Enrollment around 80% and counting

It was previously suggested here that "you don't know how many of the 2.1 million have enrolled, but most likely well less than half" (emphasis mine) with the oft-repeated claim being that a majority of people who selected Obamacare plans would not make the necessary premium payment to complete the purchase of those plans. 

 

Those assertions were based on preliminary numbers and/or what I personally would consider bizarre assumptions and extrapolations. We now have more data from the insurance companies themselves (note that this information was never available to the WH, contra some suggestions), and in fact the rates of payment are already much higher than "well less than half" and are more like 80%, even before the January 31 date that some insurers have set as the deadline. From CNN (emphasis again mine): 

Around one in five people who picked health insurance policies on the state and federal exchanges last year haven't paid their first month's premiums, according to insurers polled by CNNMoney. These folks will likely see their policy selection canceled and they'll be left uninsured. Some 2.1 million people signed up for a plan in time for their coverage to start January 1, according to the Obama administration. But with the payment deadlines stretching until January 31 at the latest, anywhere between 12% and 30% of those folks still haven't paid up, insurers say. [...] The true enrollment figure likely won't be known for a few weeks. 

The idea that most people going to the trouble of choosing the best plans for their needs would then turn around and not pay the premium never made sense to me personally and presumably we can now all agree that it is conclusively and empirically incorrect. Jordan's estimate of a "8%-25%" dropout rate looks like a very reasonable prediction. It started to become quite clear that "earlier estimates" were wildly wrong and that at least "70% to 85% of selectees [were] enrolling" by mid/late January, but it's worth asking why and how this idea that most signups would not convert into coverage persisted to that point. My own opinion, take it for whatever it's worth, is that there are many sources out there with analysis and estimates that are critical of Obamacare but that don't hold up under scrutiny. I base that opinion on either clicking through to the primary numbers in some cases, when I've had the time and motivation, or on trying to work out whether the suggested scenario makes sense or else feels contrived and unlikely. Ditto for any given anecdote that gets a lot of media play. Having said that, most of us don't have lots of extra time to run down every claim that gets pushed our way, so it is always appreciated when a skeptical vetting is conducted prior to these claims being deployed. 

 

 

 

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I have, at last, successfully signed up...

(#313144)

for Obamacare via Blue Cross/Blue Shield Kansas City. Premium: $8 & change per month.

 

Too, too funny.

It is the poisoned cup. It is too late.

Didya have insurance prior or are you an expansion #?

(#313146)

.

Wha-huh, catchy?

(#313150)

Am I supposed to understand that?

 

Is this some sort of test?

It is the poisoned cup. It is too late.

He Wants To Know. . .

(#313152)
M Scott Eiland's picture

. . .if this policy replaces one you already had, or if you hadn't had coverage before now (and would therefore be an additional policy that exists solely due to Obamacare).

The universe may well have been created without a point--that doesn't imply that we can't give it one.

thanks, M Scott

(#313153)

The answer is that my policy exists solely due to Obamacare. I would otherwise be entirely uncovered.

It is the poisoned cup. It is too late.

That's very good news

(#313157)
HankP's picture

incurring unbelievably expensive medical costs (which is pretty easy to do even with relatively minor problems) can ruin your life.

 

I blame it all on the Internet

Sounds like a great deal. High deductible? -nt-

(#313145)

.

"Hell is truth seen too late." --Thomas Hobbes

Well, no kidding!

(#313147)

Trouble is, hardly anybody with an IQ under 140 could have worked their way through the labyrinth, in time.

It is the poisoned cup. It is too late.

Obviously untrue

(#313158)
HankP's picture

as I didn't have any problems. It just takes a bit of reading and research.

 

I blame it all on the Internet

It doesn't look much harder than filing taxes (or I'd say

(#313151)

harder than a 1040-EZ, but easier than a self-employed freelance filing with a half dozen schedules. 

"Hell is truth seen too late." --Thomas Hobbes

No, Jordan, my friend.

(#313154)

It was even harder than that.

It is the poisoned cup. It is too late.

Sorry to hear that, but glad you got coverage, and hope

(#313156)

it's good coverage. 

"Hell is truth seen too late." --Thomas Hobbes

You kids theses days

(#313155)

Always complaining about how hard it is, wanting something for nothing....

“The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.” -George Bernard Shaw

A couple of my friends have found it uber confusing as well

(#313149)

There's a flaw in this model where we all have to be experts in law, nutrition, finance, health insurance, etc. to avoid getting ripped off as consumers.

The Caveat Emptor society

(#313166)
HankP's picture

is nothing new. That's the way it's been since, well, forever. That's why every American over 10 years of age is so cynical.

 

I blame it all on the Internet

And yet so many have

(#313148)

The conclusion you can draw is pretty obvious.

“The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.” -George Bernard Shaw

For the record,

(#312928)
Bird Dog's picture

I updated the percentage in this diary, so your motive in using of an outdated quote is fairly obvious.

"Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency."

--Barack Obama, January 2009

I linked and quoted that diary

(#312936)

and I have no idea what you are suggesting about my motive. 

 

But anyway my argument is that the "well less than half" idea was never plausible. 

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

Look,

(#313043)
Bird Dog's picture

you brought me into this in your diary. After new facts came in, I updated accordingly. The facts that we know so far is that the number who went from uninsured to insured is around 169,000 to 655,000. If you think that's something to crow about, then by all means, caw-caw away.

"Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency."

--Barack Obama, January 2009

"motive impugning"

(#312937)

terrible when some do it, just fine when its BD i guess.

“The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.” -George Bernard Shaw

How dare you impugn his impugning! nt

(#312939)
HankP's picture

.

I blame it all on the Internet

After the bloodshed settles down here

(#312952)

I know you'll both be cheering on the Seahawks =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

Yeah, but when people find out about the death panels

(#312913)

This puppy's gonna come crashing down.

How are they going to "find out" about the death panels?

(#312915)
Jay C's picture

If the panels do their work properly, the people will all be dead - and you know who "tells no tales....." ??

you know who "tells no tales....." ??

(#312917)

Hitler.

Well, you gotta have some penalty

(#312914)

to deter free riders... the trick is to manage the demographics to prevent adverse selection effects from raising premiums for the rest of us. 

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson