And my predictions are never wrong.

Senate - Dems pick up five seats.
House - Dems pick up 23 seats.
Tiebreaker - Dems win MT, NJ, MO, TN - lose VA

accept the title. But ya gotta take a shot

Senate: Dems gain 2
House: Dems gain 13
Dem winners: MT, MO

Heck I don't even know if I can back into my own numbers :)

1. Dems gain 6 seats.
2. Dems gain 32 seats.
3. Dems win MT, NJ, MO, VA. Repubs take TN.

1. Ds pick up 3
2. Ds gain 18
3. Ds win MT + NJ

but what the hey...

I'll take:

Senate: Dems +5
House: Dems +23
Senate races: Dems win MT, NJ, two out of three MO, VA, TN
(that OK?)

1. Dems gain 6 seats
2. Dems gain 24 seats
3. Dems win MT, NJ, MO, VA; Reps win TN.

Dems +4, flipping RI, PA, MT, MO.
Dems +19.
Dems win MT, NJ, MO.

My son just won us a 35-lb pumpkin in a guess-the-pumpkin-weight contest, so let's see if I can make it a family tradition.

1. Dems get 4

2. Dems gain 21

3. Dems win MT and NJ

1. D: + 4
2. D: + 16
3. D: MO, NJ, VA; R: TN*, MT

* Yeah, I'll eat my hat if Junior pulls this one out. Corker's apparent total lack of charisma and campaign sense doesn't outweigh either the massive ad-money infusions coming from the national party**, or the unshakeable sense that Junior is slick and opportunistic (as opposed to merely ambitious, which is a plus, I'd say).

** The ads coming from the national party, as opposed to the feel-good treacle coming from Corker's campaign, are as mean as they've been portrayed in the national media coverage. And I suspect they'll work just fine.

N.B. Like JM below, I make no claims that my predictions are even self-consistent.

I like getting to revise predictions up til the day before. I don't really think of what we are doing now as actual predictions, but more like running projections.

I think it has been a good week for Democrats nationwide as the biggest political stories were almost all stories about unseemly and/or dishonest Republican campaign tactics. Not only do these stories make Republicans look desparate, and thus like losers, but like Bad People. I sense that the GOP is going to be playing with fire if they keep ratcheting up the nasty.

This reminds me of 1998, when the election occurred as the Congress had scheduled impeachment hearings. Republicans were expecting to make off-year gains in the House, but a couple of weeks before the election, pollsters were predicting a disappointing gain in the single digits. The national party ran a series of ads attacking Clinton for the Lewinsky affair, the public reaction was not real favorable, and the Democrats actually wound up making small gains in that election in what seemed to be a reaction to the ads.

Projection as for now:

+6 Senate seats
+27 House seats
MT: Burns has made a little late movement, but this one I'm not too worried about
MO: razor-thin margin for Talent is not enough for an incumbent - upcoming polls will be key, to gauge public reaction to Fox-Limbaugh dealy - I like our chances here
VA: I was not feeling real great about this one a couple of days ago, but I don't think Allen would've done what he did yesterday if his people didn't think he was losing - it was desperate and it will backfire - I'd put money on this one
NJ: the omens are much better for the GOP here than they were a week ago - the only thing that gives me any comfort is that NJ has a history of closing late and Democratic
TN: Corker is clearly leading but he got raked across the coals in the national press at the end of the week - will those national sentiments have the same impact in this Southern state? Next week's polls are likely to tell the tale - either it gets real steep and real uphill for Ford or it goes to the last-minute, where I like Ford as the charismatic guy to close

I mean predicting later.

I do have a question: there's a gambling module for Drupal that would let people bet on the outcome of different events. I thought it would be interesting to try, particularly for political contests. Is anyone interested in something like that?

Oh, wait... nevermind.

Guess I best sit this one out, huh?

Dems pick up 7
In the house 38
Sweep....

If the dems lose it will be in Virgina and Tenn. I still see both these races breaking towards the out of power party.... Still maybe jackson is closer with two... I somehow doubt it.... :)

1. Dems +2
2. Dems +9
3. Dems win MT & NJ.

1. Dems +4 in Senate
2. Dems +17 in House
3. Dems win MT, NJ, lose in MO, TN and VA

PS. I would have included RI as a close one.

Dems gain 2 in Senate
Dems gain 8 in House
Dems win NJ, Reps other four

Rahm Emmanuel storms the DNC and attempts to throttle Howie, Nancy Pelosi is shocked by the outcome but miraculously keeps the same expression on her face. There is a glut of never-used festooning gear and novelty business cards put up for sale on Ebay.

Is Lieberman considered a Democrat for the purposes of this contest?

I think most posters are assuming it, but it's not clear from the wording. Anyway, I'm much less worried about Sanders going over to the GOP than Lieberman. The GOP fundraising apparatus is behind Joe 100% and it's not a gift, it's a loan.

That said, my prediction:

Dems hold NJ and pick up seats in MT, RI, OH, PA, MO and VA for a gain of 6. Then Lieberman goes over to the GOP, making it 50-50 again with Cheney casting the deciding vote for control of the senate.

In the house, the aggregate popular vote for all congressional districts will be 56-44 favoring democrats. Despite this overwhelming popular vote differential, they will gain 14 seats in the house, one shy of a majority.

Bush will declare these results a vote of confidence in his administration, and the usual pundits will fall all over themselves to pronounce Karl Rove a genuis.

and we can vote up until Election Day.

Maybe the tech Gods can somehow make it "sticky?"

1. Dems gain 5
2. Dems gain 19.
3. Dems win MT, TN, NJ; Reps win MO, VA.

Those are my guesses and I'm sticking to them. (And a WAG every one of them)

Senate -- Dems +6
House -- Dems +32
Dems win MT, NJ, MO, and VA. Reps win TN.

Come on big money!!!

1. Dems gain 4 seats
2. Dems gain 20 seats
3. Dem win NJ, VA, MT; Reps win TN, MO

These numbers would be much higher were it not for the relatively recent efficiency gains in computerized gerrymandering - house landslides are really no longer possible - a party would have to be far less effective than the current GOP which would require, I think, a conscious and determined effort. In the Senate, we'll see the impact of the rise of the 'Western Democrat' continually over the next twenty years, but it won't have a big impact this year.

[Edit: Moved MT from GOP to Dem]

Go read the results of Instapundit's poll on the election.

1. D +6
2. D +23
3. Dems win MT, NJ, MO, VA, lose TN

are precisely what they were several months ago:

The House is a toss-up, too close to call.

The Republicans will hang on to the Senate.

Republicans will win in TN, VA, MO, Dems will take OH, NJ. Too close to call: PA, RI. Upset picks: Burns in MT, Steele overtakes Cardin in MD.

Why do I think this? Because the media--and the polls it pays and operates--have done the US public a gigantic disservice this election cycle by false polling, slanted reporting, and wishful thinking. The premature triumphalism of the Democrats, plus the incredibly ugly blitz of TV advertising (in which, for the first time ever, the 2 parties have been dead even in mud-slinging) is going to keep a lot of swing voters at home, convinced that the Dems have already won or that there is no difference between candidates; meanwhile the GOP will be doing its usual last-minute busing of nursing homes to the polling stations. The Dems' black base, by contrast, is either indifferent--or as in MD, about to secretly vote Repub. This year will also see an unprecedented number of early and absentee ballots in states like VA and MO--and they skew heavily Repub (remember Florida in 2000?)

To my mind Barron's predictions, based solely on money spent, has been a far better election indicator over the past decade than any public opinion poll--and as far as I know, the numbers bear that out. Their predictions this year pretty much tally with mine.

A win of both houses, no matter how narrow, will be proclaimed by either party as a mandate. Why? Because the party losing both houses will correctly be perceived as suffering a stinging setback at the hands of the voters. If the loser is the Democrats this year, that defeat will include a large portion of the media as well, whose future credibility will be close to zero.

My prediction therefore (just as in most recent elections in Europe and Israel) is: a vote producing even more gridlock. And we've seen how well that works.

1. Dems take 6 in the Senate
2. Dems take 26 in the House
3. Dems take MT, NJ, MO, VA, Reps win TN

See you Tuesday night!

would whatever Senate results allow Joe Lieberman tipping point control over the US Senate.

50 D & 49 R & Joe L, correct? If Joe goes with the GOP its 50-50 and Cheney breaks the tie.

With those results, Joe then opens a political power bidding war. Cross Joe and he crosses the aisle. How often could he do that and could he garner genuine concessions?

well, maybe two:

Hillary Clinton will win reelection to the Senate. And she will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2008. But you knew I thought that already. Better get ready to try and stop her....

= = =

Dems win 5 seats in Senate
Dems win 26 seats in House
Dems win MT, NJ, VA; lose TN and MO

whose prediction is the most erratic be named Gluteus Maximus?

and takes your guess:

1. Dems + 4 seats
2. Dems + 23 seats
3. MT, NJ, VA go Dem
MO, TN go GOP

1. Dems + 2
2. Dems + 16
3. Dems win VA, GOP wins TN, MT, MO and NJ

Bonus pts. GOP wins Maryland.

Yes, I know this entry is late.

... I'm going to avoid this place like the plague for the next few days.

...here goes.

Senate - Dems pick up 6 seats.
House - Dems pick up 24 seats.
Tiebreaker - Dems grab MO, MT, NJ, VA - Lose TN (grrr)