gist of the diary.

A lot can happen between then and now, however. And more than Iraq is at stake. I am not sure we have the luxury to play a waiting game until Bush's term ends. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran are all in motion now.

If Bush is crazy enough to keep unfunded US troops in Iraq, he certainly wouldn't balk at launching a war against Iran to boost Republican chances in the next election. It's a little too early yet for Democrats to rest on their laurels.

Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just

Complete dishonor

(#37179)

Mr. Trickster,

There is no doubt that the Democratic party is approaching its previous record low of dishonor and folly.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, good about this. You and many others seem to rationalize this here and there, but I don't think I can express just how completely foolish these arguments sound to me.

The enemy is visible and overt and killing people we are responsible for. Our responsibilities are clear. And yet you make political arguments to dismiss the plain facts ?

We all depend on the President to hold steady.

Good lord

(#37298)

Complete dishonor, huh? Would a little introspection as to how Iraq reached this stage be too much to ask?

I don't understand your continued faith in a President who has so badly mishandled such an important undertaking.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

More of the same

(#37226)

By the way, who is the "we all"? Because it certainly is not the majority of Americans who are supporting the congressional Democrats. The only "we all" I can discern are the diehard twenty percenters that believe Bush can do no wrong and/or place partisanship before principle.

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

I can't wait

(#37239)

until it become ten percenters so that way I'm part of an even more exclusive club.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

Sorry Sulla, you don't belong to that club

(#37243)

You are neither unprincipled nor a party loyalist. You belong to a completely different and very exclusive club these days.

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

Well

(#37254)

all kidding aside, to set a timetable for withdrawal dependent upon things not improving seems extremely dishonorable to me. We broke it, we bought it. As long as there are Iraqis dying in droves we have a duty to step up and offer some sacrifices as well if for no other reason than one of honor.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

I don't discount honor as an incentive

(#37264)

But what if our presence only makes the situation worse? Does honor STILL demand we remain?

I don't think this is true anymore.

(#37293)

The vast majority of violence seems to be directed at Iraqis these days, and our presence has become irrelevant except as a way to discourage Iran & Turkey from sending in their own divisions. Plus the few safe havens we're able to establish.

Going in made the situation worse. Staying, not so much.

There has been

(#37278)

arguments like that since the beginning on the right- that our presence there is only encouraging dependency, by us leaving the Iraqis will have to pull themselves up by the boot straps, etc. If I saw any evidence to these arguments they would strike a sympathetic chord in me. But the way I see the situation is that our withdrawal will only embolden the worst elements of this conflict, who would then step up their programs of violence in order to secure more influence for themselves.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

I don't see

(#37285)

how our presence is "dis-emboldening" them. In the abstract, I can understand (though usually not agree) with many of the arguments put forth for this war, but the way the reality has played out I just see the benefits shrinking and the costs rising. Looking at our diminishing expectations for a acceptable conclusion now as compared to 2002-03 makes me think that this trend will continue.

I blame it all on the Internet

Well, in the abstract, I don't see

(#37292)

where the reality of this war costing this country that much. 3,000 American dead out of population 300,000,000 in order to occupy the keystone of the Middle East is by all historical metrics one hell of a bargain.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

I do

(#37303)

aside from the deaths and dismemberments, I believe our perceived strength and deterrence has cratered. It's pretty clear to the world that while we may get into a conflict with a third rate power and destroy their standing army, we're too incompetent to actually execute our plans and still weak in the face of a guerrilla/insurgency conflict. We can topple governments, which may make governments afraid of us, but the real threat is non-governmental groups and they see that they can tie us down and harass us at will. We've lost credibility (who would now trust us if we said we had evidence of Iranian nuclear activities?) and despite what Ken thinks we've damaged our commercial interests in the ME.

I thought we weren't occupying Iraq? Besides, the ability to occupy an area does not by itself advance any interests, especially when the occupation is as porous and mishandled as this one. All in all, I'd say this little adventure has cost us plenty.

I blame it all on the Internet

I never said

(#37314)

we weren't occupying Iraq, but I only speak for myself, and the main reason I wanted us in there was to establish bases for a long term, large scale, presence of American forces in the Middle East. I think our perceived strength and deterrence would benefit from this war if we do exactly that. As to credibility- I've never been one who cares much what the rest of the world thinks of us to begin with. It is my opinion they'll hate us so long as we're rich and powerful no matter what. It isn't like we were all that popular or credible in the world before the war.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

Sorry

(#37328)

if I confused your views on the occupation.

The credibility I was talking about is of our ability to project military force. After the first Gulf War, as far as I could tell the opinion in the world was that our military was so much more technologically advanced and coordinated that there was no credible contestant anywhere to our military supremacy. After the last five years, the message is that yes, we are technologically advanced but it doesn't make nearly as much difference in a guerrilla/insurgent situation as everyone thought it would - that's a loss of credibility in my book, or at least a loss influence.

I blame it all on the Internet

I always thought

(#37332)

what ever military influence the Gulf War gave us was readily checked by Somalia. But again, that is only my take on things.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

That's a good point

(#37338)

but I think that Iraq has turned out to be Somalia x 100.

I blame it all on the Internet

A bargain downpayment

(#37294)

perhaps but the maintenance will kill us.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

Anything is possible

(#37302)

but at this rate it would take us over 50 years to reach Vietnam type casualties.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

Casualties aren't the determining metric

(#37347)

Domestic political support is, always has been always will be.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

That's progress

(#37261)

if you realize that we're doing what we're doing to satisfy honor rather than advance our strategic goals, you're coming around to a more realistic view of the situation! :)

I blame it all on the Internet

As I told Jordan earlier,

(#37273)

I'm not a fan of pundits and this one is generally particularly dense but I think he's got this about right:

LINK.

He's reading AQ, er, Al-Backwards.

(#37295)

Whether they're right or wrong, they view Iraq as the barrel they have us over, and that's why they're recruiting and funneling suicidal maniacs into Iraq rather than elsewhere. They know full well Iraq is costing us far more than Afghanistan ever could, in political capital and in real capital, and they're pressing what they see as an advantage.

In other words, the fact AQ wants to fight us in Iraq should be clue #1 we shouldn't be fighting them there.

Don't agree. You have the symptoms right as well their

(#37411)

motivation but it is not costing us much at all in relative terms; it's costing them far more and their cred is getting shredded, not ours.

AW doesn't and did not want to fight us in Iraq; we forced that upon them. They reacted swiftly, they're far more flexible than we are but they can't win there and the've managed to hack of most Iraqis and most of the Iraqis neighbors. They are not a spent force by any means but they're losing in Iraq, not us.

AQ has hacked off the Shia,

(#37741)

they're still welcome in a lot of the Sunni enclaves, as long as they play nice with the local bosses. That said, their base of support is much smaller than in Taliban Afghanistan.

We didn't "force" them into Iraq. Where did you get that? Al Qaeda is first and foremost a recruiting agency for local insurrections -- big terror is a later addition to their repertoire. Volunteers streamed into Iraq to fight Americans -- volunteers, mind you. These people saw and see Iraq as an opportunity. Not an emergency.

My reading

(#37301)

You're a little closer than Ken, but you're both wrong. "Al Qaeda" is more of a slogan than an organization. AQ-style islamic terrorism is like water: it's always trying to run downhill. Iraq, as an artificial state, has always been low ground, and we blew the dam--Saddam. Our military is pretty awesome with the sandbags, but sandbags are only a local solution, and never a permanent one.

Only a true national government can rebuild the old dam. Perhaps other dam models--regional dams, for example--are possible, but there doesn't seem to be a reputable engineer with a blueprint in sight. In the meanwhile, it's sandbags around a few enclaves of civilization.

As for the water, it did not choose to run into the low ground, nor was it forced. It's just water.

You make it sound like AQ has no overall strategy

(#37305)

whatsoever. I don't think that's right. Whether grand strategy gets communicated to their officers in the field right now is another story...but just taking the Zawahiri quotes on face value as Krauthammer does, he's completely misinterpreting their interest in Iraq. Viz., they have nothing to lose in Iraq, everything to gain. The US is overextended & vulnerable, and they're pressing every advantage they can.

Here's how I see al Qaeda

(#37391)

It's a shadowy organization. I am not at all convinced that there are more than a handful of persons actually involved with the top-down Bin Laden-led (if Bin Laden is still alive) actual al Qaeda. By far AQ's most significant aspect is the political and inspirational leadership supplied by the occasional public pronouncements of its best-known leaders. To that extent there is something of a "strategy," but it's rarely operational, much less tactical. I strongly doubt that there is an AQ "command net" with ranking officers, fields officer, soldiers, etc.

Local cells could fit one of several patterns:

(1) Actual AQ cells that are in touch with command;
(2) AQ cells that were once in touch with command but have had no such communication in some time;
(3) Islamic terrorist cells that have taken the name AQ but have never been in touch with leadership;
(4) Islamic terrorist cells that claim no association with AQ but have adopted its techniques and ideology.

My suspicion is that pattern (1) has become pretty rare, if it exists at all. Groups in pattern (2)-(4) take orders from AQ and have an AQ-led "strategy" only to the extent that suggestions of such strategy occasionally appear in public pronouncements. These groups are primarily out to cause trouble for the West in their local areas, and their methodology is to probe for weakness and then poke when they find a weak spot. When a very weak spot is found, it creates a tendency for migration from areas where such spots don't exist.

Instead of the water analogy, think of Iraq as a great job magnet for yaqpies (young al qaeda professionals). Say there are usually 200 yaqpie openings in a standard Middle Eastern country, but suddenly there are 10,000 openings in Iraq. That job market causes an immediate influx of yaqpies from neighboring nations; the secondary effect is that yaqpies from a bit farther away migrate into the nations on their borders that also border Iraq in order to replace the yaqpies that migrate into Iraq. This increases the yaqpie population in the neighboring states who are then themselves eligible to migrate into Iraq, and the beat goes on until the 10,000 Iraq openings are filled and the openings in neighboring states caused by iraqward migration are themselves fille. There was never a "strategy," but just a process that moved on its own volition until equilibrium was reached in the terrorist labor market.

Even though I was focusing on AQ quotes

(#37407)

in Krauthammer's piece, I can agree with you on overall strategy or lack of it. Today there is little or no top-down strategy. But the fact that jihadis flock to Iraq supports my point anyway: it is obvious to them that the best opportunity to inflict a defeat on the US is in Iraq. I don't think it has much to do with defending Iraq per se, or with worries about a western democracy (they are trying to prevent the US-backed gov't from stabilizing though). In other words, Krauthammer's flat wrong if he think the jihadis are fighting any kind of defensive war in Iraq.

Yeah, I'm with you there

(#37409)

Iraq's an opportunity for them, not a necessity. My only disagreement is in terms of my opinion that AQ is not a top-down organization, which I must confess is founded more in intuition than in hard data, although it's an intuition I feel confident enough about to trumpet to the world.

I will also confess that I didn't read Krauthammer, but was just responding to your words, and Ken's. CK is not high on my list of readable worthies.

Kraut is consistent

(#37283)

Consistently wrong, so it's hardly a surprise that you agree with him.

Let the Sunni take care of AQ in Iraq. With the US out of the way the Sunni and Shia will have to come to some sort of accommodation in order to avoid MAD, at which point AQ in Iraq become more of a liability than an asset to the Sunni and will be dealt with.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

I believe that's what I said, that my agreement with him is

(#37413)

quite rare. First time in years,IIRC. My agreement with you is also quite rare; that happens more often than it does with Ktauthammer.

Your comment above, for example, I agree with in part -- only difference is we're not going to get out of the way.

Greetings from sunny Guatemala

(#37416)

There's no hope for a rapprochement between the Arab Shii and the Sunni. The ulceration of Iraq is now bleeding out into a peritonitis, inevitably fatal. Iraq will become a no-man's land.

Sitting out in my garden, Steely Dan's Midnight Cruiser in my headphones, two torches illuminate the new blooming roses.

Good on ya, Mate

(#37426)

Maybe. Iraq, I mean, too early to tell, I think. May make it, may be a no mans land or may divide. I'll bet the first or last. We'll see.

Enjoy the Roses. :)

Funny

(#37425)

Can't Buy A Thrill? I'm listening to that CD also. Midnight Cruiser was less than 10 minutes ago.

I happen to think

(#37271)

sticking it out until there is some stability in the middle portion of the country satisfies one of my own strategic goals associated with this war- it demonstrates we be cowed by the first sight of blood. But I understand there are others who disagree with me on America's place in the world, the rights and responsibilities that go along with that, and the strategic goals associated with such.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

We are not that far apart

(#37280)

Where we differ is how we go about "sticking it out." This Adminstration has proven time and time again that they will not commit the necessary forces which will allow us to bring this conflict to an acceptable resolution. Bush has stubbornly stuck with a slow bleed strategy that only ensures more casualties and further destablization. The honorable solution would be (and would have been) to send in overwhelming force and suffocate the insurgency. Instead we send in a paltry 20,000 more troops which is nothing more than a glorified public relations move as evidenced by the fact that casualties actually increased in March over February. So while pulling out might not be honorable, neither has been our strategy for the past four years. As far as I am concerned, if we are not going to be serious about our responsibilities and do what is absolutely necessary, then we do less harm by withdrawing.

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

I can not honestly attest

(#37289)

to the numbers of troops we need. My biggest complaint about the war was of the fellas being locked up in large bases and going out in town in vehicles that made inviting targets. Instead they should have been broken up into much smaller contingents and conducting foot patrols, along with Iraqi security forces, in the various population centers. It could be that we have enough troops to do this already and aren’t properly using them, or we may need double or triple the size of the force to bring this about, that is the sort of thing I’d leave to the generals. But either way, the casualties would continue for the foreseeable future.

In regards to withdrawal, the only result I foresee from that is genocide on the scale that would make Darfur, Rwanda, or Bosnia look trivial.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

I Agree With This

(#37281)

completely. The tragedy here lies in the fact that the Administration's errors have created a situation in which (i) the force needed to "suffocate the insurgency" has gone up dramatically, while (ii) the political will to deliver that force has gone down to the point of vanishing. It didn't have to be this way.

That's how it is on this bitch of an earth.

You're right, it didn't

(#37287)

but thats the way it is now, and I just don't see any good outcomes, only less-bad outcomes. The idea that we have a responsibility to fix the mess we created (as put forth by Jordan among others here) has a lot of resonance for me, the problem is that I don't see how we would go about accomplishing it. I think the window for doing it right has passed and we're now in the window of various kinds of bad outcomes. My fear is that we are approaching the window of severely bad to catastrophic outcomes, which would argue for us to stop what we're doing now before it gets worse.

I blame it all on the Internet

I'd Love to Adopt,

(#37297)

and generally am very receptive to, the kind of Ken White/Luis approach to all of this, which is to defer judgment and let the great river of time sort it all out, with the expectation that we'll pretty much muddle through as we always have. And I also understand that, from a simple level of effort perspective, this isn't anywhere close to the size of Vietnam or Korea.

But this was strategically huge. We invaded, justifiably or not, the heart of the Middle East. Think about that. The range of outcomes, for good or ill, was immense. You just don't do something like that unless you are certain to an ontologically perfect degree that you know what you're doing, and that you have mustered the resources to ensure that you will succeed. You don't bet, and you cannot fail. Now, in retrospect, it seems that these people really had no idea what they were doing (Thomas Ricks' Fiasco will just make you cry), and they were just guessing about whether they had the right people in the right numbers to do the thing they really hadn't identified or figured out. It's a travesty, and I hope and believe that history will be brutal toward those responsible -- Don Rumsfeld in particular.

That's how it is on this bitch of an earth.

I think we agree

(#37304)

in general. I'm not that amenable to the "river of time" theory, since I have to live in the here and now and my daughter will inherit the successes and follies of the present day.

As you may have guessed, I was against this war from the beginning (unlike the first Gulf War or Afghanistan). One of the big problems I saw was exactly what you laid out in your second paragraph, that supporters seemed unable or unwilling to accept that there could be any bad outcomes to this. It just seemed like tunnel vision, the shining city on the hill distracted them from the mine field right in front of them. I saw utopianism(!) and obliviousness from the Rs and craven political cowardice from the Ds - Dr. Pangloss meets James Buchanan.

I really wish there was some magic formula to fix things now, but I honestly just don't see it.

I blame it all on the Internet

The enemy is visible and overt?

(#37195)

Who is he? I was under the impression most of the killing in Iraq was being done by Shiite militias, or by Sunnis in reprisal for those killings. In other words, the "people we are responsible for" are killing each other.

This isn't World War II. It isn't even Vietnam, which I assume is what you're referring to in your first sentence. The enemy doesn't wear uniforms. In fact, which groups hate us the most is a constantly-changing variable. First the Sunnis wanted us gone because we got rid of Saddam; now the Shiites want us gone so they can get on with putting the boot to the Sunnis.

In short, I think your attitude, while commendably enthusiastic, simplifies and glosses over reality too much to be useful or accurate.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

Response

(#37194)

I find your reply a little vague, so please correct me if I mis-interpret.

As a beginner, I don't think you can so blithely define honor and dishonor in terms of U.S. government policy actions without taking into account the consent of the governed from whom that government loudly claims to derive its legitimacy and moral standing. The American people may not be long ignored, thank God. For that reason, if none other, the lifetime of the current policy is ticking away.

I consider it certain that the current policy will no longer be operative two years from now. And although I, too, consider the U.S. to have undertaken a duty to protect the Iraqi people, I think the first sentence of this paragraph is a good thing. As I indicated initially, I have a relatively high degree of confidence that the PR value of our occupation of Iraq to the insurgencies and to the international Islamic terrorist movement exceeds the positive benefits that our security operations achieve. In my opinion, we are not playing a positive role in the region currently.

As I have indicated here and several other times, I am ready for our nation to pay a real price to achieve a positive outcome to the Iraq adventure; however, I am not at all certain that there is anything we can do to achieve that, and unfortunately, I don't trust the current President's statements on the situation in Iraq to be true in even a general sense. So my preferred solution would be to elect a real President to evaluate the situation and propose a policy to achieve the best end possible, whether that policy be departure or escalation. I can't imagine that it would be a continuation of the current methodology.

You're fighting the war of your imagination, Mr. Alegria

(#37190)

The great mass of the Iraqi conflict is between Sunni and Shiites -- we are a third party to that conflict. We undoubtedly have enemies in Iraq, but neither side in that particular spiral of revenge is fully our ally or fully our enemy. You are speaking in terms of a simple war with a clear enemy because that is what has emotional resonance; that is what bucks you up.

This is a case where victory does not mean defeating the enemy. It means enabling a political compromise between two factions with centuries of bad blood between them. You would be more persuasive if you spoke of the challenge realistically, rather than pretending it's some other war.

"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs

The responsibilities are clear

(#37185)

The question is whether or not you are capable of living up to them. Look at today's newspapers for a answer:

A devastating series of bombings in a crowded market in a Shiite Muslim neighborhood of Baghdad and in a predominantly Shiite town north of the capital killed more than 130 Iraqis on Thursday, the same day a new U.S. envoy asserted at his swearing-in that the U.S. mission in Iraq was not an "impossible" one.

I agree with the unenthused new ambassador. It is not impossible that the US can stop the violence in Iraq. Maybe if yous all got on your knees together and prayed, things would work out.

Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just

We're aware of how it sounds to you.

(#37184)

I say this in all honesty, we occupy a different reality from the one you occupy. There is no common ground; we just have to tolerate one another.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

In this instance, It appears that you would do better

(#37200)

To find a common ground: "A solid majority of Americans want Congress to fully fund the war in Iraq."

"The GOP is polling to see how the public reacts to the way it’s trying to frame the debate. What the polling shows is that, if they can persuade the public that the issue is “fully funding the war,” “not adding pork to a war bill,” or “Democrats in Congress micromanaging the war,” they win. That’s actually useful information. If the GOP talking points were polling at 40%, they’d need a very different political strategy."

Seems that more agree with Mr. Alegria than Trickster.

The Jingoist

It would be a shame

(#37384)

if the debate degenerated into such a sham, since no one is proposing cutting funds needed to equip our soldiers.

If Congress passed a bill saying all funds appropriated must be used for withdrawal, is that "defunding the war"? Of course not. The GOP is invoking these imaginary scenarios of soldiers running out of ammunition in order to muddy the waters, and for no other reason.

If Republicans really do manage to convince people that they are standing up for our soldiers against the mean Democrats who want to get them killed, I will frankly despair.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

Rather than rely on GOP polls

(#37203)

I suggest looking here:

www.pollingreport.com/iraq

This place is my vacation.

are you disputing

(#37204)

Would never dream

(#37218)

of disputing THE math!

This place is my vacation.

Heh. Lies, ... Statisitics. Polls to the right of me, polls

(#37250)

to the left of me.

Ya pays yer money and takes yer choice... :)

Back in the day Biden and Hagel had this

(#37142)

thought which should be shared.

...Although no one doubts our forces will prevail over Saddam Hussein's, key regional leaders confirm what the Foreign Relations Committee emphasized in its Iraq hearings last summer: The most challenging phase will likely be the day after -- or, more accurately, the decade after -- Saddam Hussein.

Once he is gone, expectations are high that coalition forces will remain in large numbers to stabilize Iraq and support a civilian administration. That presence will be necessary for several years, given the vacuum there, which a divided Iraqi opposition will have trouble filling and which some new Iraqi military strongman must not fill. Various experts have testified that as many as 75,000 troops may be necessary, at a cost of up to $ 20 billion a year. That does not include the cost of the war itself, or the effort to rebuild Iraq....

Well so much for the long term being out of the mix.

There is always the possibility that there is an Ike in the current demorcratic presidential nominee mix but todate they both appear to be in favor of Iraq as a done deal before the 08 election is ever held. Now that may simply reflect their genuflecting to the anti-war base or the more worrisome case of a general migration to a "Taft like" foreign policy.

““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H

Also, of note

(#37152)

is this Panglossian quote:

That presence will be necessary for several years, given the vacuum there, which a divided Iraqi opposition will have trouble filling and which some new Iraqi military strongman must not fill. Various experts have testified that as many as 75,000 troops may be necessary, at a cost of up to $ 20 billion a year.

Bush-bots routinely criticized such talk as defeatist while in fact 75,000 troops and $20 billion per year for several years is downright Panglossian.

Had Dubya said 150,000 for ten or fifteen years at the beginning our nation would be much better off, today

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

You took the words out of my mouth, er keyboard

(#37154)

Seriously, I was about to use the exact same passage to make the exact same point. 2002's "alarmists" were actually far too optimistic. The op ed is certainly a window into that time, when the war drums were beating so loudly that it was hard to think - and even harder to talk about your thoughts if you had them.

Then again, those Biden/Hegel predictions might have been a bit more realistic if a more prescient paragraph in the same letter had been heeded by the Administration:

This is one reason why we will need our allies to help rebuild Iraq. Cementing a broad coalition today will keep the pressure on Hussein to disarm, build legitimacy for the use of force if he refuses, reduce the risks to our troops and spread the burden of securing and reconstructing Iraq. Going it alone and imposing a U.S.-led military government instead of a multinational civilian administration could turn us from liberators into occupiers, fueling resentment throughout the Arab world.

Instead of actually consulting our allies to reach consensus, we bullied our way through the UN virtually tout seul, barely even deigning to pretend that we were seeking something other than a rubber stamp. Thus was built the "grand coalition" that has been so touted in the right-wing blogosphere and that left us bearing 90% of the costs and taking 90% of the casualties. It also left Iraq and the Arab world at least 90% convinced that they were confronting nothing less than another invasion by a Christian superpower, as opposed to perceiving our action as the benevolent intervention we declared it to be. That inevitably "turn[ed] us from liberators into occupiers, fueling resentment throughout the Arab world."

This argument is old, and so is its answer

(#37180)

Mr. Trickster,

In that there are no current or potential allies which can add any significant number of troops worth deploying. This desire for a coalition is a chimera.

Or perhaps its only value would have been in its effect as psychological prop for US Democrats.

The answer may be old

(#37215)

It's also incomprehensible. We assembled a model coalition in 1990. Assembling something similar for this operation would've exponentially increased our chance at success.

An international coalition

(#37224)

An international coalition was put together to go into Afghanistan because it was a fight against Islamists. This can't be said of Iraq where US is still fighting mostly Iraqi nationalists. Why any nation on earth would want to participate in this, you haven't made clear. Blair tried to pass a UNSC resolution against Iraq before the invasion but it failed. There wasn't sufficient justification for it. I think Luis is correct.

Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just

Then it shouldn't have been done at all

(#37231)

But I think that proper American diplomacy aimed at finding a common answer to a common problem, as opposed to whipping the dogies into a herd, might well have achieved a true coalition. If it had been done properly, by which I mean under U.N. auspices and including a 1990-style coalition that included Arab soldiers to post on street corners, it might well have worked. It also would've bolstered the rule of international law, rather than spitting in its eye.

I wouldn't underestimate the power of American persuasion, at least as that power stood before being damaged by this adventure. We might've been able to renew the 1990 coalition or something like it; absent such a result, we should not have invaded Iraq.

Sometimes one has to do things one self. A 1990 style coalition

(#37256)

would never have occurred; the Arab nations would send token forces to show their displeasure at Saddam invading Kuwait but they would not have set one foot inside Iraq then -- or in 2003. The difference is that in 1990, while they wouldn't have gone, they'd have cheered us on behind the scenes.

By 2003, dynamics in the ME were considerably different and lacking occupation of another nation, Iraq while a threat to stability was little more than a minor irritant to them. When Bush announced regime change in Iraq was a goal of his administration in 2002, the entire ME shuddered because they knew he would do it and because they knew it would destabilize the region probably for many years -- which is why we did it.

Perhaps we should not have invaded Iraq as you say -- but we needed to do something. The festering in the ME would merely have continued to get worse. Flawed as it is, what's been done was better than sitting on our hands.

Myopic argument

(#37211)

There are plenty of allies, regional, European, Asian, with enough trade power in the ME to make a truly formidable collective bargainer. Troops are only a small part of the equation. How about a French-Russian-German alliance to pressure/bribe Iran into supporting a new Iraqi gov't? That's more what it sounds like Biden/Hagel are gettting at. Instead we find ourselves increasingly unable to sustain an occupation that is nearly universally despised.

we bullied our way through the UN virtually tout seul,

(#37163)

actually that wasn't the case. We put forward a proposal and the Security Counsel passed it. I missed the bullying.

What was so suprising about the vote, is the oil scandal which was going on at the same time, er Saddam making material payments under the table.

The proposal that Europe was going to save the day in Iraq, well that was never going to happen. But maybe what you had in mind was giving the northern Iraqi oil fields to the Turks. Giving half of the country back to the Turks probably wasn't going to work but it was another option.

Net, net at the end of the day, it was understood, at least by Congress, that Iraq was going to be a long tailed situation. You have to give them credit for that but then contrast and compare that with their recent vote.

““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H

The failure to plan long term falls

(#37151)

on the Administration. Paul Bremer for example.

"Mission Accomplished" should have been "Great first inning, but now the real work begins"

But this diary does prove Orwell's point about the need of tyrants to re-write history.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

letting State run Iraq

(#37165)

certainly appears to be an error bta there was no civil war under Bremer.

As for the banner, read Bush's speach which he gave on the Lincoln as it should give you some pause.

““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H

Loop this

(#37174)

"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the Battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed."

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

As for Daily Kos

(#37140)

This is not close to being as well written as Trickster's piece here, but the essential points seems related.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

The replies to that post

(#37141)

make me want to cry.

I do hate it when the kos-folk make themselves look like utter morons.

Sounds like truly awful french toast,

(#37214)

but then, I can't stand Triple Sec so I'm biased.

As for impeachment

(#37138)

Pelosi comes after Cheney.

It appears you are making the same mistake Al (I'm in charge) Haig did.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

Pelosi comes after Cheney

(#37144)

for exactly what would be the first question.

““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H

Succession to the Presidency

(#37197)

That would be an interesting play - oust Cheney, then impeach Bush.

A BDS dream.

They won't even get Rove, though Rove should walk away now.

But the egos and loyalty in this admin keeps too many at their jobs too long after they have choked.

See Bird Dogs last couple diaries.

The Jingoist

I'm with you

(#37129)

Any posters here have sufficient cred at dkos to post this there and not be immediately called out as a "concern troll" or "neo-con bushitlercochumpymchalliburcheneyco"?

Good Diary, Trickster. I agree with much of it, I do have

(#37128)

one idle comment.

Re: that smart,sensible, honest and trustworthy President. That really sounds great. Seriously. However I've known twelve and not a single one met all your criteria -- few met even two.

And it seems to be getting worse instead of better...

Good, Ken's alive

(#37150)

What a surprising reaction. . . .

Actually, "honest" might've been a bridge too far, but in my opinion most of the Presidents in my lifetime meet the other two.

Shouldn't be a surprise, really. I've never stinted telling you

(#37169)

on the rare occasions when you're right... :)

Well, let's roll together honest and trustworthy as one item; that leaves two items -- smart and sensible.

My take is that Truman, Eisenhower, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 were the latter but not necessarily the former. OTOH, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Carter and Clinton were the former but not the latter. Roosevelt comes closest to being both but I'm unsure he's really there, enigma in a riddle, that one. Not sure yet that Bush 43 is either, too soon to tell.

I'll give Carter, Ford, Eisenhower and Truman (in that order) a "relatively honest and trustworthy" rating; Kennedy and Bush 41 are on the cusp on that, too soon to tell. None of the others get there. I think there's a message in the period those guys served...

Well there was always Truman

(#37147)

but...

““I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we’re Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration!”” –H

Ha!

(#37137)

And it seems to be getting worse instead of better...

You're caught! You do believe in history!

I AM history... :)

(#37172)

You're just not following

(#37158)

Things have always been getting worse.

Nah, most things are better than ever, only politics is in

(#37170)

How disappointing.

(#37156)

And here I've been telling all my friends that I've come across the man that gave Henry Ford his 'bunk' line ... . Drat.

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

Innocent, didn't do that. Actually, I cannot here reveal the

(#37173)

line I gave Henry; Posting Rules, you know... :)